The revival of the muslim State and Al-Qaeda, further military upheavals, civilian wars, rivalry of powers for resources and influence on the continent, a network of recruiters recruiting volunteers for the war in Ukraine – this is what a large part of Africa is today, especially the Sahel region. The deepening chaos, in addition to the apparent humanitarian consequences on the ground, besides affects another parts of the world, including Europe.
At the end of January, there was an attack by militants of the muslim State at Niamey Airport, the capital of the country, and a military base on its territory. The storm preceded the strikes of drones – the tactics of utilizing unmanned drones developed during the war in Ukraine, as it has already spread among terrorist, guerrilla and jihadist groups.
In addition to the Nigerian armed forces, soldiers of the Italian military mission were besides present on the base, and the Russians besides participated in countering the attack. African Corps – Russian expeditionary formation, which in many countries of the continent replaced Wagner Group. The attack itself caused global concern not only due to the unprecedented scale, but besides the fact that there was just a fewer twelve trucks of a convoy of radioactive uranium from a mine in Arlit. Transport – most likely for export – is stuck in Niamey due to an unstable safety situation on the way to the Gulf of Guinea ports.
The attack on Niamey Airport can service as an excellent symbol of the situation in the Sahel region: muslim rebellions, abroad troops presence, fast spread of fresh military technologies and rivalry for strategical natural materials. The full region, extending from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, has present become an arena of overlapping armed conflicts, rivalry of powers, political crises and jihad expansion.
The western part of the region is destabilised by the activities of the muslim State structures and Al-Qaeda and their local affiliations. These organisations – defeated and marginalised in the mediate East – stay active in Africa and even make and strengthen their position.
The muslim State in Africa is estimated to have respective 1000 militants and is capable of conducting operations throughout almost West Africa. Neither the Western military missions, nor the presence of Russian instructors and soldiers of the African Corps have so far been able to permanently inhibit its expansion.
The situation is akin with Al-Qaeda, operating in the Sahel region through the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslim (JNIM). This organization operates mainly in the territory of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – countries forming the alleged Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and closely cooperating with Russia. In Mali alone, JNIM militants, despite the presence of a large contingent of the African Corps, conducted a fuel supply blockade for the capital and another major cities for months, causing a major fuel crisis.
Using Russia's inability to guarantee stableness in the AES countries, both the United States and France – not long ago forced to retreat their troops from these countries – they effort to rebuild their influence there, offering safety support. This is met with the Kremlin's sharp reaction, which accuses the West of neocolonialism and supporting terrorist groups.
In the central part of the Sahel, remains Wagner Groups, marginalised after The Rebellion of the Prigovina, keep their last base in the Central African Republic. They supply protection to president Faustin-Archange Touadéra, training the country's armed forces and supporting them in the fight against many rebel groups, in return profiting from access to local natural resources.
Citizens of European countries outside Diori Hamani global Airport in Niamey, a week after the coup deposed 1 of the last pro-Western leaders in the jihad-stricken Sahel, 2023.
On the east outskirts of the Sahel, tensions emergence between Eritrea and Ethiopia, and both countries are on the brink of open conflict. In neighboring Sudan, on the another hand, another installment of the civilian war, which has been in advancement for decades, has claimed hundreds of thousands of casualties and has forced millions to flee. Both sides of the conflict are supported by abroad actors: rebels by the United arabian Emirates, Ethiopia and Libya, and government side by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey or Russia.
Such a chaotic safety situation in a region of respective countries with a full area of more than 10 million square kilometres and inhabited by respective 100 million people cannot be left without affecting the remainder of the world. Violent wars and humanitarian crises are causing increased migration force on Europe. Including Poland, due to the fact that any of the refugees, seeking security, may be encouraged by criminal groups that offer their way to Europe across our border with Belarus. These include persons associated with extremist groups, increasingly experienced in the usage of fresh technologies, including drones, to terrorist activities.
Chaos in the region besides uses Russia, selling weapons to the war-torn African countries and offering assistance to instructors and mercenaries in exchange for political benefits and access to natural resources. In the face of massive losses in Ukraine, the Kremlin besides intensifys the recruitment of volunteers and mercenaries in African countries. Both on social media and on-site, there are full networks of recruiters tempting volunteers to service in the Russian army with promises of large money or attracting false promises of civilian labor.
There is no indication that the situation in the Sahel will stabilise. In the foreseeable future, the region will stay 1 of the major outbreaks of global instability. And the consequences of chaos – from migration to terrorist and geopolitical threats – will increasingly be felt on our continent.
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