The Iranian abroad Ministry acknowledged that Putin's commitment to talks between Washington and Tehran was discussed during a fresh visit by Russian abroad Minister Sergei Lavrow to Tehran. Iranian opposition sources claim that Trump's demands against the muslim Republic will be presented to Iran by Putin himself during his upcoming visit to the country.
However, there are any ambiguities in this play. Russia's function in talks between the president of the United States and the Iranians will be clear. Putin will not actually act as a mediator, alternatively as a mailman to whom the American president will supply a list of his demands and conditions. There is no reason to anticipate Moscow to be able to modify Trump's message in any way, insert additional provisions or remove those it considers unnecessary. Putin is not a full and complete associate in this process. Trump chose him for this function for 2 reasons.
First, Western countries — specified as France, Germany, and Britain — are not fit for dialog with the Iranians. Tehran does not trust them: they supported sanctions against him and frequently side with Israel. Iranian Shiite theologians have their differences to settle with Arabs, but Russia, which maintains relations with Muslim regimes despite their radicalism, is simply a candidate acceptable to both sides of the dialog that has not yet begun.
Secondly, involving Putin — although formal — in politics at the highest levels, Trump most likely wants to “satisfaction” the Russian government and get it to end the war with Ukraine.
However, both motives are not without drawbacks.
Unfair Mediator
Russia cannot be considered a neutral mediator in negotiations on Iran's atomic programme. mediate east observers believe that it is straight active in the muslim Republic's efforts to gain access to atomic technology and aid it make possible atomic means of transportation — ballistic missiles.
Trump may be counting on Putin to “sell” Russia’s interests in Iran’s atomic program in exchange for raising his position — with politics sought by the global Criminal Court to a associate in the main global policy. However, it cannot be guaranteed that this will work, as can Russia halt military operations in Ukraine.
The key question is, does the American diplomatic procedure have a chance of success?
Refusal to dialog with the US
Iran's atomic program is moving fast and an increasingly real script is Iran's creation of the first atomic bomb — despite the fact that it is prohibited by fatwa — a binding order of the spiritual leader of the land of Ayatollah Ali Chamenei. However, there are more and more voices about the necessity of canceling this fatwa.
Vyacheslav Prokofyev / POOL / AFPVladimir Putin and Masud Pezeszkaan after talks in Moscow, 17 January 2025.
Several of the first waves of global sanctions to put an end to the atomic ambitions of the Iranians went silent: they did not ban the work of leading bomb improvement centers and did not affect ballistic missiles.
Trump's list of demands, which he prefers to call "the proposal of an agreement", contains far-reaching solutions: American control of all objects of Iran's atomic and rocket program, the deprivation of the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps part of its function, the cessation of Iran's support for terrorist groups and its abandonment of the main strategical nonsubjective of destroying the State of Israel.
The adoption of these conditions would be tantamount to the complete and unconditional surrender of the muslim Republic government to the United States, Therefore, the opponents of the "agreement" or even only dialog with Trump in Tehran are now peculiarly moved and active. Persons who might be suspected of sympathizing with the Americans, starting with Vice president Mohammad Jawad Zarif, resigned or were released from executive positions. Both Chamenei and hawks in the defender Corps announced a categorical refusal of dialog with the US.
Risk of a strong solution
According to blogger Omid Dany, possibly the most ardent typical of the Iranian opposition, the consequence to Trump's proposals by Putin will be unequivocally “no”. In his opinion, this will not change much in the destiny of the current government in Tehran. The adoption of the terms of the agreement will lead to a comparatively peaceful fall of the power of Shiite theologians under the force of widespread discontent. Its rejection will lead Israel and the US to a strong solution to the problem, i.e. the demolition of atomic facilities in Iran and yet to the collapse of the government — but not by peaceful methods.
The Israelis have long wanted to organize a raid on these facilities and prevent the Iranian government from taking the atomic bomb, due to the fact that if Tehran created it, This will mean a catastrophic change in the balance of power in the mediate East region. The only thing stopping them is Trump's position, which is rigged on “agreements” that supposedly can end all wars and conflicts.
Without the engagement of American aircraft capable of carrying and utilizing bombs weighing 11-14 t, which can hit targets located in deep caves and tunnels, the attack on Iranian atomic objects will be ineffective. Israel doesn't have planes like that. It seems Trump has no intention of abandoning the declared function of peacekeeper without war.
However, any Iranian observers believe that while aware of the failure of the “system” offered to Iran, they will decide to cooperate with Israel in destroying the atomic facilities of the muslim Republic. And it will not be limited to exacerbating economical sanctions against this regime. So far, it has shown no signs of war against Iran (and even more so against Russian aggressors in Ukraine).
Russia's participation in the negotiation process can only hold and postpone the solution to the Iranian atomic bomb problem. This concerns both Israel and the arabian neighbours of Iran.
