Paweł KasprzakI run for the Sejm from 10th place on the fresh Left list in the 19th constituency for Warsaw and abroad. Left expects to take 2 tickets here this time (in 2019 she took 3, until 4. she ran out of little than 2,000 votes). The staff is counting on Jack Dehnelem (we are both outsiders) we may be able to bring "outside" votes and that they collect another mandate above those 2 that present stem from polls
Four years ago, this additional SLD mandate, which lacked so little, would be at the expense of the Law and Justice. If so, I am ready to work for the success of the Left, although the position of civilian activist who wanted to run and inactive wants to independently, does not very much let me to play on the squad of any party. I can do that. This is about the success of the democratic opposition as a whole. But this goal – although it excites everyone so much – is inactive a small something.
Participation in this list and even specified a circumstantial function on it will besides let me to combat the highly anti-democratic and strategically stupid logic of voting on the strongest, which is already accompanied by open calls present to trample the another 2 opposition lists against the electoral threshold. People of good will do it – they do it completely thoughtlessly. It would be an election disaster. And it won't be easy. due to the fact that there's no common list. Attempts to replace it with a list can only be understood, knowing despair and frustration – but these are suicide attempts and they request to be countered with all their might.
The image attached here shows the dependence of the votes obtained from the place on the list – based on the results of 2019 for the 5 parties then. 37% of us vote for “ones”, 14% for “twos” and then the hyperbole is very close to the bottom. And that's just average. In Warsaw, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska received over 70% of all the votes cast on the KO, winning 6 out of 9 seats for this list. Around the 10th place on the left is typically the consequence of a 1000 votes, in the KO list – stronger definitely – it is respective thousand. Michał Szczerba, who then and present from 7th place, entered 4th place with a consequence of 13,747 votes. But this is Michael, not only a large guy, but besides well known to everyone. He chased out of this 4th place Joanna Fabisiak – a intellectual writing in the lists of KOs, who obtained the MP's mandate with a evidence low, comic score of 5 347 votes.
I powerfully advise against voting for "ones." Yes, people in these places are characters who deserve the voices – and they will surely get adequate of them. The more votes they take from their list, the more random the results will be in further places. Who will take the ticket won by the leader will be decided by the families and friends voting for him. Whoever has more in the same territory wins. But I can advise against these things at will. The graph and all available data give me no chance.
And I want to get a different score.
I want 63,314 votes
Though 20,000 should be adequate to get in. There's no point in jumping over to the spot, looking for 20,000, or possibly 25,000. The goal is 63 314 votes, due to the fact that that's what it takes in Warsaw to get a ticket for sure. Under any circumstances, whatever list, by taking it out. Without the aid of the list leader and the participation of his votes. This is our ticket. Voters. Free from organization discipline and all these court pushes. 63 314 votes would mean that I am taking the mandate of a associate not by any letter, but only by those who have put a cross by my name. And no other.
Just so we're clear and not magic:
- By my name, Not Tuska., to whom, like all politician in Poland, I want as much success as possible and for which he will most likely vote well over half a million people, wishing to make Kaczyński proud, while taking care of nothing but this satisfaction.
- By my name, and Not anyone in the KO, which will be supported by more people this year than usual, due to the fact that you gotta bet on a certain thing, not break the votes, etc. Among those of us on the KO list, on which you cannot vote for me, is Michał Szczerba, for whom I would like to vote very much.
- You'd gotta bet on me, too, and Not for Adrian Zandberg.who will be a “one” or no 1 else.
Can this work? specified a result—or any specified order— never happened to anyone at the start of the list. Nowhere.
63,314 votes are, however, 4.5% of all votes in this district. And I got over 15% 4 years ago. Practically without the campaign, in addition, accepting images of the majesty of the largest opposition party, appearing against her candidate, pressed into the legislature from Warsaw by Kazimierz Ujazdowski. So possibly there's a chance? It can't be estimated due to the fact that it's a completely different situation. There will be 200 candidates for the Sejm, of which 5 "ones" will receive at least 50% of the vote, in fact much more. In this situation, the average of 0.26% – 4.5% would gotta be, almost 20 times that. But still, that 15%...
Who voted for me and will vote again?
At the time 85,720 votes were a large surprise to me. That was an amazingly good score. But I'm inquisitive and beautiful solid. So I worked hard to figure out who to thank for this result. The consequence was embarrassing. Above all, the Confederate voters voted for me – they did not have their own legislature candidate, in specified a situation they chose opposition much more than PiS, and here they could rub their noses and both, which they simply did. This won't happen again. I can't get those people's voices due to the fact that they'll have their candidates.
I talked to quite a few them on the streets. They didn't share their views, but they saw me have them. And many of them are enough. For very many of them, Kai Godek's anti-abortion crusade was nonsense, but they thought she was just an idealist, and it was her alleged honesty that they believed. Gregory Braun thought he was crazy, but that was besides proof of his authenticity. Bully Korwin-Mikkei, these people didn't even effort to understand, but they knew so much that throughout their lives Mikke, dressed in that moron fly of his, said precisely the same thing. I mean, they stood in perspective, respect. I fell into the same category of freak in their eyes, which is not a compliment to me, but the conclusion of this situation is already good news. The rightful views of Confederate voters exist, but not always. Their “antisystemism” is something independent of this – it is simply a different matter. And more important. In politics they search authenticity and credibility. That's not why the Confederacy is increasing – as the commentators say – that KO is turning left. It doesn't turn, and even if it does, no of the Confederate youth are fooled by politicians and do not believe their declarations. They do not like a table that they want to overturn due to the fact that they think – and have reason – that views in “adult politics” do not be and politicians change them on request. Confederacy grows erstwhile people halt believing another parties.
