Christopher W. Smith, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for east Europe, and 2 another U.S. officials quietly went to Belarus last week, where they met both dictator Alexander Lukashenko and head of national safety service. This was Lukashenko's first gathering with a high-ranking state department authoritative in 5 years. According to experts, it can announce The beginning of thawing in relations between the US and Russia's closest ally.
An American visit to Minsk occurred on Wednesday, the day after the telephone conversation of US president Donald Trump with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. This may signal the reopening of Washington to the leaders of states isolated by the West due to their repressive policies.
‘Special’ diplomatic operation
After talking to Lukashenko Smith with 2 American officials, he went to a village close the border with Lithuania and picked up 3 men released by the Belarusian KGB: 1 American and 2 local political prisoners.
When dark fell, the Americans and the released prisoners crossed the Lithuanian border and went to the country's capital. Speaking in front of the U.S. embassy in Vilnius on Wednesday evening, Smith praised the successful conclusion of the “special operation”. The release of detainees he called “a immense triumph and the consequence to the “force-by-force peace programme”” U.S. president Donald Trump.
At a Thursday gathering with Western diplomats in Vilnius, he said that a larger agreement would most likely be reached, in which Lukashenko would release many political prisoners, including those highly placed. In return, the US will mitigate sanctions imposed on Belarusian banks and exports of potash crucial for fertilizer production.
Belarus, which usually enjoys all possible form of exit from isolation, is silent about the visit of the American delegation. State tv presenter Igor Tur introduced a note of mystery, suggesting that Smith was not the actual leader of the American delegation. In his opinion, he was an unnamed elder official.
MAXIM SHIPENKOV / Pool / AFP / AFPVladimir Putin and Aleksander Lukashenko at the BRICS Summit in Kazan on 23 October 2024.
“We are very grateful to president Trump for moving things forward,” said Franak Wiaczorka, chief of staff in exile of the leader of the Belarusian opposition Swiatlana Cichanouska, who has long called for more sanctions against Belarus.
However, he added that sanctions should only be alleviated if “Łukashenko stops repression, will halt arresting people and free all political prisoners, including the most crucial figures."
The organisation of human rights “Visna” claims that there are 1,226 people in prison in Belarus for political reasons. In fresh months, Lukashenko has released more than 200 of them, including 2 Americans. Opposition activists, however, emphasize that he arrested even more people during the same period.
Optimism Among any Oppositionists
Tatiana Homici, sister of opposition activist Maria Kolesnikova, welcomed the fresh U.S. approach to Belarus. — The strategy of force from the past has not led to the release of political prisoners, stopping repression or altering the regime's behaviour, she said.
Smith was already in charge of relations with Belarus for the administration of Joe Biden and last year began preliminary discussions with US allies on leniency. But he had never gone to Minsk before — until last week.
This "direct diplomatic approach can bring concrete results, including (...) wider amnesty" and simultaneously weaken Belarus' dependence on Russia — points to the Homici.
Artiom Szrajbman,A political analyst who fled Belarus after suppressing protests in 2020 believes that Western sanctions had small impact on the Lukashenko government due to the support it received from Russia. He now hopes that the relaxation of Western sanctions in exchange for a change of policy in Belarus can aid to reduce the influence of Russia in the country and release the detainees.
"Additional leverage on Russia"
According to diplomats who attended the gathering with Smith, the main goal of the United States is to release as many political prisoners as possible. Smith said he asked Lukashenko if he would be willing to ease the repression, and Lukashenko replied yes. Another crucial goal, according to Smith, is to service Lukashenko “A small respite beyond the orbit of Russian influences‘.
Piotr Krawczyk, erstwhile head of the Polish Intelligence Agency, who worked with Trump's first administration to weaken the Kremlin's influence on Lukashenka, said Belarus is part of a "wider American approach to Russia".
The United States "resisting Russia in Ukraine, Africa, the oil and gas sectors and in respective another strategical areas," he noted. According to him, negotiations with Belarus could make an additional leverage by which the US would make Russia realize that it should pay more attention to "American arguments".
According to Szrajbman, the main question now is how the Kremlin will respond to the close-up between Belarus and the West. Many Russian officials “likely to panic” He said. However, he added that "there is no fast and easy way for Belarus to distance itself from Russia, given Moscow's economical dominance over this country".
