Today in China begins a visit by Cheng Li-wun, the current head of Kuomintang (KMT), the Taiwanese opposition party. This is simply a visit which takes place at a peculiar minute and, in my opinion, is of peculiar importance for the future past of the relation between Continental China (PRC) and the "rebellied province".
No, I do not think that Taiwan will become part of China in a very short period of time in the months, as Hong Kong and Macau 29 years ago, as part of the concept of "one state, 2 systems". In the case of Taiwan, the situation is completely different. This was not a colony, it is an area that became the “last pen of land” of the Republic of China, ruled authoritarianly by Chang Kaszek, leader of Kuomintang. The civilian War in China between 1945 and 1949 was fought between the Nationals (KMT) Chong and the Communists (KPR) Mao Zedong. KMT lost the war, but by the end of the 1970s. The 20th century was considered by the West (and especially the US) to be "the right China", those capable of representing China's interests internationally. Taiwan is present recognised as a state by 13 countries specified as the Vatican. Meanwhile, the PRC is simply a associate of the UN safety Council, the second planet economy, a major player in global relations. Even in general awareness China present is the PRC with the capital in Beijing, president Xi Jinping. fewer who know the name of the capital of the "rebellious province" (as Taiwan has been called since the 1940s), fewer who know the name of the current president of Taiwan.
There's not many who know who Cheng Li-wun is. She began her political career as a Democrat. At the turn of the 1990s and 2000, she was a associate of the Taiwanese parliament for the Democratic Progressive Party, but left the organization in 2002 in protest of DPP's camouflage of sexual harassment charges against 1 of the prominent members of the organization. As I mentioned, Cheng Li-wun is now the head of KMT, a organization that was erstwhile a deadly enemy of communists. Today, it is simply a Taiwanese concilation environment in relation to relations with the PRC. KMT is simply a organization that declares close-up with Continental China. After all, here and here the Chinese live. They live and do business together. Today, the island - ruled Democrats are a organization that advocates Taiwan’s sovereignty, declaring independence. Until recently, both parties treated their declarations as political, local and global weapons. KMT: pro-Chinese camp, Democrats (Democratic Progressive Party): pro-American camp.
And so it was, as in the case of Polish PO-PiS, until the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran war.
Today, six weeks after the joint attack on Iran by the United States and Israel, things are different. Only the Polish right believes that the US is the guarantor of anything. The Americans exposed all their military weaknesses in the Persian Gulf. He wrote a story about the power of controlling the seas and oceans, controlling the flow of goods and services, which Jacek Bartosiak utilized to talk about. A weak and affected by earlier attacks, Iran defends itself and strikes. Few, but painful. Iran controls traffic in the Strait of Ormuz and charges ships passing through it. Fees in Chinese yuan. Iran does not charge Chinese vessels. Taiwanese, yes. In the face of supply shortages, Americans began moving rocket systems from South Korea and another locations into the Gulf region and Israel. There's no way these systems are going back to their first locations any time soon.
Taiwanese Democrats, like Poland, believed in buying American protection through purchases of American weapons. Meanwhile, Taiwan safety Monitor estimates that late deliveries of U.S. weapons to Taiwan were worth around $32 billion at the end of January 2026 and that part of the implementation was moved to the years 2028 and later. Let me remind you that the fresh increase in tension between Taipei and Beijing and Beijing and Washington was connected to the plan to sale Taiwan arms by the United States for about $10 billion. present it is known that there will be no weapons. The Americans have given all their customers a message that the sale will resume erstwhile the U.S. and Israel's stock is renewed. And that'll take years.
Democrats were left with their religion in the support of the US, like Himilsbach of English.
The current war against Iran carries a increasing wave of economical problems. The supply of hydrocarbons will not abruptly return to levels before the end of February, nor will the supply of helium (for semiconductors), fertilizers (for agriculture). Neither will the illusion of the Made in USA shield return.
And under the circumstances, Cheng Li-wun arrives in China today. They say he might even meet Xi. He is to visit Nanjing, where the Sun Yatsen mausoleum is located, the creator of independent China, the first president of the Republic of China, the founder of the Whampoa military school in which they operated and Mao Zedong as well as Chang Kajszek.
Cheng Li-wun goes to China to talk to KPCh leaders about what he connects, not what he shares. This does not mean that tomorrow, the day after next day Taiwan will become an integral part of People's China. Both sides are aware of this fact. Taiwanese people looking at Hong Kong are in no hurry to accept the same solution. But the Chinese of KPC and KMT are patient. Any problems will most likely solve another problems. economical difficulties, worsening Taiwanese surviving conditions, no solid support another than China's Continental.
Beijing says we'll build you state-of-the-art infrastructure, invest you in people, education, science, economy. And he will. due to the fact that he has resources, he has experience, he has dozens of examples that he can.
As a consequence of the Gulf War, Beijing gained priceless time. Plenty of time. Americans do not have the strength, resources, funds to actually operate in the West Pacific for the coming years. And the Chinese have all this and free hands. They don't gotta worry about South Korea and Japan. They have Kim Jong Una with his atomic weapons and increasingly better means of delivery.
The drops are digging through the rock. Cheng Li-wun's visit to China is another specified drop. The question is the condition of the rock. possibly it is already very, very grim. It was expected to be granite, and possibly it's a lousy sandstone.
It's worth watching the dynamics of events.
Leszek B. Glass
Email: [email protected]
