Donald Trump's threat to Tehran is clear: either Iran resigns from the atomic program or bombs fall. The US and the mediate East powers met on the weekend to negociate a atomic program behind closed doors. All this at a time erstwhile warships take their positions. It's the most delicate diplomatic drag line in years — and possibly Last chance to avoid open conflict. The stakes are high, and the threat of a war between the 2 powerful powers is nearing large steps. It would be a script with disastrous consequences.
What are the current talks about?
In short, it's war or peace. The U.S. and Iran are negotiating no little than the future of Iran’s atomic program — the question of whether the mediate East will plunge into a serious armed conflict in the coming months. Representatives of both countries met in Oman in the first direct talks in years — a diplomatic ray of hope in a grim script.
What precisely does the United States request and what do the Mullahs in Tehran want?
The United States government under president Donald Trump insists on "Better" agreement than 2015The United States withdrew in 2018. Request: complete resignation from any form uranium enrichment, comprehensive inspections and additional limitations of the rocket program. On the another hand, Tehran is willing to accept only the limitation of its atomic program — but not its full dismantling. In return, he demands noticeable relief sanctions. Both sides talk about willingness to compromise — but expectations cannot be more contradictory.
Why now?
President Trump gave Tehran an ultimatum: if the agreement is not reached in a fewer weeks, military strike is “inescapable” — with Israel, if necessary. At the same time, Iran has made large advancement in enriching uranium and, according to the global Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is on the verge of producing bomb quality material. Now it is time for both sides to take action — or face escalation.
Is there a real chance of a diplomatic solution?
Yes — but it is small. “It will not be possible to scope a far-reaching agreement on all the disputed issues so quickly,” says Bernese Islamist Reinhard Schulze. — Therefore, it will most likely besides be a question of uncovering a solution if it is not found.
Going back to the old atomic agreement is hard to imagine. Iran's method advancement requires a completely fresh agreement: with stricter conditions, greater transparency and clear verification mechanisms. But whether Iran is ready for this — and whether Trump would be willing to compromise — is highly questionable. “ The Iranian side would most likely even be ready to negociate straight with the U.S. in Oman if there was a possible of abolishing sanctions, ” however, says Schulze.
What's the worst scenario?
Coordinated U.S. and Israel air strike on Iranian atomic installations — utilizing stealth B-2 bombers, drones and maneuvering missiles. But that would only be the beginning: Iran could respond with rockets to Israel, attack US bases in the Gulf, block the Ormuz Strait and activate regional agents specified as Hezbollah or militias Huti. Result: a fire from Beirut to Basra, with erratic geopolitical and humanitarian consequences.
How likely is war?
More than in fresh years. Although both sides emphasize their willingness to talk, common distrust is profound. Iran fears that the U.S. is only playing on time and will yet strike anyway. Washington, in turn, believes that Tehran has long decided to become a atomic power. 1 misunderstanding, 1 provocation — and a barrel of powder may explode.
So the situation is tense — but not hopeless — says Schulze. In fresh months, Tehran has demonstrably distanced itself from its regional proxy organizations. “ Iran has shown that it does not want to be dependent on the adventures of Huti and Hezbollah. Iran wanted, besides for spiritual and ideological reasons, to hold the power of definition. So far, he has succeeded, adds the expert.
