Faced with the escalation of the trade conflict between China and the United States in 2025, Beijing demonstrated resilience, which is the consequence of many years of preparation. erstwhile Donald Trump imposed a "reciprocated" work of 34% in April 2025 and then raised it to 84% and then 145%, China responded thus, without succumbing to negotiating pressure. The key to their firmness was consistent diversification of the economy and reducing dependence on the US.
Less dependence on the US market
Over the six years (2018–2024), Chinese exports to countries another than the USA increased by more than $1 trillion – this is about 2 times China's yearly exports to the United States. The full value of Chinese exports (including US exports) reached 2024. $3.6 trillionwhich shows the degree of independency from 1 market.
Food and technological security
Beijing deliberately reduced food imports from the US, diversifying deliveries. An example is soya (replaced by supplies from Brazil) or supporting wheat production in Central Asia. At the same time, China has accelerated the transformation of the industrial structure, reducing dependence on labour and exports of low-margin goods. Faced with the hazard of embargo on advanced technologies, Beijing invests in self-sufficiency, peculiarly in key sectors specified as semiconductors and renewable energy.
Time ahead and control of strategical natural materials
In the customs war, time played in favour of China. Beijing knew that the American economy – especially before Christmas and the 2026 congressional elections – was more delicate to disruptions in supply chains. Furthermore, China utilized its dominance in production rare earth metals (70% of global extraction and 90% of processing), which was a hidden weapon in negotiations. Without these natural materials, the American high-tech and arms manufacture could face serious problems.
Customs War Costs and fresh Trade Trends
Although US work rates fell from 145% to 30%, Chinese exports inactive feel the effects. Industries sending goods in tiny shipments (e.g. Shein, Temu) can face bankruptcy and moving production outside China accelerates. However, Unpredictability of Washington decisions can paradoxically increase Chinese exports. American importers, fearing further sharp tariff increases, began stockpiling in the first 4th of 2025, which translated into an increase in orders from China.
The war on customs is besides a war on nerves
China has shown that a long-term strategy for diversification and investment in key sectors allows them to last even US aggressive trade activities. However, conflict has a price – rising unemployment in China and inflation in the US are only any of the consequences. In the coming months, it will be crucial whether Washington decides to further escalate, or whether both sides search a compromise. Meanwhile, regulatory uncertainty in the US is already driving Chinese exports, as can be seen from the data for early 2025.
Leszek B. Glass
Email: [email protected]
© www.chiny24.com