China afraid about Kim Jong Un's plans. “The ticking bomb”

North Korea is 1 of the most isolated countries in the world. It's airtight. Everything that happens there is covered in mystery. We've got quite a few information coming to us from runaways, South Korea, China, and the United States. Nor should we forget the North Korean propaganda, whose truthfulness, however, is little, but actually zero.

For the West, its messages are absurd, and in any cases even comical, but for North Korean citizens this is an unquestionable truth, which may consequence in denial of long-term exile to the camp.

Here's 1 example. authoritative state doctrine says Kim Jong Il was born on 16 February 1942 on Mount Pektu-san. When he came into the world, despite the winter, flowers were to bloom on the mountain, the “gold rainbow” appeared, and the birds began to talk with a human voice. These symbolic phenomena were to confirm that the fresh leader was born in an extraordinary way and was "chosen by heaven." Propagandists chose this place on purpose. It was there, according to legend, that Tangun half-god was born, the founder of the first Korean kingdom.

Meanwhile, fact is more prosaic. The later dictator was born in 1941 in the russian Union, in the village of Wiatskoje close Chabarowska.

Three Generations

The Kim dynasty has indivisibly ruled North Korea for over 70 years. Its beginnings date back to the end of planet War II. The key character in this communicative is Kim Ir Sen – a man who not only built the foundations of the North Korean totalitarian system, but besides created 1 of the longest lasting political dynasties in modern history.

Kim Ir Sen was born in 1912, while Korea was a nipponese colony (1910–1945). The brutal policy of Japan, including economical exploitation, cultural repression and suppression of independency movements, created an environment conducive to the improvement of anti-colonial sentiments. Kim Ir Sen was raised in this environment.

After Japan's surrender in 1945, the Korean Peninsula was divided into 2 business zones – a northern region controlled by the russian and confederate Union occupied by the United States. In the north, the Soviets began searching for a local leader who could lead their task to build a satellite state. It was decided that the best individual would be Kim Ir Sen.

On 9 September 1948, the uprising of the Korean People's Democratic Republic (KRLD) was proclaimed and Kim Ir Sen became its first Prime Minister. His power was based on close cooperation with the USSR and China. Political opponents were effectively eliminated, and the cult of the individual developed in the country.

Kim Ir Sen decided to decision on. In 1950, he ordered his troops to invade US-backed South Korea. The decision to start the Korean War was to unite the peninsula under the communist banner. The north rapidly occupied most of the confederate neighbor. Her soldiers started occupying Seoul. The United States, incapable to leave their ally, decided to intervene militarily. The Northern troops were driven from the south.

The war that cost about 3 million lives ended with a patem. Both parties signed a ceasefire on 27 July 1953 in Panmundjem. A Korean Demilitarized region (DMZ) was formed along the 38th parallel that inactive divides the Korean Peninsula. Interestingly, both hostile countries have not signed the peace treaty, which means that they are formally inactive at war.

Grzegorz Roginski / PAP

Kim Ir Sen (P) on an authoritative visit to Poland. On the left, KC Secretary PZPR Wojciech Jaruzelski (May 1984)

Kim Ir Sen ruled North Korea until his death in 1994, laying foundations for a strategy that continues until today. His power was based on a combination of terror, propaganda, and josh ideology—a circumstantial mix of nationalism and self-sufficiency. Kim besides created the dynasty that his boy — Kim Jong Il (1994 – 2011) and grandson — Kim Jong Un (2011 — now).

A hard Friendship

North Korea has been working very closely with China since its very beginning. Both countries have strategical political, economical and military ties. Although Pjongyang is heavy dependent on his giant neighbor, this does not mean that he is in subjection to him.

— It is not that the Pjongjang authorities agree to everything and do precisely what the Beijing government wants. North Korea, despite Beijing's unrest, continues to make its atomic program, which is evidently a threat to South Korea but also... to China. Beijing, having no oversight of the atomic programme in Korea, does not know what is going on there, and this gives emergence to threats," says onet Nicolas Levi.

