Chinese logistics advantage? Expert: U.S. could lose to China “before first shot”

Logistics – the weakest link in American strategy

According to an analysis published on November 5, 2025 on the website Breaking Defense, American armed forces in the Indo-Pacific region may be paralyzed not by hostile means of destruction, but by a logistical crisis. The authors of the text – Eyck Freymann (Hoover Institution, Stanford) and Harry Halem (Yorktown Institute) – say that decades of under-financing, shortage of staff, maintenance negligence and strategy failure to forget supply infrastructure have made the logistics network the weakest point of the American strategy of deterrence.

"China's deterrence requires the US to grow not only the fighting forces, but above all the logistics infrastructure," writes the authors. Otherwise, Beijing could win “before the first shot is fired” by destabilizing US supply chains without the usage of armed forces.

Sensitivity to the first hours of conflict

The strategists inform that the U.S. military advantage concept in the region is based on a long, fragile chain of ships, aircraft and supply bases that, as the study says, could easy be disposed of by China in the early hours of the war.

As a historical warning, authors callback the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, erstwhile the American fleet, although strong, was not prepared for long-term combat action due to deficiency of adequate supplies and replenishment capabilities.

"Today we hazard repeating this mistake on a much larger scale – we deploy forces without a credible plan to keep them under fire," they wrote.

Three urgent recommendations for Washington

Freymann and Halem indicate 3 key directions of action:

1. Strengthening allies:
   • Use Japan and South Korea to jointly build ships, sea transport and share costs.
   • Using Australia, Philippines and Palau as places for reinforced logistics centers capable of repairing, replenishing ammunition and fuel supplies even under fire.
2. Conversion of defence funds:
   • Focusing the American Pacific Scaring Initiative (PDI) exclusively on logistics – this fund now allows for a shift of funds to non-wark targets.
3. Restoration of maritime national potential:
   • The Ready Reserve Force (reserve float), whose ships are on average over 40 years old and are called the "floating museum".
   • Increase the number of U.S. Maritime Trade Academy graduates.
   • Reconstruction of shipbuilding infrastructure.

The authors point out that the number of US-flagged ships dropped from over 6,000 during planet War II to little than 200 today, which drastically limits the ability to carry forces and cargo in the crisis.

Chinese answer: Logistics as part of modern military power

In the same week as Freymann and Halam's analysis, China revealed its strategical targets for the period 2026–2030, including accelerating the improvement of modern military logistics as a key component of "advanced combat capabilities". Details will be included in the 15th Five-Year Plan, which will be officially presented in March 2026.

The Chinese logistics strategy includes not only land and sea infrastructure, but besides integrated digital systems, modular supply centers and fast logistics consequence forces, capable of operating under disrupted communications and rocket attacks.

Strategic risk: conviction of US weakness

The authors of the analysis inform that if Beijing considers that the US is incapable to engage in a long-term conflict, it can decision on to its own goals.

In this context, logistics becomes not only a method issue, but a central component of the strategical balance in Asia.

According to strategists, “In a long war, not the 1 with the most missiles wins, but the 1 with the most resilient supply chain.”

Source:

• South China Morning Post – China could win a competition with the US ‘before a shot is even fire’: strategists, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3331805/china-could-win-contest-us-shot-even-fired-strategists
• Breaking defence – The Logistics Gap in U.S. Pacific Deterrence, November 5, 2025, https://breakingdefense.com/2025/11/the-logistics-gap-in-u-s-pacific-deterrance/
• Congressional investigation Service – The Pacific Deterrence Initiative: Background and Issues for Congress, October 2025, https://crsreports.congress.gov
• U.S. Department of defence – yearly study on the Military Sealift Command, 2025, https://www.msc.usff.navy.mil/About/FOIA/

Leszek B. Glass

Email: [email protected]

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