These elections play a fundamental function from the point of view of Europe today. Although we are already beginning to spread a fresh map of war, we must not forget that the war is inactive going on. Not just the 1 in Ukraine. The conflict of Bastion Budapest counts too, and this 1 trembles in jobs. And with it, Putin, Trump, Orban and the full east anti-democratic arrangement tremble.
The beautiful Hungarian capital changed its character. However, Budapest did not lose its magnificent historical buildings, it did not undergo any armed effort to destroy. Budapest has become the victim of a violent and increasing illness that digests Europe. This illness is populism. The city which Orban has turned into a luxury hotel for criminals from Sovereign Poland, however, faces a chance to break out of the eye of populism. April elections will find not only the future of this country, but the full political strategy in Europe and worldwide. The fresh geopolitical scene, which will arise after the end of the war in Ukraine, will depend on the circulation of cases in Hungary. Ukraine and Europe request democratic Hungary. Putin and Trump request Orban.
Victor Orban has ruled since 2010. He managed at that time to set all the tools and institutions of the state ,,,under himself”. The Hungarian administration was guided by a clear goal to carry out the simple task of keeping Fidesz in power. Whatever it takes. specified a play had its intended effect. The full state device began to be the foundation of Orban's power. The unprecedented takeover of the media marketplace and its saturation with propaganda, the spread of democratic foundations and institutions to safeguard the justice system, the establishment of a verbal war on the European Union, and the yet bringing about a immense economical crisis. It's the work of 16 years of Orban in power.
However, the last fewer months have opened a window of large change. So far, Fidesz had reached out in election battles after nearly 60% of the vote, which translated into a constitutional majority. The organization could do anything. Orban, however, overestimated the financial capacity of the state. Hungary, as a non-liberal Christian democracy, as an ideological monster of Orban, became a financial bankruptcy. safety measures to keep Fidesz in power may prove defenseless against galloping inflation, lethal interest rates or the demographic and agricultural crisis.
But before we exclaim "Orban, the economy of fools!" we should carefully analyse the results of pre-election research. Although TISZA, a pro-European coalition setting itself up as the main rival of the Conservatives of Fidesz, yet gained the advantage in last year's polls, it is not apparent that it took power.
The current electoral campaign, which is de facto The election conflict for Hungary's place on the political map of the planet is simply a very circumstantial campaign. The 2 main parties have an electorate so different that they have stopped convincing voters, “unconvinced” or at present not advocating for any party. The game is about mobilizing the already existing electorate. Due to the deficiency of flows between these parties, the run mainly consists of emphasizing the unquestionably crucial importance of these elections, publicising the another side and reaching out to the voters determined but not temporarily curious in politics. In specified a situation Fidesz has a powerful advantage in the form of a monopolistic media market, which he managed to dominate. Getting to the voters is not a large challenge for them, and it began to translate into poll results. Orban led at the turn of January and February to align himself with TISH and it begins to look like a unchangeable trend. Against all this, we should see 1 plus of the full situation. The organization of the Prime Minister of Hungary for this minute balances at the border of the average majority in parliament. There is so absolutely no question of gaining the constitutional majority. Therefore, Orban's position will in a way collapse. This means more or little that the rules of the game will no longer be able to change. It's a very crucial restriction.
Orban's minimum triumph may paradoxically be the best script for the Democratic coalition. In specified a situation, they do not take over power at the minute of the top ruin. A major problem with the functioning of populist parties is the ‘jojojo effect’. Bringing the state to a consecutive line after sixteen years of publishing seems hard and must be related to the tightening of the belt, possibly following Balcerowicz's plan. In specified a situation, the tilting of the pendulum could happen very quickly.
These elections play a fundamental function from the point of view of Europe today. Although we are already beginning to spread a fresh map of war, we must not forget that the war is inactive going on. Not just the 1 in Ukraine. The conflict of Bastion Budapest counts too, and this 1 trembles in jobs. And with it, Putin, Trump, Orban and the full east anti-democratic arrangement tremble.
