Cooperation: Małgorzata Czarnik, Paweł Gawryluk
– 2 weeks before presidential election day the state of rivalry seems to be the most equalized since Kamala Harris took over in July from Joe Biden the function of Democratic organization candidate
– The last 2 or 3 weeks have brought definitive inhibition of Harris' favorable polling trend and recovery of a crucial proportion of Trump's losses, which is due to a number of factors, including the overly cautious and under-expressive Harris campaign
– each of the 7 key states is now widely regarded as an arena of very equal competition, without a clear favorite
– Harris moved on to the media offensive trying to regain momentum from August and September, but Trump is campaigning, which – although inactive aggressive and polarizing – seems to be more intense
– fresh electoral promises barely appear in the campaigns of both major candidates, so the result of the election will be decided, among others, by mobilising electoral bases, the effectiveness in the fight for a tiny percent of undecided voters in key states and by offering voters real opportunities to change
Overall picture
A fewer weeks of fast growth in support in national polls and in key states and the winning debate against Donald Trump was not adequate for Kamali Harris to launch the final period of the run as a favorite.
Although the current U.S. vice president inactive frequently leads (although illusory advantage) in investigation from Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, in which a triumph would be adequate for her to win the election (19, 15 and 10 votes respectively at the Electoral College), however, the Republican candidate has made most of the loss, thus all 3 industrial states of the north are now considered to have no clear favourite in the presidential race. On the another hand, in 3 another key states, namely Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona (16, 16 and 11 electoral votes respectively), Trump mostly has an advantage in the polls. Harris leads minimally in Nevada, however, which exposes only 6 electors [1♪[2♪[3].
The reasons for changing trends in polls are complex. Firstly, for respective weeks after replacing the unpopular Joe Biden Harris, she benefited from the effect of freshness and assurance of voters who associated her with her appearance in the presidential race a chance to change, which allowed her popularity to emergence rapidly in July [4]. Secondly, her energetic and very positive, but at the same time reasonably predictable and general, a run not abounding in groundbreaking announcements and electoral promises has caused her to find less and less Americans to solve her problems. Her frequent visits to the media allowed voters to get to know the candidate better, but at the same time they showed any smallness of her program, as well as her willingness to prosecute Joe Biden's unpopular economical and social policy, frequently highlighted by both herself and the president himself. At the same time Trump and JD Vance, his candidate for vice president, run a very dynamic run in key states and the media and make bold demands, which brings any results despite Harris's very large financial and organizational staff.
Surveys and key electorate groups
This year's rivalry for the U.S. President's office is leveled, and current forecasts indicate that in the case of Kamala Harris's win only in 3 key states, namely Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, she could win with Donald Trump at the Elector College by only 270:268. As in any presidential campaign, there are many polls indicating the triumph of 1 or the another candidate, but the change in trends over the past 2-3 weeks is very clear: in average national surveys and in key Trump states it gains support. As of mid-October, there is simply a broad consensus that in each of the 7 key states the chances of winning both major candidates are akin [5which translates into a akin result forecast by voting at the Elector College [6♪[7]. The question is whether and to what degree the polls can favour a candidate: while many of them underestimate Trump in 2016 and 2020, in alleged half-elections (midterms) to the legislature of 2022, most studies pointed to a advanced Republican victory, which did not occur.
An crucial challenge for each candidate will be to mobilise their alleged "election base", namely those groups of voters who mostly vote in each election in the same way.
In the case of Harris, 1 can mention primarily the Greater Town electorate and with higher education, and Trump will have provincial voters and those without higher education. However, there are a number of groups of voters in which political sympathy changes e.g. black people, Latin people, suburban residents, workers and others (in almost all case with sex distinction). For example, Harris enjoys the support of a large majority of black voters (but lower than Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020), but more women [8Which makes her come out with programme proposals for black men [9]. Trump, for which most white men in general vote, as well as white women with no higher education [10], greatly improved its rankings in voters of Latin origin (especially men who mostly support Trump) [11He has late organised a gathering with voters specifically addressed to this group [12]. The top attention is given to alleged undecided voters who, according to various studies, represent respective [13To a twelve percent [14of all voters. It is simply a disunited, dynamically changing and poorly explored part of voters, in which representatives of all mentioned and another groups of voters can be found depending on the state.
