China wants to be not only a real, but besides a formally recognized superpower. This is not the consequence of 1 or the another president's policy, but of a long-term trend. Many commentators talk of president Trump's mistakes, but I personally do not see them. I see alternatively dramatic, sometimes desperate attempts to halt America's complete defeat from confronting the fresh pole of force that has emerged in the world.
Andrzej Derlatka creator of the Intelligence Agency and Polish Ambassador to Seoul
Recently, the gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Tiencin, about 80–100 kilometres from Beijing, just before the large triumph parade in planet War II, ended there. According to Chinese historical policy, China was to be 1 of the main allies and winners of this war. It is an component of the current communicative – present it is said so, next day may be different.
China's increasing power and global rivalry of powers
It must be admitted that China has made incredible progress, building its economical power and now besides military power. This is simply a large challenge primarily for the United States, due to the fact that Chinese politics question the foundations of American strategy in Asia and the Far East. This in turn provokes conflicts, especially in the South China Sea region, where incidents between the Chinese fleet and the US allies' forces are almost regular occurring.
Americans are investing enormously in the improvement of military bases and defence systems in the "first chain of islands" – from Japan to Taiwan to the south – and in the "second chain of islands", from Guamu to fresh Guinea. This is all about stopping China's expansion.
However, returning to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, it is evolving towards something like the Asian European Union. In addition to security, many elements of economical cooperation appeared there. Initially, it was a "Shanghai Five" aimed at resolving border disputes between the countries of Central Asia. In time, SCO was expanded to include India, Pakistan, and Iran, making it a forum in which conflicts are being tried to mitigate.
It should besides be noted that China has a policy of territorial concessions towards Central Asia, which allowed them to gain cooperation and designation of leadership in the region. Today, almost all post-Soviet Central Asia states are in SCO and accept the function of China.
However, interior tensions appear – especially between China, Russia and India. Before the summit, China proposed Russia as the leader of the countries of the global South. This is crucial due to the fact that the West – or about 50 states dominated by the US – is weakening against China's increasing power. This is seen in the Belt and Road initiative, where Beijing invests billions of dollars in Africa, Latin America, Turkey or Ukraine. In return, he expects political loyalty, which is clearly seen during the United Nations vote.
Some of these loans prove to be unprofitable, but China applies restructuring or debt relief, and three-quarters of the loans inactive benefit them. It gives them tremendous political capital. The West tried to respond – with Biden or the EU – but they were not effective.
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A fresh power arrangement in Asia and its consequences
Similarly in the military field: China is developing modern technologies faster than the US and Europe, producing them on a massive scale. Europe does not have 1 defence policy, and the function of the US as the leader of the West is increasingly challenged by the European countries themselves.
Also worrying are the signals related to Turkey, which aspires to both SCO and BRICS – an organization that already operates not only in Asia, but besides in Africa and Latin America. Although SCO has put aside plans to turn into a military bloc for now, it is not certain that specified a script will come back in the future.
Xi Jinping declares he wants to avoid a fresh Cold War and divide the planet into 2 military blocks. However, the simultaneous approximation of China and India shows that the strategy of forces is fluid. India – although arrogant and attached to their own way – can accept Chinese investments due to tensions with the United States.
We must besides bear in head the cultural context: the Chinese civilization affects the full region, an example of which is relations with South Korea. This complicates the situation in the context of North Korea, completely dependent on Beijing.
Finally, it is worth returning to our perspective. Poland feels the consequences of China's global action, as illustrated by the migration force on the border with Belarus – accepted by Beijing. We have limited possibilities for pressure, e.g. through transit in Małaszewicz, but these are tiny instruments.
The biggest problem is the dispersal of the West itself and the deficiency of mechanisms for joint action in global policy. It's threatening our future.
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