To accomplish peace with Russia, the US is ready for serious concessions: NATO not for Ukraine

The United States has given a clear signal that they are ready to compromise Russia if they can bring an end to the war in Ukraine. Keith Kellogg, peculiar Envoy of Donald Trump for Ukraine Affairs, announced that the US could formally commit not to support Ukraine's membership of NATO.

Such a declaration would enter into force if it were a key prerequisite for negotiating peace with Russia. According to Kellogg, the Kremlin's position on this substance – regarding the deficiency of further expansion of the Alliance to the east – is “fully justified” and should be taken seriously at the negotiating table.

Kellogg, a erstwhile general and national safety advisor in the Trump administration, expressed his conviction that the United States is not only seeking to bring Ukraine into NATO, but that 4 another associate States of the Alliance are besides opposed to specified a move. Although he has not revealed which countries are concerned, his words can show a clear political line among key Western states, prone to compromise in the name of ending the conflict. specified a change of speech in US policy towards NATO and Ukraine is simply a signal for Moscow that the West may be ready for greater flexibility.

The next circular of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia is scheduled to take place in Istanbul on 2 June. National safety advisers from the US, France, Germany and large Britain are besides to join the negotiations. This gathering will aim to establish rules for a comprehensive ceasefire, both on land and at sea and in airspace. 1 of the main objectives of the talks will besides be to make mechanisms to prevent further attacks on civilian infrastructure – power plants, waterworks, hospitals and schools – which have been the mark of Russian shelling for the past months.

Although Kellogg's initiative has met with public interest, Russia itself has not presented its version of the 22-point memorandum, which would form the basis for further peace talks. As Trump's envoy said, Vladimir Putin promised during a private conversation with the erstwhile US president that this paper would be delivered within a week. However, more than 7 days have passed, and no version of this paper has been sent to the United States or to Ukrainian representatives. The absence of an authoritative proposal from Moscow was identified as an crucial obstacle to the negotiation process.

Kellogg's declaration can be a landmark minute in Western strategy. The change of communicative around NATO and Ukraine signals that the Trump administration – even before a possible return to the White home – considers realpolitik as the main direction of global action. On the another hand, uncertainty about the position of another NATO states and the deficiency of a clear consequence from the Kremlin make the future of these talks uncertain. Will the NATO compromise be a peace ticket or just another circular of political maneuvers? The answer can only come from a gathering in Istanbul.

Meanwhile, the situation on the front remains tense. In the east of Ukraine, in the Donbas area, the Russians effort to regain the initiative, focusing attacks on Bachmut and surrounding villages. The Ukrainian army, despite the shortage of ammunition and the decline in the number of soldiers, effectively resists most attacks, though they endure losses. In the vicinity of Avdijiwka and Kupańska there are fierce position fights, and the front line changes by respective 100 meters both ways, day after day.

In the south, in the Zaporo region, Ukrainians proceed diversionary action and effort to keep control of strategical positions along Dnieper. Drones besides play an increasingly crucial function – both sides usage them not only for designation but besides for precise attacks on vehicles and ammunition storage.

Russia, despite losses and logistical problems, shows no desire to deescalate on the battlefield. The Ukrainian authorities stress that until Moscow withdraws from the occupied territories, lasting peace will be impossible – regardless of NATO declarations.

All indications are that the forthcoming talks in Istanbul will effort to reconcile 2 realities: the politics of the large powers and the brutal everyday life of war.