Firstly, as I argued last week, while the mineral agreement for Ukraine did not seem worth the paper on which it was written (with zero real commitments to anything, whether it be safety or US funding), it gave Zelensk the chance to "quality" spend time in the White House. an chance to present Ukrainian case and, in worst case, to find where Trump's administration stands — with Russia or Ukraine. If this were the first, Ukraine could at least start preparing properly.
As it turned out, it was the worst possible scenario, and the aggression of both Vance and Trump towards Zelenski had to be a clear signal for all that they were on the side of Russia. Indeed, Trump even repeated his words from the Helsinki Summit that he trusted Putin — much more than Zelensk or Ukraine. Ukraine now knows that the United States is not behind it and will be better prepared as a result. She'll gotta take another strategies and options.
Better peace conditions for Ukraine
Secondly, The U.S. position has been revealed to the world. They stand behind Russia and can no longer be seen as a neutral arbiter in peace talks. In fact, The U.S. has lost their right to hold these talks..
Prior to the gathering in the Oval Office, Ukraine and Europe were mostly removed from the peace process which was led by the US and Russia.
Ukraine and Europe feared that they would gotta live with an imposed peace that would most likely not last. However, due to the divided in the White House, Europe was forced to push into the peace process and take the initiative. As a result, each area will most likely be better for Ukraine, more durable and stable “Trump seemed free to treat Ukraine’s legitimate safety concerns, but Europe will now be able to put them at the centre of attention.
The initiative was taken over from Russia and the U.S. — which worked on an order contrary to the interests of Ukraine and Europe.
In fact, The four-point peace plan proposed by Britain, Italy and France seems reasonable. Arm Ukraine, give her tools to defend, effort a monthly truce (including air and sea, which is easier to verify) with Russia before a full-scale ceasefire occurs. Europe has made it clear that Ukraine needs safety guarantees and weapons to defend itself.
No excuses for Europe
Thirdly, events in the mediate East had to be the final alarm signal for Europe — that NATO is dead, the American safety guarantees for Europe are over and that they must take action if they want their own safety.
I think we saw it this weekend. There is now no justification for Europe not to increase its defence spending and not to rebuild its hard force. No excuses.
European defence spending will increase, but as we all know, Europe is faced with capacity constraints in the military industry, and so short-term dependence on the US is inevitable.
Unrejectable proposal
However, Europe has an advantage if it yet realises it.
It'll increase defence expenses, but it'll gotta buy from the U.S. anytime soon. If she were smart, she would effort to outrun the competition by committing to a long-term arms acquisition program from the US. Let's say 1 trillion dollars (about PLN 4 trillion) in 10 years — a deal that even Trump could not refuse. Let's call it the Trump Democracy defence Program, or whatever, to appeal to his massive ego. most likely Trump could not refuse to make many jobs in the United States. This would let Europe to address the short-term gap in defence production, giving it time to reorient the economy and industry.
I know that in the long word there is much talk about "the reverse Nixon", that is, the US agreement with Russia against China. This seems to be an absurd long-term choice of the United States, pushing distant the European economy worth 27 trillion dollars (108 trillion PLN) for the Russian economy worth 2 trillion dollars (8 trillion PLN).
Europe will put its defence manufacture in order in the average word and will then be able to supply unrivalled support to the US in helping to counter threats in the military industry. Imagine that Europe spends 4 percent of the 27 trillion dollars defending in a decade, or 1.1 trillion dollars (PLN 4.4 trillion) — half of Russian GDP. Even by moving to a full war economy, Russia cannot offer this US against China. And Europe can.
JUSTIN TALLIS / PAPIn the image from the top left: Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, European Council president Antonio Costa, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, French president Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenski and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the summit of European leaders on the situation in Ukraine in Lancaster House, London, United Kingdom, 2 March 2025.
The Alliance of Europe with Turkey
It was besides encouraging to meet Turkey at the Lancaster summit on the weekend. Turkey with the 800-thousandth land army is the only power in European NATO that can deploy tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of troops in the field in Ukraine. Turkey besides has production capacity that can aid bridge European gaps in military industrial production. But Turkey wants something in return — technology exchange, access to finance and markets — a fresh customs union with the EU and deeper trade relations with Britain. These are easy to accomplish — low - hanging fruit.
Turkey is not an ally of Russia. She is upset about Russia's triumph in Ukraine and its dominance over the Black Sea and its surroundings.. Europe must scope out to Turkey.
Fourthly, Britain has returned to Europe. She was somewhat unconsciously at the centre of attention during weekend peace talks. Sir Keir Starmer ‘Charmer Starmer’ He played a superb function over the past weekend and demonstrated his cunning in conversations with the US, Europe and Ukraine. British first-class diplomacy unfortunately lacked a brexit in Europe, but Britain has now realized that if it wants a safe Europe, it must add something to itself. We're good at it.
Fifth,The events in the Oval Office, I believe, revealed to the planet who is the aggressor and who is the victim. Zelenski stood up for a grey man — imagine that after Ukraine lost hundreds of thousands of dead, wounded, raped and kidnapped by Russia, she was asked to say "thank you" to the United States. Indeed, as CNN later revealed, Zelenski has already 94 times publically thanked the US. What do the United States want? Kissing Trump's ringing in position for four? The Global South, I believe, will now ally with Ukraine.
Six, If I was in Beijing, I'd be worried about events in Washington. — Now it is clear that the US wants to ally with Russia against China. I think China should make more friends in Europe now. Europe should reciprocate, show the US that it has another options.
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