Mountain Karabach (GK) is simply a land located in the southeastern part of the tiny Caucasus. It stimulates the interest of many political actors, especially Armenia and Azerbaijan. Due to its location, it is besides within the interest of the Russian Federation (FR). Russia as the leader of the Caucasus is concentrated on maintaining its dominance in the region. However, at the time of the war in Ukraine, the issue of the Caribbean conflict fell to the background, which the author of the following article considers a defeat of Russian diplomacy.
Objective of this the article is proofthat actions diplomacy Federation Russian in Mountain Karabach in the era of war in Ukraine is characterized by negligence and is an example of the defeat of its abroad policy. To introduce the The subject will be explicitly discussed in the first part and interests will be characterised in the second part Russia in the South Caucasus region, which is straight related to her interest in Mountain Karabach. W the last part will be described by the Russian Federation's abroad policy against the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh both during the beginning of the conflict as well as in 2023 year.
Conflict course
The roots of the conflict date back to the early 1920s. Then the land was transferred au Soviets as an autonomous region of russian Azerbaijan. This occurred despite the fact that Mountain Karabach was 94% forlived through the Armenian population.
The armed conflict broke out in 1988 as a consequence of a request au Mountain-Karabaski Autonomous Area (GKOA) joining Armenian Socialist russian Republic. However, both Azerbaijan, how to and the authorities of the Union of Socialist Republics Soviet (USSR) did not accept GKOA claims. That decision was motivated by Article. 78 Constitution USSR, according to which, to join another russian republic, given autonomous circuit, He had to get the republic's approval., It belonged to. As a consequence of an increase in tension between both cultural groups occurred au clash in Baku in January 1990. USSR responded to these events by sending There. their troops, which led to many casualties among civilians.
After the collapse of the Union of russian Socialist Republics Azerbaijan stood to become an independent state 30 August 1991. Announced at the time changeau status of Mountain Karabach, receiving au autonomy. W answerThis is simply a fact Parliament Mountain Karabach 10 December 1991 atit was a resolution in which he declared that Mountain Karabach had gained independency In 1992 yearwhat left recognised by Armenia. With the withdrawal of Russian military forces from Azerbaijan, Armenians on September 24, 1991 began action to destruct the presence of Azerbaijani in the mountainous Karabach. Armenian insurgents yet drove Azerbaijan troops out of disputed areas and adjacent lands belonging to Azerbaijan. W 1992 Minsk safety Organisation Group and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), formerly known as the safety Conferencecountries and Cooperation in Europe – CBWE, She initiated peace talks. 5 May 1994 year the Bishkek Protocol was signed, which was an agreement o fire interruption.
Despite authoritative global acceptance, That the Caribbean conflict was frozen, armed incidents at the border continued. Therefore, the better word was to call him to the then editiona low strength conflict. W further efforts to advance the peace process have been carried out internationally.
The first major unrest occurred in late June 2003 year. Along the delimitation line occurred series incidents (fire exchange, hostage kidnapping), In which respective Azerbaijani soldiers were killed. Then in lu2004 during courses under the programme NATO Partnership for Peace in Budapest, happened to kill the student from Armenia by Azerbaijani ofiskin Ramila Safarova. Since then quantity incidents between Citizens Armenia and Azerbaijan has begun to increase. On the the fact was peculiarly affected by the subsequent pardon of the abovementioned officer by the president of Azerbaijan.
The ceasefire breach occurred on April 2, 2016 and lasted 4 days, That's why it's called conflict. ‘The 4 Day War“ Army Azerbaijani rozpapart of an offensive to territories occupied by Armenian forces from 2 directions – northern east and south east. Baku sustainedthat it was a consequence to firing on Azerbaijani civilian facilities au Armenian. Jedmost likely it was an effort to interrupt or test the Armenian defence line (but alternatively not a lightning war having on purpose Karabach reflection).W The consequence of the four-day offensive, the Azers somewhat corrected the front line in their favor. Thanks again mediation Russia on 5 April both parties expressed consent to conclude a ceasefire agreement.
Relative peace intertwined with incidents au next 4 years, until 27 September 2020, there was a repeated breach of the agreement and the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Despite trials mediation the conflict lasted for 44 days. The war ended with Azerbaijan's military success, who regained control of his territories. November 9, 2020 a ceasefire agreement was signed in connection with the mediation of the Russian president Vladimir Putin. 10 November 2020 Russia announced the end of the conflict in Mountain Karabach. Agreement Armenia was obliged au leaving Kalbadjar territory until November 25, 2020, and Lachin territory until 1 December 2020 year. It was decided, that the connection between Mountain Karabach and Armenia should run a corridor Lachin and avoid the city of Shusha, which will be controlled by peacekeepers Federation Russian.
The terms of the agreement did not correspond to the Armenians and so carried out they large-scale protests against Prime Minister Nikola's government Feedynate. 11 January 2021 of the year Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia met in Moswine, to clarify the details of the agreement. Despite the announcement by the president Putin of this, that conflict resolved, The future of Mountain Karabach continued to be uncertain.
