Middle East: war without a way out, stakes rising

Iran responds asymmetrically by continuing Israel's rocket fire. On Tuesday morning, further impacts were reported – according to preliminary information utilizing cluster ammunition, indicating an effort to increase the impact of the fire with a limited number of missiles.

Special operation and hazard of escalation

One of the most spectacular episodes of fresh days was the rescue operation of a two-man crew shot down over Iran an American F-15 fighter. According to the available information, the action was a deep peculiar operation carried out in the territory of the opponent and at advanced risk. Unmanned and satellite reconnaissance, intelligence support, and a component of peculiar forces that took up airmen – 1 comparatively rapidly after catapulting, the another only after respective decades of hiding in an area controlled by Iranian forces.

From an operational point of view, this event is broader than the incident: it confirms the ability and willingness of the US to conduct personnel recovery operations (CSAR) deep in the territory of the opponent. At the same time, this kind of action, due to the hazard scale and possible political consequences in case of failure, increases the likelihood of uncontrolled escalation.

Main force lever

The Ormuz Strait remains a key component of the conflict. Iran continues to treat it as the most crucial bargaining card, limiting the movement of tankers and signalling readiness for its further blockade.

In consequence the administration Donald Trump put Tehran ultimatum on the restoration of freedom of navigation by Ormuz. Originally, it was 48-hour, but was later moved respective times; the current expiry date falls on Tuesday night of American time.

This is accompanied by an highly harsh rhetoric at times. Trump announced that if Iran did not step down, it would "destroy the full country very quickly" and that the US impact would include key state infrastructure. These statements – clearly different from diplomatic communication standards – should be read as an component of maximising pressure, but besides a signal that Washington allows further escalation.

Iran rejected the ultimatum, recognizing them as an effort to extort political and violation of its sovereignty. The authorities in Tehran stress that the possible unlocking of the Strait can only take place within a broader agreement, including the issue of sanctions and regional security. At the same time, a "strong and broad" consequence was announced in the case of attempts to force shipping.

In practice, this means maintaining the current state of tension: reduced shipping, expanding military presence in the region and high-risk incidents that may become a trigger for further escalation. From an operational perspective, therefore, Ormuz remains not only the narrow throat of global energy trade, but besides the most likely place for direct confrontation of US and Iran forces.

Diplomacy and uncertainty of power

At political level, the last days have been marked by intense but ineffective attempts at mediation. Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt proposed a 45-day ceasefire (the alleged Islamabad Accord) to make space for further negotiations. However, Iran has rejected this proposal in its present form, presenting its own much broader plan to end the war, including the abolition of sanctions and the resolution of regional disputes. Washington considered this consequence to be ‘insufficient’, sustaining the ultimatum and the threat of further escalation. In practice, this means going back to a known pattern: talks are being conducted, but neither organization is prepared to make concessions that could bring the conflict to an end.

An additional origin that complicates the situation is uncertainty about the Tehran decision centre itself. There are conflicting reports of Mojtaba Chamenei's wellness condition, which after his father's death took over the real power. any sources propose that his ability to exercise control may be limited, which increases the hazard of dissipating the decision-making process and strengthening the function of force structures, including the muslim Revolution defender Corps. From an analytical position this means greater unpredictability of decisions and additional difficulties in conducting negotiations – due to the fact that even a possible political agreement may not translate straight into state apparatus.

Russian trace, global effect

Against this background, the global dimension of the conflict is besides becoming clearer. The reports of Russia's intelligence transfer to Iran, including possible Israeli targets, indicate Russia's deepening commitment to Tehran. Although the scale and nature of this support remains not full clear, its direction alone means further internationalisation of the conflict and increases the hazard of its extension outside the mediate East region. In practice, we are dealing with a situation where war ceases to be only a clash between the USA and Israel-Iran and begins to enter into a wider rivalry of powers.

The consequences of this process are besides evident in the economy. Tensions around the Strait of Ormuz – through which about 1 5th of planet oil trade flows – straight translate into natural materials markets. In fresh days, Brent's oil prices have exceeded $110 per barrel, periodically approaching as much as $120, and the volatility of quotations is clearly expanding with any information about subsequent incidents in the region.

For the financial markets, this means the return of advanced "prime for geopolitical risk" and for countries importing natural materials, real and fast-growing economical costs. As a result, all 3 dimensions – diplomatic, military and economical – begin to drive each other. deficiency of advancement in talks increases the importance of military pressure, and this translates into economical tensions, which in turn increase the overall rate of conflict. This feedback makes any subsequent decision – whether it falls in Washington, Tehran or Moscow – with possible going far beyond the battlefield.