Correspondent Polsat News Magda Sakowska: First of all, I would like to ask about the fresh administration that is coming. Donald Trump will make many changes in abroad policy. There's even the word Trump Doctrine. How should we realize it, and what major changes should we be prepared for?
Expert on abroad Policy and Military Affairs Ian Brzezinski: I think that there will indeed be quite a few changes in US abroad policy. You never know what Trump will do, but in most cases he does what he says.
When we look at what he said and put it on the first 100 days of his office, I think his policy will be irritating to our European allies. Donald Trump promised to impose duties and is likely to happen. possibly erstwhile it takes office, any of the statements will be withdrawn, but I believe that customs is simply a priority.
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The U.S. position on climate change will besides be different than it has been before. Trump will see how rapidly he can retreat from the climate agreement. He will have a completely different approach to the mediate East than Joe Biden, likely to exacerbate sanctions against Iran immediately, put more force on him.
I do not think he will leave NATO, but he will request that our allies in NATO, especially Europeans and Canadians, increase their commitment to defence spending. He's been talking about 5% of GDP lately. This will all affect transatlantic relations.
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And, of course, we'll see what he does about Ukraine. This will be a challenge, an issue that will specify his abroad policy in the close future.
What are your predictions of his steps towards Ukraine?
Well, I'm concerned, considering what he says about it, and what he says is rather coherent. He said Ukraine's aspirations for NATO membership and support for this thought sparked war.
He described Putin's invasion of Ukraine as a superb move. He already said it, it's already happened. He besides criticized US aid to Ukraine, criticized Zelenski as the world's largest seller, who, as shortly as he visits the United States, then leaves them with $60 billion.
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Trump believes that the war in Ukraine is simply a problem for Europe alternatively than the US and expressed his concern even more emotionally than Joe Biden – the hazard of atomic war in this conflict.
So here's the framework he's going to be talking about Ukraine. He did not explain how he was going to solve Ukraine's case, but his advisor, whether it was J.D. Vance, the fresh vice president, General Kellogg, his envoy to Ukraine, spoke of an approach that fundamentally involves calling for ceasefire on current confrontation lines, contact lines. He says he'll do it by going to Zelenski and saying, accept the ceasefire or I'll cut off the help.
He says he will go to Putin and say: accept the ceasefire or I will increase aid to Ukraine. He calls for peacekeeping forces to be sent to Ukraine. And fundamentally it says that there will be no US engagement and no Ukraine membership of NATO.
If he does, he will leave Ukraine vulnerable. This is simply a recipe for a wider conflict. This will harm the credibility of the United States and NATO, which will not only lead to further force in Europe, but besides in another parts of the world, including the mediate East and the Indo-Pacific region.
Do you think there is simply a broader conflict with Russia in Europe?
If the president decides to go this way, I would say yes, then the real risk, the likelihood of specified a conflict will increase.
Where do you see Poland in all this?
Well, Poland is on the front line.Borders with Russia, Kaliningrad. The border with Belarus, where Russian forces are now, and possibly even atomic forces. I do not think that Poland will be hit straight erstwhile the conflict breaks out, but I am truly worried about the Baltic States. I find it hard to believe they wouldn't be drawn into specified a conflict.
And how seriously should we take Donald Trump's statements about Greenland that he would like to take control of the island?
Not really. I would alternatively treat it as a kind of whim, but something momentary. I believe these are unreasonable statements, which are highly harmful to 1 of our closest allies, Denmark. But let me put it this way, they reflect the reality that the Arctic has become a region of competition, confrontation, especially between the transatlantic community and Russia.
And Greenland, for geographical reasons and resources, is incredibly important. So aside from these bizarre statements, I see the anticipation that we can do more with Greenland and more with Denmark so that we can work together to make better usage of the geography and resources of this island in favour of the transatlantic community.
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Are you amazed that, according to fresh surveys, only 22% of Europeans consider the United States an ally?
I'm a small skeptical about that number.I would like to see what question has been asked to the respondents. I think there are many concerns in Europe about the Trump administration coming, but I think any have besides had concerns about the Biden administration and its readiness to actually argue Russian aggression. I disagree with the claim that Europeans no longer respect the United States as an ally.
Do you think that under Donald Trump, Europe should proceed to respect the United States as a strong ally on which Europe can rely?
I think the answer is fundamentally yes. Although these relationships will be stormy, It won't be an idyllic. Trump made it clear that he was very arrogant of how he had forced Europeans, especially Western Europeans, to recognise the request to increase defence spending. Indeed, more and more NATO states are fulfilling their defence obligations.
Donald Trump must realise that if the United States loses NATO, we will be much weaker – not only in Europe, but globally.
Il/ml / polsatnews.pl