Although the majority of voters will give their votes on the day of the presidential election, which is November 5, there is simply a anticipation in the US of voting "early" (Early voting), any states have provided this anticipation since late September. Voting – both early and election day – can be done by correspondence or in person, depending on the state of the election. Traditionally, the voters of the Democratic organization are more likely to usage the "early" vote and the correspondence route, and Trump himself and many Republicans have been criticizing these methods for years. However, this year there are cases of encouraging voters to vote before election day e.g. by Trump's support Elon Musk, who agitates for the "early" vote in Pennsylvania [15]. any states as early as mid-October study the breaking of erstwhile attendance records in Early voting [16♪[17However, the figures themselves show only a part of reality and do not let for better electoral forecasts.
Harris run – trying to get out of the scheme
Donald Trump's aggressive run and JD Vance's inhibition of Kamala Harris's favorable trend in the polls led the Democratic candidate to take greater risks in the form of primarily more frequent media interviews and so-called. town halls, that is, meetings with voters or interviews conducted by the media involving the public. Among these are: participation in the “60 Minutes” program run by CBS station, in “The View” in ABC station and interview for conservative FOX News station. Their advantage was to be able to better know the current vice president by the Americans and, in peculiar in FOX, to respond to allegations and doubts about the legacy of Biden/Harris administration (e.g. immigration policy).
However, the hazard taken by Harris was limited practically only to more frequent media appearances and to expanding attacks on the main opponent. She did not take advantage of many opportunities to present fresh programme proposals that would convince Americans that her presidency would not be a simple continuation of Biden's regulation and would give the chance for a change awaited by voters.
On the contrary, in The View, Harris, erstwhile asked if she would have taken any action in any area another than Joe Biden, could not identify a single example, and even admitted that she was active in all the major decisions. It was only later in the program that she added that unlike Biden, she would offer a position in her office to a Republican [18]. In FOX News, she assured that her presidency would not be a continuation of Biden's rule, and she herself would bring fresh experiences and ideas, which, however, cannot sound convincing to voters [19]. Especially since Biden himself admitted in early October that Harris had a crucial share in the full achievements of the current administration, including the work on key laws [20].
Harris inactive has a very large media, financial and organizational advantage [21Over Trump. Her run raised a full of over $1 billion from donors starting in July, which is about twice as much as Trump's campaign, which raised about 430 million [22]. In her case, the run is besides run by erstwhile presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, and Harris' main message is very akin to Obama's message, which especially in the 2008 run sought to give voters hope. Harris is following a akin path, with late very clear emphasis on the anticipation of Trump's regulation being a very unstable and unpredictable period [23]. There may be any disparity in public communication between her and her squad and the White House. The latter, however, openly supports Harris, but any declarations seem to undermine her chances, for example, erstwhile Biden praises the willingness of Florida politician Ron DeSantis to cooperate in the fight against the effects of the hurricane (Harris complained that DeSantis had not responded to her telephone call) or erstwhile the president admits that Harris had full participated in the implementation of his political agenda, making it hard to present herself as an alternate to Biden [24].
