Does Biden gotta leave?

It is January 20, 2024 and in 365 days Donald Trump will be sworn in as 47th president of the United States. At least that's how they make us believe. polling, bullmahers And run specialists. Of course, scenarios of the future are written with sticks on water, not - as Americans say nicely - forging in rock. But if the Democrats, the American elite and the public believe that, too, then...

If Democrats and the American establishment believes Trump's win will be the end of American democracy (Oh, yeah.They sayAt the same time, they besides believe that his triumph is increasingly inevitable, should they not request any action to aid save their homeland from falling into fascism?

For example, removing a candidate who loses in polls with Trump (it just so happens to be the incumbent president) and replacing him with individual else? I don't know, I'm just a modest publicist, but If I believed that my homeland was threatened by execution and tyranny, I would request my representatives, political opposition and institutions of the democratic state any steps that could prevent the worst. present Biden is the president who enters the last year of his first word of office with the worst score of all after 19451. At this point Scranton Joe loses to Orange Man 1 percent point in national surveys and - more importantly - on average by 5 percent points in 7 major decisive states. In a word, it doesn't look good.

Of course, today's debate on whether the Democrats can name a candidate is rather theoretical. First of all, that it was not prevented in time by the Democratic organization itself - it has been established in advance that broad primaries will not be (and the organization will not support counter-candidates to the head of state), Biden won't mention the dreary vice president in the polls, nor will she retreat for the younger. frontrunner. So now the anticipation to registry candidates in many states is ending, the primaries have begun, and Biden has decided to reapply for the office of president with Kamala Harris at his side. The voters stay to watch this Shitshow in the hope that their president, the oldest candidate in history, will not have a stroke or fall on COVID during the election race. And if he has to retreat for wellness reasons, preferably late adequate for a possible successor to find the DNC structure (i.e. party), not electors at the summertime convention.

But just due to the fact that the exchange of a candidate would be hard at this point (for whom?), does not mean that the full discussion about Biden's position and his inheritance is pointless. On the contrary. It is worth looking at what happened over the past year and the past fewer weeks and asking yourself why Trump now looks like a brick candidate for the presidency.

A year ago, it seemed that Biden would be the president erstwhile the economy landed softly, Ukraine will carry out a successful counteroffensive or even though it will defend itself until negotiations, the process of standardisation in the mediate East will proceed, and the US will return to the way of liberal hegemony (on the way murdering the remains of fantasies of any European independence). And the next election will be decided as a referendum on abortion and democracy - vivat 2024!

Today we can see that although the first and the last targets have been achieved, it is bad, if not tragically. The president of the United States is simply a hostage to not his wars, not his decisions and not his calendar - which in the case of “the most powerful man in the world” looks alarmingly akin to impotence.

We are about to address national policy, but the fundamental dynamics that undermines Biden's credibility concerns abroad policy, and so it is crucial to us. The president of the United States makes 1 bad decision for the other, acting in the belief that he must do so, due to the fact that his successor would make even worse. How harmful, destructive, can be logic - I don't think you request to explain it to anyone. Example one: Biden - How wise and timely Stephen Wertheim noticed - giving unconditional support to Israel “made America an accessory to everything that would happen afterwards”. If Netanjahu had ended the war in a week and Hamas leaders had decided to voluntarily go to a prison under Tel Aviv, Biden would have celebrated the triumph. Since something has happened to the other - and after more than 100 days of war, the Netanyahu government fights little against Hamas than for its own endurance and political future - Biden must be the sponsor, advocate and right-wing squire, whom he does not even support. What Israel does goes to the U.S. account - and as 1 of the surveys of public opinion in arabian countries has shown, the region's societies consider Washington's actions to be more dangerous than Tel Aviv. It's a political accomplishment in this climate itself.

But president Biden is convinced that he must support Israel, due to the fact that he better endure the humiliation of Netanyahu than that Trump should come to power and drag the U.S. into this war or give Israel carte blanche for all, the worst even solutions.

This is the dynamics I'm talking about-- You'd better decide to do the incorrect thing, due to the fact that Trump will decide to do the worse.. akin to Yemen (and most likely in a minute of Iran): better bombing and “force demonstration” than bringing the US into the war in the region. (Pal six, that 1 leads to another, but to know it, 1 must Stop reading only hawks and leave the intellectual region of the Cold War). Ukraine? Same thing. First Washington insisted on the doomed “controfensive” to later usage her defeat as an authoritative reason for limiting support for Kiev and start pushing for a deal with Russia. That's the word: Democrats fearing that Republicans would press for a frost of conflict in Ukraine under Russian conditions, decided to start pushing for the same.

Because Biden already inherits 2 wars (and the consequences of his predecessor's actions) he shrinks the field of action on which he would gotta accomplish spectacular success and defend his achievements and heritage. He would gotta win in national politics. Here, however, Biden is simply a victim of more perception and expectations, to which it has small influence. How beautifully did Roger Lowenstein compose on the pages of the fresh York Times: The Americans see 1 thing that their real wages are rising slower than Trump's.. Sometimes adequate to finish the presidency.

In mainstream media optics, Trump's summers were 1 large scandal, a legacy of fascism, torture and rape against democracy, the fall of all good and beautiful. However, for average people who work hard, and the conviction of the “NYT” or “WaPo” section does not substance much to them, Trump's era was a time erstwhile wages grew - while Biden's behinds stand still. As Paul Donovan of UBS added in the same newspaper: for people a glance at the shelves in the marketplace and the price of Snickers is more crucial than the inflation measures given by economists and the White House. Never adequate to remind you how much more harshly American voters justice power erstwhile it comes to inflation. In Poland, the organization for which the inflation of consumer goods prevailed 18% won the most votes in the election. In the US today, the inflation rate of food products - the most severe - is 3.9% year-on-year and 0.2 months-month-on-month in the downward trend: And society wants Trump back due to it!

Trump himself, paradoxically, can say that he represents stableness - times erstwhile salaries grew and the US was not sponsor of another people's wars - while Biden was chaos. And on a certain, superficial level, he'll be right. The additional argument that speaks to him is Isolation description that was falsely affixed to him in 2015-2020. present - in light of what is happening in the planet - the “isolationist presidency” sounds to many Americans not like a threat, but a promise. Opinions of mainstream media on Trump’s “fascism” and Biden’s unchangeable power are very detached from the opinions of average people. besides due to the fact that the vast majority of the public does not like the age of both candidates, but media tactfully bypass the subject by fearing accusations of “jjysm” or harming their candidate.

And here we go back to Biden. The president is already 227 years old, his end in politics is near, and now the game is about the legacy - whether he will be the 1 who saved America from Trumpism or as the 1 who lost the war during the word of Ukraine, in the United States abortion was banned, the mediate East ignited, and he himself gave power to the MAGA team? Each period of being stuck in this conventional reel (and conventionally incorrect) decisions makes the second script more likely.