Introduction:
On 19 May, Ebrahim Raisi, president of Iran (since 3 August 2021), died in a chopper crash close the city of Varzaghan in the last East Azerbaijan. The president together with abroad Minister Hosejne Amir Abdollahijan and 7 another people returned from the beginning of the dam on the border with Azerbaijan. The chopper crashed around 1.30 local time, but Iranian media only reported a ‘hard landing’ around 4:00 p.m. The chopper with the president was part of a convoy, of which 2 another helicopters safely landed in Tebriz after they lost communication with the 3rd helicopter. The search action lasted respective hours and took place in very hard conditions. Rescuers worked in darkness, rain, and very dense fog. Only at night did the Turkish drone find the heat source, thus uncovering a likely crash site. Paramedics arrived at the crash site around 6am and found no signs of life among passengers. Officially informed of the death of Ebrahim Raisi Monday morning 20 May, and the ceremony was scheduled for 22 May. A five-day Nardowd mourning was besides announced. During the ceremony on 22 May, the highest leader of ajatollah Ali Chamenei led a prayer among thousands of Iranians gathered on the streets of Tehran and among the shouts of “US Death”.
With Ebrahim Raisi's abrupt death, questions arose about the succession of the regime, about possible changes and what the Iranians thought? To answer these questions, you must first realize who Ebrahim Raisi was.
Who was Ebrahim Raisi?
Ebrahim Raisi was the eighth president of the muslim Republic of Iran since 2021. He started his career at the D.A. in various Iranian cities. yet Raisi became a prosecutor in Tehran – the capital of Iran. In 1988, the future president sat on the committee liable for mass executions of political prisoners. In the alleged death commissions, Raisi conducted trials against political prisoners and sentenced them to death.[1]Thousands fell victim to him. Since that event, Ebrahim Raisi has been known as the “Slaughterer of Tehran” (Butcher of Tehran).[2] After the death of Iran's ultimate Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini was promoted to lawyer General in Tehran and yet in 2016 lawyer General of the State. The fresh ultimate Leader ajatollah Ali Chamenei later repeatedly appointed Ebrahim Raisi to another crucial positions.
Finally, in 2017, Raisi competed in the presidential election, taking second place and losing to the then incumbent Hasanen Rouhanin. In the 2017 election, Ebrahim Raisi was seen as an even more muslim and conservative candidate than the politically average incumbent president Rouhani. Only in 2021, Ebrahim Raisi won the presidential election with 62.00 percent support but with low attendance – only 48.8 percent.[3] By comparison, attendance in 2017 was about 70%.[4]
During his presidency, Ebrahim Raisi had to face 2 challenges – protests across Iran after the death of Masa Amini and the brutal consequence to these protests and the fierce conflict with Israel.[5] Ebrahim Raisi defended a brutal consequence to protests after Massa Amini's death, while accusing the West of inciting them.[6] Until the death of Ebrahim Raisi was protégé ajatollah Ali Chamenei, so it is no wonder that he was considered by many to be a possible successor to the ultimate Leader. Therefore, his death is simply a challenge to the government and succession in the most crucial positions in the country.
Success?
According to the Constitution of the muslim Republic of Iran in the event of the death of the President-in-Office, this position includes the Vice President, and fresh elections must take place within 50 consecutive days. Vice president Mohammad Mochber so assumed the post of president of Iran on 19 May. The short-term succession case is solved. There was no uncertainty who would replace Raisi, as the Iranian constitution has clear guidelines for specified situations. This liquid succession could not jeopardise the stableness of the regime. However, the President's abrupt death prevented long-term and planned successions from taking key positions in Iran.
Firstly, the Iranian government bases the Presidents' regulation on the presumption that each of them rules 2 terms. Secondly, Ajatollah Sayyida Chamenei and the Guardian Council elect acceptable candidates for the fresh president.
The nominations of candidates will show whether Chameneni intends to change course to a more average or proceed with authoritarian policy. According to Ellie GeranMajeh, Iran expert from the European Council on abroad Relations, the launch of more average candidates is unlikely. For Ayatollah Chamenei the goal is simply a seamless and unchangeable transfer of power.[7] There are no confirmed presidential candidates yet, but most likely the presidential seat will be fought:
- Mohammad Mokhber (President since 19 May);
- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (president of the muslim Consultative Assembly, candidate in erstwhile elections);
- Ali Larijani (former president of the muslim Consultative Assembly)
- Mohammad Jawad Zarif (former Minister of abroad Affairs and Iranian Ambassador to the UN)
- Saeed Jalili (Member) Expedient Discernment Council)[8][9]
Who will actually become a candidate will be seen erstwhile the Council of Guardians approves the applicable candidates.