Trumpa “total campaign”
Donald Trump, despite a little professionally organized run in the field and greater staff chaos, is effectively making up for these shortcomings with dynamics, a advanced degree of individual commitment to both his and J.D. Vance's meetings with voters and media appearances, as well as courageous and controversial electoral promises. In the area of media activity, any support for Trump is JD Vance, who despite the low popularity rate in the polls [25] is very media-efficient, as has already been demonstrated by his series of performances in many key tv stations at the turn of August and September. On October 10, he definitely won with Tim Walz the debate of candidates for vice president, which in itself does not have a decisive influence on the campaign. As far as electoral promises are concerned, they are not new, and their implementation could either not be feasible for legal reasons or would have a hard-to-predict consequences for the US, specified as mass deportations of millions of illegal immigrants or duties on all products imported into the United States, but Trump's advantage is that it makes explicit demands, while Harris avoids them by positioning himself as a candidate for the measure.
On Trump's side, Elon Musk runs a very intense campaign. Not only did he formally support the erstwhile president immediately after his first assassination effort on his life, but he besides set up a alleged super-committee ("Super PAC") election called "America" to rise funds from donors to Trump, paid a full of $75 million to him, agitated at a vote rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on October 5 [26], uses its own Twitter (renamed X) to fight political and worldview, and organises a series of meetings with voters in Pennsylvania. The second step at least balances at the border of national law, as the voter's participation in electoral events made it conditional on signing an thought declaration containing a number of typically conservative postulates [27] and then announced that any registered voter who signs the declaration would receive $100 [28].
Bibliography:
[1] Last Polls, 5 Thirty-Eight, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/.
[2] Niall Stanage, Polls edge toward Trump: Here’s where the swing states stand, 19.10.2024, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4942104-trump-gains-race-white-house/.
[3] Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump, The fresh York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html.
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[5] 2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings, The Cook Political Report, https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings.
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[9] Will Weissert, Harris announces a fresh plan to empower Black men as she tries to energy them to vote for herAP News, 15.10.2024, https://apnews.com/article/harris-black-men-empowerment-voter-policy-proposals-67ac83899af785cf4d8788b9fcdeb592.
[10] Jill Filipovic, The complex reality of Trump’s sex gap, MSNBC, 16.10.2024, https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-fox-news-town-hall-women-voters-gender-gap-rcna175568.
[11] Jennifer Medina, Ruth Igielnik, Jazmine Ulloa, Harris Struggles to Win Over Latinos, While Trump Holds His Grip, Poll Shows, The fresh York Times, 13.10.2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/13/us/politics/latinos-trump-harris-poll.html.
[12] Franco Ordoñez, Trump tried a friendlier pitch with Latino voters at a Univision town hall, NPR, 17.10.2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/10/17/nx-s1-5150533/donald-trump-univision-town-hall.
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[15] Mike Catalina, Elon Musk holds his first solo event in support of Trump in the Philadelphia suburbsAP News, 18.10.2024, https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-america-pac-donald-trump-344f1ecc9770c4e394fceb7bbbe2b237.
[16] Eduardo Medina, North Carolina Officials study evidence Turnout for First Day of Early Voting, The fresh York Times, 18.10.2024 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/18/us/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-record-turnout.html.
[17] Julia Mueller, More than 1 million votes cast in Georgia during early voting period, The Hill, 18.10.2024, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4941346-1-million-votes-cast-georgia/.
[18] Ebony Davis, Edward-Isaac Dovere, Kate Sullivan, Harris says there’s not much she’d have done differently than Biden over the last 4 years, CNN, 8.10.2024, https://edition.cnn.com/politics/harris-2024-campaign-biden/index.html.
[19] Lindsay Kornick, Kamala Harris asserts her president 'will not be a continuation' of Biden’s, FOX News, 16.10.2024, https://www.foxnews.com/media/kamala-harris-asserts-her-presidenty-will-not-continuation-bidens.
[20] Press Briefing by president Biden, Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, and National economical Advisor Lael Brainard, The White House, 4.10.2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2024/10/04/press-briefing-by-president-biden-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-and-national-economic-adviser-lael-brainard/.
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[26] Jessica Piper, Lisa Kashinsky, Elon Musk give $75M to his pro-Trump super PAC, Politico, 15.10.2024, https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/15/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/elon-musk-75m-america-pac-00183856.
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