The mediate East, with peculiar emphasis on Israel, is 1 of 3 possible regions where a global conflict may erupt. Of course, Ukraine is first, but the threat there seems unchangeable in its instability. It does not appear that Russia wanted to usage atomic weapons, which would force the West – especially the US – to respond radically.
The second inflamed place is the mediate East – which I will tell more about today. 3rd – South China Sea region. There, China claims the rights to the full reservoir, which is opposed by all neighbouring states. There are incidents, but despite tensions, it does not appear that there is simply a threat of global war. The situation in the mediate East is different – this is simply a conflict of ambition, influence and possible military provocations.
The Russian-Iranian cooperation agreement has late been signed, including military cooperation, but its importance is limited. Iran does not recognise the annexation of Crimea, and Russia does not support Iranian claims against 3 islands off the coast of the United arabian Emirates. In the background, we besides have the 2021 Chinese-Iranian agreement, which provides for military cooperation. To date, China has not become deeper active – although it has participated in maneuvers with Iran and Russia. Iran acquires from China, for example, rocket fuel, but it is more symbolic than groundbreaking.
We have Israel on the another side. A key change followed Donald Trump's presidency – the thought of normalizing Arab-Israeli relations, the symbol of which was the alleged Abrahamic Agreements. Saudi Arabia demanded American safety guarantees – akin to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty of Washington – and received them. This shows how much the U.S. engages in Israel's safety – and how powerfully it affects the arrangement of forces in the region.
The enemy of Israel is Iran, who has been calling for years to "shape Israel off the map". For a long time, no 1 took these announcements seriously – until Tehran became a military power and went far in the improvement of atomic technologies.
Here a brief digression – Poland has more in common with Israel than it seems. Israel was mainly built by Jews from Poland – Zionists who fled Europe after the destruction. After planet War II, they concluded that they had to make their own state – the only warrant of the safety of the judaic people. Israel's political strategy was mostly modelled on pre-war Poland.
Poland besides played an indirect function in the construction of Israel's armed force. I remember my grandfather's stories from the Second Corps of Anders. erstwhile they were stationed in Palestine, soldiers of judaic origin disappeared at night, who joined the conflict for the Israeli state—with the British and later with the Arabs. In Poland – in Wałbrzych, Częstochowa – training camps for Zionist fighters were operating. We delivered weapons, training, support. Many Israeli commanders had Polish military roots. These relations were strong – until 1967, erstwhile the Demolides broke relations with Israel after the Six-Day War. That was the beginning of the distance.
Then came March ‘68 and another wave of anti-Semitism. Israel welcomed many russian expatriates – people raised on a lying version of the past of planet War II, in which there was no September 17, but “the war began in June 1941”. These people besides brought prejudice against Poles. It is now the Russian Jews who dominate Israeli society. erstwhile Putin spoke in Jad Yours in 2021, he devoted 3 quarters of his contributions to the alleged Polish anti-Semitism. It was so disgusting that even the Jad authorities protested.
In this atmosphere, “Times of Israel” attacked President-elect Karol Nawrocki, calling him an anti-Semite. It was specified a serious incidental that even the future U.S. Ambassador to Poland reacted – erstwhile publisher of the Jerusalem Post.
Let's go back to Iran. Israel recalls that the Americans have already erstwhile signed a deal with a atomic weapons threatening state – with North Korea. After 10 years, Korea launched the bomb. Tehran can go the same way. It has more than 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, and atomic weapons require only 90%. Iran has centrifuges, technology, and possibly it already has a bomb.
Former president Rafsandjani erstwhile said, “Israel is simply a country for 1 bomb.” It is actual – if last year among the 300 rockets that hit Israel, although 1 had a atomic warhead, Israel would cease to exist. Despite the state-of-the-art rocket defence system, 8-10 ballistic missiles penetrated and hit military bases. This shows that even Israel is incapable to defend itself against the attack.
Therefore, talks in Oman between the U.S. and Iran match appearances. Americans want to buy peace – mitigate sanctions in exchange for halting the atomic program, but have no warrant that Iran will not fool them as much as Korea.
Iran has 6,000 km rockets – they can scope any European capital. Therefore, the base in Redzkov – designed to shoot down specified missiles – is crucial for us.
Israel has allies. Sunni Gulf countries – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain – hatred Shiite Iran. Instiling rebellion, sabotaging, undermining order – these are the actions Iran has been doing there for years. Israel's cooperation with Azerbaijan and Turkey enables an effective interview – due to the fact that most Azerbaijanis live... in Iran.
Turks treat the Azers like brothers. For them, repression of the Azerbaijani number is not an indifferent matter. Iran, in turn, is afraid of breaking the state – that is why it strangles language, culture, identity. There is simply a Kurdish problem and tension with Kurds in Syria and Iraq.
The Palestinian issue? present it is no longer a substance of the arabian world. Nobody wants Palestinians – not even Egypt, who erstwhile managed the Gaza Strip. Hamas murdered 1200 Israelis last October – mostly pacifists. 250 people were kidnapped. The retaliation of Israel – 55,000 casualties among civilians, mainly women and children – will become a stain on Israel's history.
There is no solution present without Israel – and the current Israeli authorities categorically reject the Oslo agreement. Kneset felt there was no mention of a Palestinian state. Even Jordan, who erstwhile received refugees, was attacked by them. The Palestinian conflict is of no political benefit today.
Finally, Iran is an educated society, a country increasing economically despite sanctions – but besides a associate of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. He wants to be an independent power. The weapon is an eye. 800,000 soldiers – like Turkey. Israel – 600,000. Without a land operation, Iran cannot be defeated, and no 1 will decide for specified an operation today. What does that mean?
That means we're gonna live with this.
