- — India is simply a colossus, and with a strong and dynamic economy, while Pakistan is bankrupt, dependent on IMF drips and increasingly on the support of the PRC," says Dr. Sokała
- — The geostrategic situation in the region has changed dramatically – the expert says. “India erstwhile quietly supported the russian Union, and Pakistan played for the American team. It's over," he explains.
- “ fresh Delhi may have decided to take this step backwards in exchange for any concessions by Washington in the ongoing negotiations on American tariffs,” says Sokal, asked about the truce between the parties
- More crucial information can be found on the Onetu homepage
"After a long night of talks involving the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a full and immediate suspension. I congratulate both countries on common sense and large intelligence. Thank you for your attention!” — announced on the platform fact Social Donald Trump.
"Pakistan and India agreed to ceasefire with immediate effect. Pakistan has always strived for peace and safety in the region while not giving up its sovereignty and territorial integrity!" wrote on the X Ishaq Dar platform, Pakistan's abroad minister.
Also India's Head of Diplomacy Subrahmanyam Jaishankar confirmed that Delhi and Pakistan agreed to halt military activities, but added that India is occupying and will hold a "hard and uncompromising stance against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations".
“The chapanine will continue”
Does that mean this is the real end of the conflict? Or will we be faced with another, common and continuing struggle, akin to those that have plagued both countries for nearly 80 years?
— I'm certain it's not over, due to the fact that there's always a conflict of interest. Neither between India and Pakistan nor, more importantly, between India and China, which are strategical sponsors of Pakistan. The sharpanin continues, with varying strength and various measures “He says to Onet Dr. Witold Sokała, an expert in global relations, a writer for the “Journal of Legal Newspapers”.
— On the another hand, open military action specified as those observed in fresh days is just 1 of the manifestations of this conflict. In addition, we have common usage of terrorist organisations. India, for example, is supporting separatists in Balochistan, while Pakistan muslim groups operating in Kashmir,” he stresses.
— Pakistan’s actions are besides discreet aid to extremist Sikh groups. Although both sides officially deny it, many clues known to experts confirm these accusations. And this has been happening almost continuously for decades – he says. “The second aspect is India’s activities in distributing Indus water and its tributaries. Conflicts about access to water resources will become increasingly crucial in different parts of the world, not only at the ft of the Himalayas," he explains.
— India announced a plan before the military escalation to turn on its neighbours, namely to retreat from the 1960 agreement, under which Pakistan received crucial deliveries. They besides accelerated the construction of fresh hydroelectric plants and spare tanks, which will besides hit Pakistan's hydrological safety," the expert emphasizes.
— Finally, even before the final conflict sequence, India at the political stricte level tried to block another aid tranche for Pakistan, paid by the global Monetary Fund. As it turned out, specified attempts were unsuccessful," Dr. Sokała says. “All this shows how broad India’s action was to put force on Pakistan before the real outbreak of fighting,” she notes.
“The reality is that, despite akin numbers of atomic arsenals in both countries, India is definitely stronger erstwhile it comes to conventional weapons and, above all, erstwhile it comes to army numbers,” Dr. Sokała says. “India is simply a colossus, with a strong and dynamic economy, and Pakistan is bankrupt, dependent on IMF drips and increasingly on the support of the PRC,” he points out.
Chances of lasting peace? ‘I doubt’
— Turning to the basic question of whether there is simply a chance for peace after the Americans negotiated with them and Trump announced the ceasefire, I must say frankly that I uncertainty it,” Dr. Sokała says. “This corner of the planet was an arena of clashes between Muslims and Hindu people in pre-colonial times. The British authorities partially pacified this by force, but sometimes utilized tensions for their own purposes, not allowing them to completely disappear. The current phase of this ancient conflict continues, since the insurgency of independent India and Pakistan, and will proceed to linger," he explains.
— This is mostly the effect of a small random intersection of Kashmir into 2 parts, as part of the dismantling of British India, as well as the effect of demographic processes that make the Indian side of the border the Muslim population again largely. Hence the force from Pakistan to decision borders, although it must be admitted that both politicians and Pakistanis Generals, who have real power in this country, are alternatively restrained in this regard. However, there is simply a force on the increasingly radicalised public – this is Dr. Sokała.
“ Furthermore, in both countries governments are mostly hostages of a very extremist part of society that is pushing them to step up. However, in addition to this, it is besides crucial for external forces to proceed this conflict – the expert convinces.
Beijing Mackers
— The geostrategic situation in the region has changed dramatically," Dr. Sokała says. “India erstwhile quietly supported the russian Union, and Pakistan played for the American team. It's over. present India is gradually replacing arms with russian Western equipment, mainly American and French, increasingly working economically and strategically with the West and, above all, playing for their own powerful position. Meanwhile, Pakistan is simply a Chinese vassal," he explains.
“And Beijing will take all chance to mix the Pakistani-Indian cauldrons in this,” says the expert. He's got reasons. First, a constant conflict harms India, a natural rival of China. China can besides test their weapons in this conflict, which they supply Pakistan, and finally, they can grind the work of their intelligence, mainly satellite recognition, in real combat conditions – Dr. Sokała estimates.
“ Beijing will so make certain that it smokes and burgles, while at the same time ensuring that this conflict does not turn into a full - scale war. due to the fact that it could endanger the Chinese economy. A more serious conflict would disrupt supply chains, which would be a problem for China, mainly in the Indian Ocean, where 1 of the major routes of key importance to the Chinese economy runs," he points out.
How does the West react? Only diplomatic and economical pressures
— Smaller countries have no influence on this conflict," Dr. Sokała says. “We can only press India in economical and diplomatic ways so that it does not cross the escalation line. However, Narendra Modi is alternatively resistant to specified pressures," Dr. Sokała emphasizes.
— What is different is that the United States, possibly fresh Delhi has decided to take this step backwards in exchange for any concessions by Washington in the ongoing negotiations on American tariffs, he points out. “And 1 good thing is that on the another hand, the Chinese will besides be very careful about Pakistan so that it does not escalate besides much. due to the fact that while Beijing is tactically utilizing a possible "small escalation", it is not in its strategical interest to be more serious, especially nuclear. At least as long as the PRC lags behind the US and Russia in terms of the number of heads, due to course it prefers another factors to find the real power. Therefore, it allows Islamabad to make far-reaching bluffs, but it is improbable to let real usage of weapons of mass destruction. But, attention, this may change over time – the expert concludes.