The expert points out that any mistake that would lead to a atomic disaster in North Korea will besides straight affect China for geographical reasons. — In fact, China is at a certain ticking, but to any degree rational, bomb. And in order for this bomb to not explode, the Chinese government must keep a government in Pjongjangu to any extent,” says the author of the book in French under the title “I was a North Korean Diplomat” ("J’Etais Diplomate Nord-Coreen").

What's Korea doing?

The absurd economical policy of the government and decades of global sanctions have ravaged the country financially. In addition, there was a famine in the 1990s that cost more than 2 million lives.

The COVID-19 pandemic shook the state. Authorities in 2020 strengthened borders and closed them for over 3 years. The guards were ordered to shoot anyone who tried to cross them. People were banned from leaving or entering the country. Almost all foreigner who was inside packed and left. — North Korea closed for 3 years and the de facto entry into that country was practically banned. This was not just about average Koreans. Even diplomats, members of the Kim household could not return, says Levi.

When the border closed, the authorities ceased importing grain from China, as well as fertilizers and machinery needed to grow food. Food smuggling from China, then sold in illegal markets where most North Koreans shop, became impossible (according to available data in North Korea there are 26.16 million people).

Nicolas Levi emphasises that we are incapable to measurement the GDP of North Korea as the government does not regularly print its statistics.

SWPS expert emphasizes that Pjongjang's gross income derives from the sale of natural resources specified as magnesia and coal. — Korea besides exports military infrastructure, seafood and to a lesser degree artistic works. The government besides makes quite a few money on tourism. Korea besides derives tremendous profits from the sale of drugs. There is talk of profits of respective billion dollars, which represents 30-50 percent of North Korea's income. It should besides be stressed that the government is making more billions of money sending thousands of workers abroad," he says.

I'm asking Nicolas Levi what the biggest deficit the Pjongjang government has. — Korea primarily imports energy, although it must be acknowledged that the government is to any degree energy independent. It uses wind farms and solar panels. Korea besides brings food, oil and imports all those products that North Korean factories are incapable to produce, specified as cars or construction materials, according to Onetu.

Korea will arm itself

North Korea is most likely the most militarized country in the world. State propaganda is constantly calling for "arming the full population" and defending the leader, Kim Jong Una. Giant economical problems have made the conventional North Korean weapon obsolete from the time erstwhile the russian Union supported Pyongyang in gathering supplies of artillery missiles and missiles.

The supply shortages are felt at all turn. Pilots seldom have the chance to fly due to chronic shortage of aviation fuel. The Army is struggling with food supply, petrol and spare parts, which importantly affects its operational capabilities. Military service lasts from 8 to 10 years.

KCNA / PAP

Undate photograph published in August 2023 by the authoritative North Korean Central Information Agency presents Kim Jong Una trying to test weapons during inspection of the ammunition mill

North Korea has not fought in any major conflict since the Korean War, so its combat capabilities stay a mystery. erstwhile Kim's soldiers set out to Russia to fight the Ukrainians, North Korean state media were silent.

North Korea, as calculated by the Institute for War Studies, had previously sent tiny advisory and specialised groups to abroad conflicts to observe and get certain method skills, specified as a group of 20 aviation professionals who trained pilots and flew aircraft during The 1973 Yom Kippur War. The Syrian opposition besides reported the presence of North Korean units fighting on behalf of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in 2016.

Western estimates find the number of North Korean armed forces at 1.2-1.3 million soldiers in active service and 7.6 million as reservists. The full number of North Korean peculiar forces can scope as many as 200,000 soldiers. North Korea relies on conscription, requiring men to service for 8 to 10 years, and women for 5 years. North Korea, as The fresh York Times says, citing data collected by South Korea, has 4,300 tanks, 8,800 artillery cannons, 810 fighters and 70 submarines.

The government on the army does not spare. According to any estimates, North Korea's yearly military spending reaches up to a 4th of its GDP.

