After a telephone conversation between US president Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin The end of the war in Ukraine is inactive distant. Trump only managed to convince the president of Russia to agree to immediately ceasefire in all energy and infrastructure sectors. another civilian targets are so inactive being shelled. And the front line is inactive on fire.
According to U.S. peculiar Envoy Steve Witkoff, further negotiations are scheduled to take place in Saudi Arabia on Sunday. But how serious is Putin about the ceasefire? Klemens Fischer, prof. of global relations and geopolitics at the University of Cologne talks about poker involving planet leaders. “ Donald Trump only has 1 strong card,” says Fischer. If he uses it, upset Putin will decision on to plan B.
Fake poker. Power Game
First of all, Fischer explains what 2 heads of Putin and Trump are actually facing.
“ He says.
During White home scandal in late February Trump told Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenski that he was “not holding cards in his hand now”. “With us you will have the cards in your hand,” he explained. But what are Trump's cards against Putin?
Trump is simply a peculiar lure to Putin
— examines the expert.
— However, it would besides mean admitting Trump to failing his announcements that only he could bring peace, says Fischer. A strong card can rapidly become weak.
At the same time, Trump could besides put force on the Russian President, utilizing bait in the form of abolition of sanctions. “This asset card is worth billions due to the fact that it would let Russia to return to the markets,” explains Fischer. In specified a case, the sanctions imposed by another western countries would lose considerable importance.
Suspension of arms in the Black Sea “to think”
It will only be revealed how serious Russia is to halt the fire of energy infrastructure. Just a fewer hours after Tuesday's call between Putin and Trump, Russians attacked civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. According to Fischer, violations may be described by the U.S. as an oversight or as a legitimate 1 — on the pretext that Ukraine is utilizing shelled objects for military alternatively than civilian purposes. A geopolitics expert expects Trump's reaction to be beneficial to Russia.
So what can we anticipate from the next negotiation gathering to take place next Sunday in Saudi Arabia? “ Under no circumstances should a final breakthrough be expected, ” explains Fischer.
“ He adds.
Ukraine has been successful there many times since the beginning of the war — without a single warship of its own.
Without U.S. weapons, Ukrainians are in danger of taking power
Until a comprehensive ceasefire is reached, Putin and Trump fundamentally negociate the end of American support for Ukraine. Completion of US support "would have been adequate to weaken Ukraine to specified an degree that it would no longer be able to keep the front line in the east and south in a comparatively short time," says Fischer. Ukrainians can besides forget about territorial conquests in Russia.
According to the expert, it is clear that "Europeans are incapable to enter this gap". European countries would most likely not be able to bear the force of war on their own. “In any case, Putin will do anything to prevent Ukraine’s rebirth,” concludes the analyst.
