You gotta admit, Americans can surprise. The first surprise was prepared by the planet very early this year. As early as January 2, at 4:20 p.m., local helicopters of Delta Force units departed with Venezuelan president-dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores to the United States.
The operation was almost immediately hailed with the large success of both the Americans and Donald Trump himself. It is hard to be surprised, but in little than a fewer hours an unfavorable man was captured A president from his own residence without losing 1 soldier. It is known who could learn to carry out specified “special military operations”. However, putting aside apparent malice, it is worth asking yourself what geopolitical effects the events presented will have and how the future of Venezuela and its people will continue.
It is hard to get a better expert in this field from Prof. Katarzyna Dembich from the Institute of Iberian Studies and Ibero-American University of Warsaw.
Professor, starting briefly with the surgery itself. Do you think that the arrest of a dictator is simply a success of American peculiar forces, or is it proof that there has been treason and silent consent to this movement?
It is besides a consequence of the cooperation of 1 or more people around Nicolás Maduro, who are part of this regime. This opinion is supported by information appearing in the US and European press, but is besides confirmed by Western military experts associated with the functioning of safety services. specified a precise and fast impact would not be possible without an "ear and eyes" of individual inside Caracas. Diplomatic talks have been held between the 2 countries, at different levels, but we do not know at what point and who agreed to cooperate, whether it is individual in the military or alternatively political (civil) background. The number of Cubans who died besides confirms what Nicolás Maduro personally denied for years, or the presence of Cuban safety services in Venezuela.
Nikolás Maduro has already heard allegations of narcotics and moving a crime group. On the another hand, the word "oil" has already been changed in all possible way in the context of Venezuela, which has the largest proven deposits in the world. What was the real reason for the surgery?
This operation is the consequence of a "new" U.S. policy towards Latin American countries, which is besides shaped for interior needs. Donald Trump needs to show his own society that he achieves success and pursues the goals of the MAGA movement –Make America large Again, while restoring the old order, refreshing the Monroe Doctrine, in the Western Hemisphere. U.S. imperialism is present all the time in the consciousness of Latin American residents, hence opposition and criticism against US actions on the left as well as in average circles of the Latin American right. This panorama is more complex due to the fact that fresh outlets and fresh areas of natural materials are needed in order to "make America large for New" specified an area is Venezuela rich not only in oil with exceptional properties, but besides in iron ore, boxites (from which aluminum is obtained), gold and another metals. At the same time, it is simply a water-rich area and, consequently, hydroelectric energy, in its area is 1 of the largest hydroelectric plants in Latin America (Simon Bolivar besides called Guri), located on the Caroni River. It is simply a country with a advanced biodiversity and strategical position. This is the alleged door to the Caribbean Sea and South America.
I guess the most crucial question right now is, who's gonna proceed to rule? We woke up in a reality where Venezuela has de facto 3 leaders. Donald Trump, who wants to manage the country, Delcy Rodríguez, serving as the acting president of the anointing chavists, and Edmundo González Urrutia, who has a democratic social mandate. Will officials and military hazard moving to the Democratic side, or will they dig into Rodríguez from fear?
I would not operate in the categories of "fear", alternatively the desire to stay in power and keep control of the country by the Venezuelan Armed Forces-FAND. The ideological issues in this anti-imperialism are equally important. In the past of the 20th and latest centuries, in Venezuela (and another countries of the region), the army played a very crucial role. It besides seems to me that no of the parties in this conflict care about destabilising the country, with an area of nearly a million square kilometres. Currently, the abolition of the government as a full would lead to civilian war, an increase in the function of paramilitary groups, organized crime and guerillas in border areas, with Colombia and Brazil. In the case of Venezuela, a transformation process is needed, not an immediate break with the old order.
Beijing "inflated" billions into Venezuela. Today, the United States controls oil infrastructure. Do you think that the failure of Venezuela as an ally in this part of the planet will affect the revision of the Chinese strategy in Latin America and whether Monroe's doctrine in the release of Donald Trump can make serious implications for Taiwan and Ukraine?
Surely the U.S.'s actions affect the world's power system. Question: how will this arrangement last? Is it just a temporary deviation or a permanent change? If we are faced with a permanent change, the position of each of these countries by the Lord, as well as the individual regions, including Africa, will change. possibly China will strengthen its position in Africa.
In the 1960s, Venezuela had a advanced GDP per capita position in the world. Can oil truly be a second-largest flywheel of the economy, or the cost of its extraction and the tremendous debts will make the country an economical ruin for decades?
If the script that president Trump is presenting to us is fulfilled, it will not be a good script for Venezuela. due to the fact that it does not presume an economical transformation, but only a deep dependence of Venezuela on the US economy. In this script Venezuela will proceed to be an exporter of natural materials and an importer of processed goods. This is not conducive to the modernisation of the country's economy. Venezuela's problem is the deficiency of developed agriculture. Venezuela imports agricultural products, including as basic as maize, rice and beef, which could successfully produce.
Donald Trump has already threatened further interventions by Colombia and Mexico. How does the future of the region lie ahead of us, or is it not the end of the drug fight?
Certainly, the fight against drugs has never been a precedence of the United States, or alternatively 1 of the arguments for taking armed action and maintaining control over a given territory, including maintaining influence in Latin America. Donald Trump pardoned erstwhile Honduras president Juan Hernandez, sentenced to 45 years in prison in the United States for drug smuggling to the United States. Even the Colombia Plan, in which US implementation pumped around $10 billion over the period 2000-2015 did not scope its intended goal, namely reducing coke production in Colombia. I think that individual extraterritorial actions against drug smuggling will be carried out by the US. Ecuador is an example of this, where US military units operate under bilateral agreements. The current Ecuadorian government, with president Noboa at the head, favours and supports US action in Latin America.
Jakub Kwiatkowski spoke.