Kim Bets on an Atomic

Nuclear weapons are a threat to North Korea and a bargaining chip in the global arena. Despite expanding force from sanctions and diplomatic isolation, the Kim Jong Un's government is relentless in its ambitions. Already in the 1950s, Kim Ir Sen, inspired by the success of the russian Union and the United States in this field, started a atomic program. His successors consistently followed his path.

The Punggye-ri atomic field was located in a mountainous region in the north-east of the country, about 100 km from the Chinese border. North Korea carried out all six atomic trials there: in 2006, 2009, 2013, January 2016, September 2016 and 2017. All tests were carried out in tunnels hidden in the interior of Mount Mantap. In 2018, the ground was closed.

Kim HEE-CHUL / PAP

North Korea begins dismantling the Punggye-ri complex (2018)

From 2018 to 2019 Kim Jong Un met with US president Donald Trump and another leaders, seeking concessions in exchange for limiting the atomic program. Despite the temporary warming, the talks ended without lasting agreement.

North Korea has never revealed the number of weapons held, and analysts and abroad intelligence agencies have only approximate estimates. According to the Stockholm global Institute for Peace investigation (SIPRI), North Korea has about 30 atomic warheads.

Nicolas Levi, in an interview with Onet, points out another aspect of Pjongjangu's military policy.

— Based on my conversations with refugees, with erstwhile diplomats, it is now the government that develops primarily... drones. The North Korean drone improvement program began in the 1960s. But then they had mostly exploratory tasks, and now they have offensive tasks," he says. He adds that these drones can carry biological and chemical weapons. “This could be a serious threat,” he stresses. Onetu’s caller points out that this The threat cannot be easy detected, inter alia, by satellite images, as is the case with atomic weapons.

— A ballistic rocket test is not something that will be prepared overnight and satellites are able to admit erstwhile specified a test may take place. And in the case of drone activity that can transport chemical weapons, the reconnaissance systems fail," he emphasises. “I see here a real threat, this spark, an component that can be dangerous not only for South Korea but besides for China,” she notes.

The expert points out that North Korea produces but besides sells its atomic technology. – The government sells knowledge, enriched uranium, sends its scientists to abroad centers, especially to the mediate East or Iran. In return, North Korea receives support in the UN safety Council, receives food and financial assistance – mentions.

Unity? ‘Theme does not exist’

In the early 21st century, South Korea's president Kim Dae-jung introduced a Blast Solar Policy aimed at bringing both Korea closer together through dialog and economical cooperation.

In 2000, there was even an historical summit between Kim Dae-jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong Ilem, which raised hopes of improving relations.

After Kim Jong Un took power in 2011, cooperation continued at an simple level. In 2018, there were even 3 meetings between South Korean president Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un. However, hope for peace proved to be impenetrable.

KCNA / PAP

Kim Jong Un and Moon Jae-in (2018)

– It's gone now. Last year the concept of unification disappeared from the North Korean Constitution. From public space any symbols, monuments referring to this thought began to disappear. Moreover, according to nipponese media, the subject of unification no longer exists in recently published books in North Korea, says an expert.

According to Onetu, “Korea shows in this way that it is simply a sovereign state, that it is simply a state that has nothing to do with South Korea and that it is simply a state that does not request unification to proceed to function.”

— Back in the 1980s, until 1994, erstwhile Grandpa Kim Jong Una — Kim Ir Sen ruled, the subject was up to date. It was then written about confederation, about increased economical cooperation, about unification, about joint economical projects specified as, for example, the industrial region in Kaesŏng. But it's all in the past. — concludes Nocolas Nevi.

Kaesŏng Industrial Centre was opened in 2004 as a joint venture between North and South Korea. This task aimed to combine capital and technology from the South with inexpensive labour from the North. During the highest period of operation, more than 50,000 North Korean workers worked at the centre. In 2016 in consequence to North Korea's rocket and atomic trials, South Korea decided to close this facility.