The Iranians will go one more time to urn on June 28. The real test of support among the Iranians will be attendance. The low turnout will be a sign of protest against the conservative authoritarian and frequently violent policies of the regime, as was seen during the parliamentary elections of March this year. It was then that attendance was about 40% and according to Ian Dudgeon of the Australian Institute of global Affairs the Iranians would equally reluctantly go to the presidential election in June.[10] At this moment, we inactive gotta watch who will yet compete in the elections and what the consequence of the Iranians and “the Iranian street”.
The death of Ebrahim Raisi is besides a challenge for Ayatollah Chamenei. Ajatollah Chamenei is now 85 years old and is becoming weaker, so uncovering the right successor is crucial. Ebrahim Raisi was repeatedly pointed out as a possible successor to Ayatollah Chamenei, as he supported a conservative and tough policy. The deceased president besides had adequate experience in administration and judiciary to take the most crucial position in the country. His death leaves the right only 1 candidate in the game – Mojtaba Khamenei, boy of Ayatollah and influential clergyman.[11]
A little popular possible successor is Alireza Arafi, an experienced clergyman and associate of the Guardian Council. According to a BBC Persian survey involving analysts and experts Ebrahim Raisi and Mojtaba Khamene, however, were the most likely candidates who could gain approval from the Assembly of Experts.
Mojtaba Khamenei, however, would be a controversial choice, as he lacks experience in positions performed and in state administration. Moreover, Ayatollah Chamenei repeatedly opposed the transfer of power to his son. The appointment as the successor of the boy of the present ajatollah would besides propose that the muslim Republic of Iran is entering the way of a strategy of nineteen power and concentration of power in a single family.[12] It is so highly hard to foretell who will succeed. This is not helped by the fact that there is only 1 precedent for succession in the position of ultimate Leader – the appointment of Ali Chamenei to this position after the death of the first Chief Ruhollah Chomeini.[13] 1 thing is certain, another leader will be elected by Chamenei and a conservative and uncompromising faction of the Iranian regime.
Iranian Moods
Ebrahim Raisi's death sparked mixed reactions in Iran and showed a gap between the power elite and average Iranians.
State tv broadcasts prayers for fast and happy uncovering the president – but this time they did not aid prevent the President's death or the unification of Iranians around the character Ebrahim Raisi.
The declared five-day national mourning is not as national as the Iranian authorities would wish. The President's death was a minute of joy for a part of society. For many, Ebrahim Raisi was straight liable for violent executions, suppression of protests and women's rights after the death of Masa Amini. So there was no time for mourning among liberal Iranians and activists. alternatively of crying on the Iranian streets, the residents played fireworks, celebrating the death of a violent president. Their comments on social media e.g. X (Twitter) were besides far from expressing sadness.[14] A large part of society saw the President's death as a chance to change or at least a minute to breathe.
International reaction
For the neighbours, the death of the president and abroad Minister will not change much, as the government will proceed a tough policy led by Ayatollah Chamenei. Pakistan, Iraq and Turkey have offered their condolences to the Iranian people.[15] Turkey's function was besides crucial in uncovering the chopper wreck. It was the Turkish drone that detected the heat origin in the mountains, thus locating the helicopter.
The abrupt death of the president of Iran increases uncertainty in relations between Iran and Israel, according to Ali Vaez of the global Crisis Group. He besides states that Raisi's death can encourage the enemies of Iran (including Israel, Saudi Arabia) to take more courageous and dangerous action against Iran.[16] What is noticeable, uncertain situation in Iran and the unexpected change of the incumbent president make the situation in the mediate East even more difficult, peculiarly in the context of the Israel War in Gaza.
Time of change?
The chances of change in the government were negligible thanks to a well-defined procedure in the case of the President's premature death. Authorities rapidly and efficiently took over Vice president Mohammad Mochber. This was done without question.
Moreover, in the June elections we will most likely not see any candidates seeking to change or average the system. The uncompromising and conservative way set by Ayatollah will continue. In short, there will be no change.
Ajatollah Chamenei besides dispelled any doubts with the entry on X (Twitter) writing on the day of the disaster “The nation doessn’t request to be welcomed or anxious as the administration of the country will not be disrupted at all.” (The nation does not gotta worry or worry, due to the fact that the administration of the country will not be disturbed at all.)[17]
According to experts, the Iranians will besides not see a crucial change erstwhile the fresh ultimate Leader appears. Ajatollah Chamenei shaped the strategy so that its policy would proceed even after his death.[18] In this situation, the chance to change is slim. But the test for uncompromising and conservative government politicians will be their control and cooperation in all parts of power. In the absence of a tripartition of power, tensions among the elite are a threat to the stableness of the Iranian regime. This is an chance for liberal Iranians seeking change, but even the abrupt death of the president alone will not bring expected changes and liberalisation in the muslim Republic of Iran.
Bibliography
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Photo: Canva
