The almost two-hour talks in Istanbul of 2 delegations, Russian and Ukrainian, both of whom felt that they were fruitful due to the fact that Kirilla Dmitriev said on platform X: "Good results of the first Russian-Ukrainian dialog for 3 years: the largest exchange of prisoners of war, the options for ceasefire that can work, knowing positions and continuous dialogue. This would not be possible without the president of the United States, JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio and another members of Trump's team.". On the another hand, a typical of Ukraine besides issued his message in the talks. Rustem Umerov said in a flash that "Kiyów discussed the ceasefire first. He besides announced an agreement on the exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war on each side. Umerov did not uncover any further plans for talks."
Suspension of weapons for positioning
Few people have doubts that this kind of gathering did not aim to bring about immediate peace, but could simply become a long, bumpy and winding way to accomplish a goal that would satisfy both parties, and most of all those who would no longer gotta fight and die on fronts. Medinski's return to talks is symbolic, as he signed the 2022 protocols. The agreement provided for neutral position of Ukraine, restrictions on the armed forces of that country (AFU), global safety guarantees from 5 permanent members of the UN safety Council (Russia, USA, China, France, United Kingdom) and limits on the size of the AFU. Today's talks are besides a return to positioning but taking into account changes on the front. The termination of the agreement by Kiev shortly after the conclusion of the agreement under Boris Johnson caused the conditions with which the Russians wanted to compete for talks to have changed. At the time, there was talk of giving to Kiev crucial territories along with Cherson, parts of the Zaporosian and Cherkovsky circuits, in exchange for the legal surrender of Crimea and Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, neutral position and abandonment of rusophobic rights. At this stage, the discussion is about "realis in the field" – Donbas, Zaporozh and the Kherson region as part of Russia. Additionally, in the absence of agreement at this stage, Russia may establish further demands for Nicholasev, Odessa and Kharkiv, and request a large demilitarized region as a logical consequence of Ukrainian practice on the front that attacks targets in the depths of the Russian Federation.
War and negotiations in pairs
The president of the full delegation for talks in Istanbul Waldimir Medinski recalled that "The communicative is full of examples of peace talks during the war". He reminded Napoleon that war and negotiations usually go hand in hand. He cited examples of war in Korea, Vietnam and Soviet-Finnish where the war continued in parallel and negotiations were conducted. Yet no 1 says that the possible fact that there may be a secret diplomacy in this case that no 1 knows about. Only now it has returned to the authoritative level due to the fact that after more than 3 years the situation has become clearly unfavourable on the part of Ukraine. And that Medinski sent a message to the planet that possibly we are going to have respective years of diplomacy going in parallel with the war effort is the consequence that the contradictions that both sides face, the objectives that proceed to differ. This may be due to the current situation of leaders. The conditions that Russia puts forward to return to the phase of the talks of 2022, with the correction of these conditions presented above, have no chance of being accepted by Żeleński. The leader of Ukraine has a real hope of holding talks so that the situation in the US will change and the conflict will follow the escalation path. His mark is only tactical. The aim of achieving a ceasefire is to redistribute resources, breathe for the AFU and supply additional supplies from the West. For this reason Medinski knows what he is saying, due to the fact that negotiations have been held in general may be a good signal, but besides an indication that this is the beginning of a long road, full of blood, suffering and common hatred. But the question is whether there is simply a chance of a lasting agreement as it does in the Korean Peninsula or Cyprus.
Bartłomiej Doborzyński
Text for the Polish Barometer.
