Donald Trump caused a “earthquake”. But he may yet regret the duties

During the presentation Trump showed a table with duties, but it was hard to find their size in each case.

According to the Reuter Agency, duties of 10% are applied to goods from most countries of South America and the mediate East, as well as the UK and Australia. China they receive 34 percent, EU – 20% Unexpectedly advanced duties are imposed on Kazakhstan (27%) and Serbia (37%). The tariffs for Cambodian goods are even higher: 49 percent Taiwan received 32 percent, India - 26 percent, South Korea - 25 percent, Japan - 24 percent, Israel - 17 percent.

But that is not all — “additional” duties (for certain goods specified as cars) have been announced, which seem to be combined with “reciprocal” duties (which are imposed by another countries on the US), the rate for any Chinese goods will scope 67%, and for the EU - 39%.

There is no Canada or Mexico in Trump’s table — they are not subject to an overall 10% work and seemingly the rate will be set separately. There is no Russia either—but Ukraine is—she got the lowest 10%.

What about Russia?

It is possible that customs duties for Russia will be established during the ceasefire talks — Putin's peculiar envoy and secret billionaire Kirill Dmitriev has already arrived in Washington.And Steve Witkoff is besides on his way there. Due to this trip, Dmitriev was even temporarily removed from American sanctions.

It is not excluded that Russia is subject to peculiarly violent customs — in the event of its uncontested attitude, although trade flows between the 2 countries are absurd. Option: tariffs will be imposed on buyers of Russian goods, even if they are not delivered to the United States.

It is now that 50 U.S. Senators from both parties have proposed a bill that if Russia stalls with truce talks, imports from countries that buy Russian oil, gas, uranium, etc. will be imposed fancy 500 percent duties. (But this is not what Trump proposes).

“In many cases a friend is worse than an enemy erstwhile it comes to trade” said Trump, commenting on his trade revolution. "We grant and support many countries and businesses. Why are we doing this? I mean, at what point do we say: do you gotta work for yourself?" The president explained that there is only 1 way to zero the duties: it is to transfer production to the United States.

Revolution

Markets immediately reacted to these innovations. Future contracts for S&P indices fell by 2 percent, as did the nipponese Nikkei index. The Chinese marketplace was inactive closed erstwhile the material was being prepared, but there is no uncertainty about its decline. The cryptolutes besides fall: bitcoin lost 1% in the first hr and then another 1.5%. But future gold contracts immediately set the evidence of all time at the level of 3.2 1000 dollars (12 1000 zlotys) for the Trojan ounce.

The first reactions of economists are besides depressing. Bloomberg experts intend to recalculate the likelihood of recession in the US: the country simply does not have adequate capacity for "import substitution", meaning inflation will increase.

Saul Loeb / AFP

Donald Trump signs duties at the White House, April 2, 2025.

Incidentally, there is no free labour force — unemployment in the US is inactive below 5%, which is considered adequate for economical growth. In the light Trump's migration policy There is besides no hope for immigrants who could take a seat at the machines if they abruptly appeared. perfect conditions are not even recession, but stagflation — low economical growth with advanced inflation. By the way, there is nothing good for the planet either: according to Bloomberg's estimates, planet trade could lose 33 trillion dollars ($106 trillion). American business associations are already calculating future losses.

But the crucial thing is that None of the objectives declared by Trump will be achieved by imposing advanced duties.

American Problems

One of his stated targets is job creation. However, the Reuter Agency analysed the results of the duties imposed — not only by Trump. In 2018, Trump raised the duties on washing machines to 50% and, as calculated by the American economical Review in 2020, about 1.8 1000 jobs were created, for which US consumers paid an additional 1.5 billion dollars ($5.7 billion) per year: the price of equipment increased. In 2 years it amounted to 3 billion dollars (11 billion PLN), i.e. over 1666 dollars (6.3 1000 PLN) for 1 workplace.

In 2009, the Council adopted Decision (CFSP) 2015/849. Barack Obama imposed duties on tyres to discourage the influx of inexpensive products from China. He said that more than 1,000 jobs were saved at the time of the duties. According to investigation conducted by Peterson Institute for global Economics, this effort cost 1.1 billion dollars (4.2 billion zł), or over 1,000 dollars (3.8 1000 zł) per workplace. Incidentally, most tyres were imported anyway, but no longer from China, but from Latin America and another Asian countries. It's kind of costly for jobs. possibly it would be cheaper if American consumers paid for retraining and hiring redundant workers.

Another goal is to reduce public debt. This is simply a serious problem for the United States, which is actually getting deeper in front of us. And it is not about the absolute value of national debt (more than 36 trillion dollars, or about PLN 137 trillion), or even its comparative value to GDP (123%), but about the ever-increasing costs of its service. Today, they amount to 4.7% of GDP, more spending on social goods only, and the defence will cost only 3.4% of GDP even in 2023.

However, the advanced duties themselves do not reduce public debt — it is decreasing in the case of budgetary surpluses. presently the US budget deficit is 9 trillion dollars (34 trillion zlotys) and even a simplification of it by any crucial amount is not possible. All loud action Government Efficiency Department (DOGE)conducted by Elona Muska, allowed to save (according to him) 115 billion dollars (439 billion PLN). However, the diary "Financial Times" calculated that in fact full government spending in February increased to $603 billion (PLN 2.3 trillion), +7% year-on-year.

Invitation to the Agreement

And the actual cuts that were made were negligible. In order to reduce the budget deficit, drastic cuts in social positions, devaluation of the dollar and taxation increases are needed, which is improbable to satisfy voters. But customs can further increase the US budget deficit and reduce its ability to cope with rising public debt, warned Moody’s credit rating agency. The reason is simple: trade will fall, especially if another countries impose retaliation duties. Less turnover means lower taxes for the budget.

Another goal Trump frequently talks about is Justice. Reducing the trade deficit with another countries: they bring more to the US than they buy there. However, the trade deficit itself is not always bad. For example, almost all countries have a trade deficit with China.

With the exception of Russia, in 2024 Russia had a surplus of $13.8 billion (PLN52 billion). Is that good? No, due to the fact that the surplus is due to a decline in Chinese imports due to the force of sanctions, and Russia provides energy resources to China with a marketplace discount. Customs will not necessarily correct the imbalance. For example, the United States has a trade surplus with Brazil, even though imports from the USA are subject to a 6% work and imports from Brazil are only 1 %. Conversely, the United States buys more from France than France from America, even though the duties on French goods are higher than on American goods.

Perhaps the only hypothesis that raises any hope: the duties imposed are a kind of invitation to Trump to conclude an agreement. But to be honest, given the erstwhile reactions of the EU and Canada, I do not believe that this maneuver will work.