In November the Central Statistical Office published a fresh demographic simulation until 2060, which is importantly different from the forecasts presented only 2 years earlier. The most crucial conclusion is simple and disturbing. In Poland there is much little birth children than expected, at the same time the average increases life expectancy.
Various combinations of low or somewhat higher fertility and further life extension were included in the variants prepared by GUS. The analysis shows that the most likely situation present is simply a situation where fertility will stay low at around 1 kid per female and life expectancy will proceed to grow. This combination means faster population shrinkage and fast population ageing for Poland than previously anticipated.
The inheritance falls faster than it allows to explain a statistical error
Although the CSO presents respective scenarios in its analyses, experts emphasize that the most likely 1 is the 1 in which fertility remains very low, at the level of about 1 kid per woman. The downward trend is clear and lasting. In 2017, over 400,000 children were born in Poland, in 2020 this number fell to 355 thousand, in 2022 it amounted to 305 thousand, and in 2024 only 252 thousand. The forecast for 2025 is little than 230 000 births. Even after taking into account the emigrants not included in the statistics, the overall decline remains clear.
Poland shrinks
A crucial decrease in birth rates means that the population of Poland will begin to decline faster than previously predicted. According to current simulations, the population may fall below 35 million even before 2035. By mid - century, it will be close to 30 million, with little than 28 million in 2060. At the same time, the structure of the age will change in a way that has not yet been observed in Poland's history. Already now, the number of people aged 90 is higher than the number of newborns. Over a fewer decades, the participation of older people will be so advanced that children and young people will become 1 of the least many groups in society.
The decision to parent became a project, not an apparent one.
Demographers point out that the decline in birth rates is not solely due to the economical situation. Cultural change is becoming clearer. The kid has ceased to be a natural phase of life and has become 1 of many possible projects to compete for with work, hobby and individual freedom. Many women declare their desire to have children, but they frequently limit themselves to 1 child, as this combines with a immense emotional, temporal and financial cost. Modern parenting takes place in conditions of higher expectations and greater force than a fewer decades ago.
Real support is needed, not one-time support
Experts agree that modern household policy must decision towards systemic solutions that relieve the burden on the household and not just fund it. The most crucial are residential and professional stability, the availability of nursery and kindergarten, flexibility of work, as well as intellectual and social support for young parents. The birth of a kid cannot be ‘encouraged’ only by additional transfers if the everyday life of a household remains besides hard and unpredictable.
In short, Poland faces a multi-layer challenge. GUS numbers are an alarm. It's not just the problem of demographers and economists. It is simply a question of the form of our regular life, the way we care about the elderly, the organisation of the labour marketplace and the future of education. The faster we take appropriate and coordinated action, the greater the chance that the negative consequences of the fall in births will be possible to mitigate.
jb
Source: forsal.pl
