Will uncommon lands change the geopolitical landscape?

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The planet is entering an era where access to uncommon earth elements and critical minerals will become as strategical as erstwhile access to oil.

President Joe Biden's national safety advisor, Jake Sullivan, warned that "the clean energy supply chains could be utilized as weapons in the same way as oil in the 1970s or natural gas in Europe in 2022". president Donald Trump, during his first word of office, signed Executive Regulation No 13 953, which aimed at "reviving the threat to the national supply chain posed by dependence on critical minerals from abroad opponents, and supporting the home mining and processing industry".

At European level, the rules on critical minerals reflect the same concerns. EU experts emphasise the importance of reducing the hazard of dependence on imports in the supply chains frequently "from suppliers from 3rd countries in quasi-monopoly situations – a barely veiled mention to China", consider Sabrina Emran and Oussama Tayebi of the fresh South Policy Centre (PCNS).

What are critical minerals and uncommon earth elements? The U.S. government defines critical minerals as essential minerals for the economy or national safety of a country whose supply chain is susceptible to disruption – this may consequence from limited availability, deficiency of home production or geopolitical threats. The uncommon earth elements are so called, not due to their unique occurrence, but due to the dispersed deposits and chemical properties that hinder their separation and extraction.

Many of these minerals and elements are crucial for a number of commercial industries, including automotive, aviation and technology, as well as for military potential. Or is it especially for him? In any event, uncommon earth elements play a key function in the production of military equipment specified as jet engines, rocket guidance systems and communications equipment. Without uncommon earth elements or critical minerals, military technology (and consequently, any other) will not make progress. America, of course, cannot afford it. due to the fact that that would mean nothing little than losing to China before the conflict began. And specified geopolitical conduct that magnetic conduction of the Earth would be "a tiny inconvenience," in half a joke, half serious.

In the summertime of this year, the abroad Relations Council (CFR), a world-famous think tank, pointed out that despite the strategical importance of minerals, for most of them the United States inactive mostly trust on abroad imports. And China is the main source. This country dominates the refining capacity of cobalt, graphite and uncommon earth elements.

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Forecasts foretell that by 2030 America will have little than 2% of its global marketplace share of critical minerals, while China will have 31 percent.

Goldman Sachs investigation estimated in 2023 that China was liable for 85-90% of the world's uncommon earth refining and refined 68% of cobalt, 65% of nickel and 60% of lithium needed to produce batteries for electrical vehicles. According to estimates 65% of battery components, 71% of battery cells and 57% of electrical vehicles worldwide are manufactured in China.

It is worth noting that China's dominance is not linked to the abundance of natural materials that the planet now desires. The Diplomat made an interview with Thijs Van de Graaf, an energy scientist at the Brussels Institute of Geopolitics, who said, "This dominance is not resource-related, but alternatively strategical industrial policy and capital investment over decades." Whoever invests and thinks forward-looking has. In this case, this message is entirely à by mention to: "China has been securing supply chains for decades, investing in African mines, lithium in Latin America and strategical stocks," says Van de Graaf.

Does this mean that China has become self-sufficient? That they are the undisputed hegemon who dictates the conditions to the full planet in specified an crucial and forward-looking sector? That they control global technological improvement in this way – and civil, and military? The State of the Centre discounts its privileged position in a geopolitical game. It applies coercion measures, in peculiar export restrictions, to influence the political decisions of countries that have become dependent on supplies from China," informs the fresh South Policy Centre. CFR in turn writes that in consequence to the first 10% work on Chinese goods introduced by Trump in February 2025, China limited exports of 5 critical minerals to the United States, which raised concerns about price increases and disruptions in supply chains.

However, Van de Graaf states that "real self-sufficiency is an illusion – China is besides the largest importer of key natural materials: nickel, copper and lithium in the natural state. This means that any disruption in the supply of natural materials can negatively affect their economy."

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While the planet economical Forum (WEF) points out that "one country – China – already has over-control over the supply and refining of natural materials", the fresh study from this organisation suggests that concerns that "Chinese control is getting closer, which can have both political and economical consequences" may be exaggerated.

Of course, America is doing everything to show you that "self-sufficiency is an illusion", especially in the field of the natural materials in question.

The abroad Relations Council (CFR) writes that Donald Trump's administration seeks to reduce the dependence of the US on abroad supply chains, which, according to experts, puts the United States at risk. In addition to promoting home mining, the administration exerts diplomatic and economical force to increase US access to key minerals. 1 specified country with critical minerals is Ukraine – note the margin.

"The acquisition of mineral resources abroad" has become a key abroad policy goal of the Trump administration," stated the "New York Times" in his article.

Instead of returning to the dynamics of the free market, we are entering an era in which industrial policy and geopolitical strategy dictate the future of mineral markets, says The Diplomat. Governments will proceed to interfere intensively in supply chains, whether through subsidies, trade restrictions or strategical partnerships.

Karve International, a British global marketplace analyst, sees that individual countries are already forming alliances to safe mineral supply. The Mineral safety Partnership (MSP), which is led by the United States, brings together countries specified as Canada, Australia and Japan to cooperate in the acquisition, production and recycling of critical minerals. Similarly, the European Union has introduced the European Alliance for natural Materials to reduce dependence on 3rd countries and to support innovation in natural materials extraction and recycling. Karve recalls that in October 2024 the Turkish Ministry of Energy announced the signing of an agreement with China in order to strengthen cooperation in the mining sector, with peculiar emphasis on uncommon earth elements. "The emergence of specified alliances may lead to fresh economical blocks and security, which further polarises global order" concluded the British company.