SEE ALSO: Where our vote will have the top impact on the score. applicable Election Guide, Part 2
You can fight for those voices. Not smitten, not searching for "programming convergences", as Rafał Trzaskowski ineptly tried between the turn of the presidential vote. I got their votes without a shadow of specified a treat, talking about abortion in the 3rd trimester... “Antisystemism” understood as an abomination of false and cynical politics does not request to have a right-wing face. This disgust can and must be understood. It can besides have a lefty face – and so it was frequently in history. It may besides have a "citizen face". It is not only that we owe Poland to cut the voices of this dangerous party. We owe these young people an alternate – due to the fact that we left them with no choice but Krzysztof Bosak and Grzegorz Braun. The ‘table’ should truly be ‘turned over’. It's not brown lawmen who are necessary. It has to start a fresh one. Just like that.
Yeah, I got about 30,000 votes. The remainder came from voters of today's Left. And so most of them voted for Ujazdowski – “by reason” or “by loyalty”. As far as percentages and absolute numbers were concerned, they were about the same and as many as those who had previously voted for Spring in the European elections, although most supporters of Biedron "by reason" voted for the European Schetina Coalition. It is simply a hard and conscious electorate – but it is besides impossible to number on this time, due to the fact that he has left-wing politicians on his list to support.
There must be any "our electorate", the possible of civic movements. But it did not give 85,720 votes in those conditions. most likely wasn't big. erstwhile I compose these, I compose to this group of people. I have not yet accumulated for promotion and I have not produced “virals” – I will not break through to anyone else.
What am I hoping for?
I'll do whatever it takes. I'm going to break into the Pravita and the left bubble with a storm. I'm gonna make these people think. I know how.
A bit worse with the centre "mainstream", due to the fact that for him I am the other of an "adult" and a "effective" politician, "dreams" for a better democracy he is not curious in, due to the fact that "first you gotta win", and this is assured by Donald Tusk and no 1 else. I respect the fear of wasting votes. I respect and realize the primacy of immediate tactics over any other, even the most crucial goals. But politicians left us in a situation where no rational voting strategy exists if we want – and I want – to win first with the Law and Justice. 3 letters are a warrant that we will accomplish the worst possible result. It can be made even worse by the decision to support the strongest.
SEE ALSO: How will the PiS fake the election?
I know how to give voters a chance to make a rational decision, though a rational strategy for a common list was drowned in the name of ideas for the lives of politicians. I will let my voters to number before the elections, give them the instrument of real assessment of opportunities, and they will be able to be certain that neither their vote will be wasted nor the mandate will be given to the PiS or the Confederation. I'm not going to pull anyone out of my mouth talking about the certainty of victory. I'll warrant you that. It will be known before the vote if the vote for me makes sense. It's a fair and clean case.
I inactive have my chances. I want to do something that no 1 has done before. It's nothing fresh to me. I hope not opportunities – these will be clear to everyone before the vote and will not be a substance of faith. I'm counting on what those 63,314 votes would be worth under impossible conditions. And this is priceless. It's worth doing anything for.
Distressed people surviving with hope in protests and in many years of resistance, we will show them and everyone else that a civic voice can be a power and sometimes it can be. That the civic movement is able to overcome the overwhelming inertia of organization machines, that it is possible for politicians to perceive to us, alternatively of instructing and graciously agreeing to hear our requests, that we can yet fulfil our constitutional promise and become – all citizens and citizens – owners of the institution of Polish democracy.
I don't request anything, I just truly want it.
I'm sorry about your individual plot. Having achieved the impossible and obtained a mandate, I will finish my word in 4 years. My youngest kid will be 15. He'll most likely be six feet tall. And he's most likely inactive not talking. I can't imagine what it's gonna look like to go into town with him. Anything at all. How he'll eat, how he'll dress, how he'll look at his bad mood, how he'll look at his crazy moments of joy. How we can handle him and him. Not to mention I don't want to imagine his life in any kind of DPS erstwhile I die and my Agatha is gone. On this occasion – and this will happen in an imagined and alternatively close future, due to the fact that I am old – we must accomplish at home and in the household things at least as unattainable as these damn elections. Getting into it, I'm truly driving around a gang I can't imagine. I've spent 8 years on something else. And due to me, others in my family.
I decide to ride the band because, yes, it is the right thing to do. due to the fact that it just so happens that no of my friends will do it for me. due to the fact that the value of it is so large that I truly want it to happen. There are people who first measure chances and erstwhile there are not many, they quit on the most valuable goals. Realists – that's what they call themselves. Or pessimists.
Conservatives to call things politically. large numbers talk for their reasons, due to the fact that it takes countless trials to yet win in anything fresh and valuable. There are others who look at the value of the goal and make an effort regardless of the chance. They're idealists, or optimists, progressives. These mostly lose to the law of large numbers. Here, however, the value of these 63 314 votes is as large as the odds seem slim and how without precedent would be specified a result, especially for individual outside organization machines. There's no point in a chance account with that much value.
I'll do whatever I can and do. shortly the run will start and – I can do it will be different from all. I truly want to win. This is not crucial to me – I have something completely different on my mind. This is crucial to all of us and to all of our children. Like my most beautiful in the world, my dearest Hans, who does not talk and lives in his own, fortunately beautiful world, like my remaining three, my grandchildren. The planet has to change a lot to make it live. So they can all do it. That's the kind of brothel they can't leave behind. No, that's it.
I'm counting on you guys to read this.
