Chinese demography – no reason to be optimistic

chiny24.com 1 year ago

Demography – worrying data

Official data from Chinese statistic show an alarming trend. many efforts and incentives to increase the number of births in China do not produce the desired results. There are many factors that hinder household decisions about expanding the number of children. Chinese parents carefully make decisions about household growth due to expanding cost of surviving and education of children. Despite the financial benefits granted, offering cash prizes, property grants or support for unmarried mothers, the birth rate remains low. This is due to the declining number of young people in society, subsequent marriages and changes in social attitudes.

Demographic challenges

The Chinese policy of 1 child, in force from 1980 to 2015, was softened in 2016, and in 2021 3 children were allowed to be owned. Despite these changes, the number of children born second or 3rd in families last year fell to 53.9% compared to 55.9% in 2021. The full number of newborns fell below 10 million (9.56 million), the first specified case since 1949 and is simply a 10% decrease compared to 2021. At the same time, for all 100 girls there are 111.1 boys.

Population ageing

Last year, for the first time in six decades, the number of deaths exceeded birth rates, resulting in a population decline of 850 000 people to 1.41 billion. It besides accelerates the ageing of Chinese society. While maintaining today's trends by 2035 the average life expectancy in China will exceed 80 years compared to 78.2 years in 2021. Experts estimation that by 2035 the number of people aged 80 or over will scope 70 million in the PRC.

Challenges and perspectives

The current demographic trends in China are worrying. Despite various incentives and political changes, China's society is ageing, the age structure of the state is adversely shaped. It should be noted that demographic phenomena require time to change and the effectiveness of action may not be immediately visible.

Demographic prospects are not optimistic, but it is worth remembering that in China, the scope of possible solutions to this problem is much broader than in Europe. In China, as well as in all East Asia, pragmatism is higher than all kinds of ethical divisions.