The planet wipes its eyes out of amazement, observing abroad policy just begun the second Trump presidency. First, the U.S. president began to push himself into his immediate strategical environment, threatening to pay criminal duties and provoking Colombia, Canada and Mexico to a political response. Now he's willing to break the rules on the another side of the ocean, wanting to rid Palestinians of the Gaza Strip, put her under US control and then Turn into a riviera The Mediterranean.
It has nothing to do with isolationism that Trump has frequently been accused of. abroad policy is alternatively visible here, which puts on the wind multilateral standards of global order and even has imperial features.
U.S. direct neighbors were peculiarly badly hurt. As a rule, Canadians are considered rather relaxed and highly friendly. However, with their threat to customs and repeated on Monday a request to Canada became the 51st U.S. state, U.S. president Trump yet poured out the bitterness spell.
Many Canadians presently boycott Florida oranges in their supermarkets. During NFL and NBA matches The fans buzz erstwhile the American national anthem is played, and hashtag #BOYCOTTUSA has been popular for X in Canada for respective days.
— It is time to choose products produced in Canada, says Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “ Look at the labels. Anyone can contribute to that. Whenever you can, choose Canada.
All of this, however, small conceals the fact that Canada in fact would have small to argue the US, If her confederate neighbour utilized all his power.
On Monday Trump suspended fresh duties on Canadian and Mexican products for the time being — initially for 30 days After both countries made concessions on border controls. However, Canadians have no illusions that this will last for long.
— Make no mistake, Canada and Ontario will proceed to be at hazard of customs tariffs, warns Doug Ford, Prime Minister of Ontario Province. — Whether it is tomorrow, next month, or next year, erstwhile the agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada will be renegotiated, Trump will proceed to usage customs threats to get what he wants.
The Canadians feel betrayed due to the fact that previously saw the U.S. as the most crucial ally of their country. During his first term, Trump renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA, which is now known as USMCA. Threatening to impose duties that would illegal under a contract he signed himselfThe president of the United States is compromising the credibility of his country.
Unpredictability as an instrument for abroad policy
The Canadians are shocked. Suddenly, nothing that was certain until late seems to apply. “You don’t have friends, you have business,” said French president Charles de Gaulle. This conviction fits perfectly into Trump's fresh world.. The typical of the fresh US president is besides that no 1 knows precisely what his real intent is and how far he is willing to go in exchange for any concessions.
This reminds any observers “madman theory” once invented by Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon. It utilized unpredictability as a tool to convince the another side to surrender; then it was China. In fact, however, the rate is much higher. What the Canadians and Mexicans are presently experiencing, like plans for the Gaza Strip, seems to prelude the fundamental reorientation of American abroad policy.
Trump as if by accident disassembles the post-war U.S. abroad policy framework. Under the influence of 2 planet wars, the West, with its leading power, erstwhile concluded that a reliable global order was needed to prevent wars between large and powerful and tiny and defenceless.
He realized that in the end powerful besides benefit from unchangeable order based on the rule of a fair balance of interest that enables economical improvement and prosperity.
That was the reason why America invested its strength in The multilateral order we know today. And she decided to exert her influence mainly through these institutions and usage them as a tool to carry out American interests.
These observations from 2 devastating wars seem to no longer apply to Trump. Like Vladimir Putin believes in global politics as type of zero full game. Therefore, trade agreements that let the EU, Canada and Mexico to have trade surpluses with the US can only be incorrect in its eyes.
David Silpa/UPI photograph via Newscom / PAPConference of Donald Dead and Vladimir Putin. Helsinki, 16 July 2018.
Trump believes that the multilateral order of the planet imposes unnecessary shackles on “Goliat”, or USA. And that it is better for the most powerful country in the planet to usage its large importance to form bilateral relations for its own benefit alternatively than to search a fair balance of interest to the benefit of all.
“Trump does not see laws, principles and standards as something that should limit its behaviour,” he writes Ivo Daalder, erstwhile U.S. Ambassador to NATO, in analysis for POLITICO. "The only language he understands is the language of strength."
As the historian Jennifer Mittelstadt argues in an essay published in The fresh York Times, Trump is now the most influential typical of the old "swingerenist" school of thought, which in the 1920s agitated against the accession of America to the League of Nations, the forerunner of the UN. It besides opposed the accession of the States to planet War II, and later any multilateral agreements that threatened to restrict US sovereignty.
Trump's expansion plans are no joke.
This trend was already visible during Trump's first term. However, His ideas were little mature then, and he was constantly held back. by more traditionally oriented members of their administration, alleged adults.
But even then there were signs that Trump's instincts They are inclined to usage the American power to the limitless, regardless of morality or global treaties or institutions. It is said that he repeatedly asked his employees — for example, in North Korea — why the U.S. has atomic weapons if they do not want to usage them.
Doesn't mean Trump would actually usage a bomb. But for him Premature restraint makes no senseBecause it deprives the US of the ability to force another countries to act in the interests of America.
In another words, if another countries don't believe Washington would have utilized atomic weapons anyway, may not reliably endanger to usage it to force concessions. And Trump's businessman thinks that bad negotiating tactics are not to usage all available resources to strengthen his own power.
Some experts call Trump's approach "a predatory abroad policy". It follows the motto: If we have power, why don't we usage it?? Therefore, his plans for territorial expansion towards Greenland and the threats concerning the Panama Canal are not a joke. In his inaugural speech, Trump has already made remarks on this subject, which have been given far besides small attention.
— The United States one more time sees itself as a developing nation, 1 that increases our prosperity, expand our territory, expanding our cities, raising our expectations and carrying our flag to fresh and beautiful horizons," Trump said.
EPA/Aaron Schwartz / POOL / PAPDonald Trump at National Prayer Breakfast. Washington, February 6, 2025.
Both the powerful positivism and colonial expansionism seem to originate straight from the 19th and first half of the 20th century in Europe, erstwhile it was rather average that larger countries swallowed smaller ones and always sought to grow their own sphere of influence and territory. The return of Russian imperialism and war to Europe in the fresh millennium seems archaic and completely out of time from our perspective.
For Trump, the war in Ukraine is just a confirmation of what he already believes: that the most powerful states in the planet are naive and stupid, if they do not exploit the benefits of their power.
To date, America has been regarded as a guarantor and anchor of the multilateral planet order, even if it has late served reluctantly and with limited resources. However, Trump's predatory abroad policy not only means that planet order may lose its anchor, but in utmost cases the U.S. may even become another destabilising factor, which threatens this order.
This applies to both Greenland, which Trump wants to take against the will of Denmark and the Greenlandites themselves, and the Gaza Strip, where a forced transfer of the population would besides constitute serious offence against global law. “Do you like it or not, with Trump taking office, the rule-based order has come to an end,” says Daalder.
It is now besides becoming clear how crucial and essential it was for European countries to abandon old behaviour patterns in abroad policy after devastating planet wars and launching a European unification project. Finally, if all European country were at the mercy of the fresh U.S. desire to rule, it would be much easier to blackmail it than the EU as a whole.
The EU may inactive be a “vegetarian among carnivores” in military terms, as Sigmar Gabriel erstwhile said. However, In economical terms, it surely has teeth and weight comparable to the USA. It is so in a much better negotiating position towards Trump than, for example, Canada or Mexico.
