80 seats for the ANOs in the 2 100 Members of the Czech Parliament – whose authoritative name is the Parliament of the Czech Republic – are better than this decision 8 years ago, but he inactive lacks 21 seats for the smallest majority.
The ruling parties over the past 4 years, i.e. created by 3 conservative parties of the SPOLU coalition of Prime Minister Petra Fiala, the State movement and liberal Pirates gained a full of 92 mandates – not adequate to proceed to rule, due to the fact that they reject the anticipation of forming a coalition with xenophobics from the SPD or populist Motorized who will sit in the parliamentary bench for the first time.
Mobilising democratic defenders
Lukász Hilpert, who headed a NGO a year ago called the Million Moments for Democracy, has no uncertainty that he and his friends will have their hands full again. “Working for democracy is simply a constant necessity,” he says in a conversation with the DW. You gotta take care of her all the time, not just during elections. This vote ended erstwhile it ended. Andrej Babish will form a government. And we'll do everything we can to keep him in check.
It was the erstwhile governments of the head of the ANO that led to the creation of this non-governmental organization, which set itself the goal of "supporting and cultivating democratic culture, civic engagement and public debate in the Czech Republic".
At the time, they protested against the conflict of interest of Babish, the owner of Agrofert's agri-food company, which inactive benefited from EU subsidies. In addition, Babish has been under trial for years regarding the extortion of a grant for a company separated from Agrofert which manages the conference and leisure centre "Bocian nest" close Prague.
Six years ago, the very young defenders of democracy at the time were very successful due to the fact that they had mobilised hundreds of thousands of their people. For the 2 demonstrations they held in June and November 2019 on membranes extending on the hill of Letná nad Vltava, each time they brought in between a 4th million and 300,000 demonstrators. On another dates, protests were besides held in another cities and municipalities. In December 2019, they included about 200 specified places.
There will be no communists
Politologist Jirzí Pehe, since 1999 manager of the University of fresh York in Prague private school, explains DW success Babisha has the ability to attract to his group the hesitant voters who had previously voted for tiny non-parliamentary parties.
However, Pehe considers that for the second time in a row the communists did not get into the parliament as the most crucial consequence of these elections. And it must be stressed that they were moving under the cover of the movement Enough! and with 2 social democrats taken in for camouflage under the protective wings of his leader Katerzina Koneczne.
The head of the Communist organization of the Czech Republic and Moravia, however, does not intend to quit and announce that the decision of Enough! will continue. And it's not hard to understand. The group gained 4.3 percent of the vote, which does not give them any mandate, but guarantees money from state money. Of course, provided that the movement does not cease to exist.
Czechexit won't happen
The SPD movement entered parliament, although its result is clearly worse than pre-election expectations. The polls gave him over 13 percent of the votes, managed to get little than 8 percent, 17 tickets. Okamura, however, burns to the government, wants for his group of abroad and interior ministers. besides the motorized (13 tickets) dream of the Ministry of abroad Affairs, and besides the Ministry of the Environment.
But specified a lavish future Prime Minister will surely not be, especially since both groups deficiency strong arguments. Jirzí Pehe points out that there were representatives of respective another parties on the SPD list who might turn out to be completely unpredictable to Babish.
– In fact, Okamura can supply the support of 10 to 12 Members. Thus, in total, all 3 groups would not have 108 but 101 to 103 seats.
And that is the biggest problem for the future prime minister. Although there is not so much opposition to the SPD and the Motorised, the SPD is hindered by the fact that the SPD is demanding a referendum on the exit of the Czech Republic from the European Union and NATO. – His Agrofert has companies in Germany, Netherlands, and France. Therefore, Babisz must be careful not to get into conflict with Western countries," Pehe believes.
The full discussion on this subject seems academic, due to the fact that there is no national referendum institution in the Czech Republic. There is besides no chance of bringing it into the legal order, due to the fact that it would require a change to the constitution, and for that a greater majority is needed than to rule, due to the fact that it is constitutional, and in both chambers of parliament. And the legislature has the advantage of parties that have ruled for the past 4 years.
Babish would like to regulation alone
It is so no wonder that the ex-premier would most willingly regulation alone, only with the silent support of both parties. He's already had experience. His first cabinet did not receive a vote of assurance and only the second was supported by the xenophobic Okamura and communists, then present in the lower chamber of parliament. And it turns out you can regulation like that. And this time the ANO achieved a better score than 8 years ago.
Babisz was not the first, due to the fact that Milosz Zeman, who gave his predecessor Václav Klaus the leadership of the parliament in exchange for tolerance, was already in charge. They both wrote up a deal they called opposition.
But although the ANO has more fines and weaker possible partners, it doesn't should be easier. He won't have president Zeman behind his back. So he will gotta cope on his own, which may prove to be rather hard for him – says Politologist Jirzí Pehe.
We have president Petr Pavl at the castle, who is an authentic Democrat. We have the legislature and we have a Million Moments – emphasizes the head of this group, Lukász Hilpert. I think this is simply a very crucial message, due to the fact that there are very many active people all over the country, not only in the moment, but besides thanks to them. So I think that civilian society will truly rebel erstwhile it comes to the worst.
Conversations started
The votes were barely counted, the talks began. To begin with, the future Prime Minister welcomed at home the heads of both parties who could support his government. On Sunday morning, talks with the heads of all the parties that entered Parliament will start president Petr Pavel.
In addition to the Koneczny Katerzyna communists, the biggest losers of these elections are the SPOLU coalition of 3 right-wing ODS parties, the KDU-CzSL and the Top 09, and especially the head of the first 1 and the full coalition, inactive serving Prime Minister Petr Fiala. He recognized his defeat, congratulated the winner and announced that he would think about what he was going to do in his party. It is expected that he will shortly turn the wheel into another hands.
What about the polls?
Meanwhile, there will most likely be another circular of discussion on why public opinion researchers' forecasts in this part of Europe are again so different from the final results of the vote. Do they deficiency professionalism, or do respondents lie to pollsters? due to the fact that this time, I think only in the case of the Stan movement could correctly foretell the results.
Forecasts for ANOs were heavy understated, for Pirates and Communists, and especially for SPDs inflated. The point is, these deviations are higher than during the elections in Germany or Austria.
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