What do we know about the Ukrainian attack on the Russian submarine?

It is known that SBU is developing the task marine unmanned Since the start of the full-scale war, present having autonomous or semi-autonomic, one-time or multiple-use units in the arsenal, carrying heads weighing between 100 and 1000 kg. The drone operating in Novorosyjsk had to execute precise navigation in limited port space, bypassing barriers and protective barriers, indicating an expanding method level of Ukrainian unmanned systems.

Operational weakness

The degree of harm to the ship remains the subject of divergent assessments. The Ukrainian side, including SBU-related analysts, points to the serious effects of the submarine drone explosion, suggesting the anticipation of damaging delicate components for the operation of the ship, primarily the propulsion system, rudders or hull plating in the stern area. In this scenario, even the deficiency of penetration of the rigid fuselage could mean a long-term exclusion of the unit from operational activities.

In turn, any Western analysts point out that the available satellite images do not clearly confirm a direct hit in the hull of the ship. It is more likely that the detonation occurred at the wharf or close the unit. As Alexander Kowalenko, 1 of the leading Ukrainian OSINTs (Open origin Intelligence, or alleged white interview), emphasizes, even specified a variant does not exclude serious method consequences.

The shock wave in a limited port space may have led to microdamages, leaks or deformation of propulsion components which, in the case of a submarine, are crucial for safety and further service. Moreover, the fact that an effective attack is carried out in a protected base and the possible request for long-term inspections and repairs mean a real, operational weakening of Russian submarine capabilities in the Black Sea.

Permanent exclusion

The Russians are officially denying that their ship will be harmed. To prove it, they published a video showing a moored unit. However, the image is powerfully cast, this first. Secondly, the ship remains in the same place. On December 15, another Kilo class ship was moored nearby, and after the attack, this unit was searched to another part of the port. Hence, it is assumed that the ship under attack is not even suitable for manoeuvres inside a comparatively safe port basin.

The attack in Noworosyjsk was not the first Ukrainian attack on a Russian submarine. In September 2023 a unit called “Rosts over Don” was severely damaged in Sevastopol, during a massive Ukrainian rocket attack. Satellite images and OSINT accounts indicated a serious hull breach. After long renovation work, Russia announced that the ship would be reinstated.

However, in August 2024, “Rosts over Don” was again on the list of targets. The Ukrainian General Staff then reported an effective hit and sinking of the unit in the port. Although Moscow has not confirmed this version of events, there is no credible evidence of the ship's return to service. Most Western analysts consider “Rosts...” permanently excluded from use.

A risky march

From the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 to the end of 2025, the Russian Black Sea Fleet suffered crucial losses that affected its combat capabilities. The black series began in April 2022 with the failure of the “Moscow” rocket cruiser – the flagship unit (!). Then there were little spectacular but severe attacks on another ships. The destiny of the “Moscow” divided, among others, the large “New Cherkasque” and “Cezar Kunikov” landing ships, the “Siergie Kotov” corvette and almost 30 another vessels, sunk or temporarily decommissioned, which represents a 3rd of the full fleet.

As for the Kilo class ships, the Russians had 5 functional units in the Black Sea before the full-scale war broke out. Armed with Calibr missiles, they were regularly utilized for far-reaching rocket attacks on targets in Ukraine. Ukrainian strikes on specified units are so an effort to reduce the offensive capabilities of the opponent. If the attack of December 15 had actually worked, the Russians would have lost a 4th of their potential.

If that is the case, we will shortly see. If the attacked ship is intact, it will shortly go out into the sea and will be utilized again to fire on Ukrainian cities. If he got hit, his renovation in Noworosyjsk – where there is no adequate back area – is unlikely. In this scenario, it will be essential to tow the unit to 1 of the shipyards. The nearest dry dock is in Sevastopol, which means a risky “March” through the area where it will swarm with Ukrainian drones.