Tension flared again 24 March 2022, when Azerbaijani forcesJański entered the village of Farruch. By Armenian parties had an act aggression, According to Azerska, "accuration of positions and places of dislocation“. By Azerbaijan has not been utilized Strength, however, the authorities of Mount Karabach reported place. Mediation The station command has taken place.ed in the Russian quota conflict area Strength Peaceful (The escalation took place in the area of their responsibility), there have besides been telephone calls between the Minister of Defence Russia Sergei Szojgu and his counterparts from Azerbaijan and Armenia. 27 March Russian Ministry of Defence reported o control situation and withdrawal of Azerbaijani troops.
Another incidental occurred on August 3, 2022. There's been a firefight., In which Azerbaijani was killed soldier, and then under AzerbaijaniTwo dead. soldiers Republic of Mountain Karabach. W next the days continued to be shelled, but their strength gradually declined: August 4 Azerbaijani positions were to be shot 12 times, and 7 August 10 (the Armenian side – both Yerevan and and separatists – She denied, that led the fire)14. At night au 12 for 13 September occurred another voltage. On border Armenia and Azerbaijan was fighting again, and Azerbaijani troops gunfire Positions of the Armenian. While inactive fighting, the Armenian Council Security has taken decision making a formal request for assistance to authorities Russia and the Collective safety Agreement Organisation. Armenian Prime Minister interviewed Presidents Russia and France and Secretary United States. Russia did not have any real action, only Ministry of abroad Affairs FR called on the parties to refrainmania from further escalation voltage.
W December 2022 performed locking the railway corridor. It was established by Azerbaijani ‘environmental activists, requesting consent to Caribbean monitoring fold gold and copper and molybdenum, which are to be robbed explosionvanes. Russia initially did not take any action against the blockade. Prime Minister Armenia proposed Federation Russian to address the Council SafetyUN, to conduct Mountain Karabach Mission Peaceful. Just in mid-January 2023 Minister for abroad Affairs FR Sergei Lavrow interviewed his Azerbaijani counterpart, during which the Prime Minister of Azerbaijan dismissed accusations of roadblocking and causing a humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh.
To A breakthrough in the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on GK took place in May 2023. On 22 May at the gathering of the ultimate Eurasian economical Council in MoscowPrime Minister Armenia Nickel Passionates President Azerbaijan Ilham Alijiev announced, that Mountain Karabach was declared a territory of AzerbaijanJanu. Condition The GK territory was recognised as part of Azerbaijan be forcertainty of safety of the Armenian population inhabiting the area. On early September 2023 Prime Minister of Armenia accused Azerbaijan of gathering troops close the Armenian-Azerbian border and preparing “military provocation” However, despite the tension,, On 9 September an agreement was reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which afraid the unlocking of the terminal corridor. She was It's quiet before the storm., because 19 September AzerThe bear has begun ‘Anti-terrorist operation” in Nagorno-Karabakh, As a result, GK forces were broken. This led to the actual dismantling of the structures of this pair of states, which were formally to be confirmed by his authorities, announcing on 28 September his self-solution on the day 1 January 2024. Over 100 thousands. Armenians left the territory of Mountain Karabach and moved to Armenia for fear of cultural cleansing. The first mission to GK in 30 years UN, whose conclusions were limited in value (e.g. not statements)damage to civilian infrastructure or facts of force against civilians was reported after ceasefire), as she arrived after the evacuation, she stayed at the site shortko and visited the tiny number places. Armenia also submitted on Azerbaijan complaint to global Court Justice o fracture rights Ora name in Mountain Karabach.
Two weeks after GK was seized by the Azerbaijani forces, the president of the European Council Charles met Michela, Chancellor Germany Olaf Scholz and French president Emmanuel Macron with Prime Minister of Armenia Nickel Pashinate, which encouraged the West to impose sanctions on Azerbaijan. president Azerbaijan did not appear at this meeting, Because he thought the West was anti-Aserbian. Despite the authorities of Armenia changed rhetoric in mid-October. On October 17, 2023, Prime Minister Paszynian appeared in Parliament stressed, that the condition for further improvement of its state is to regulate rapidly relationships with neighbours, including the establishment of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. 26 October besides said that he considered, that in “the closest months” could lead to a peace treaty and relations diplomatic with Azerbaijan.
Place of South Caucasus and so besides of Mountain Karabach in geopolitical plans of the Russian Federation
After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the failure of power au Iran, Russia has been a major actor in the South Caucasus since the 18th century. During the operation of the russian Union in the territory of the republics was to a number of demographic changes that proceed to find the current geopolitical situation of the region. Fall USSR only confirmed previously created conflicts.
Union of russian Socialist Republics during its operation held the economical power, and political in the South Caucasus. Authority This ended with au his fall. Jedna rod how Vladimir Putin was President Russia In 2000 year and began to implement a centralist policy conducive to Russian interests, Russia has returned au ‘great game” in the region. The Caucasus region is crucial to the FederRussian at least four Reasons:
After first, Russia treats this area as its sphere of influence, of which nonemay not resign. Withdrawal from demonstrating its presence in the Caucasus region, It would consequence in an open invasion of the territory of another actors equally powerfully curious in influences in this space. For example, Western countries, Pact North Atlantic (NATO), and thus the United States, Turkey afraid is increase their engagement in the Caucasus and Iran. For this reason, the Russian Federation is trying hard to keep its presence in this region, which how to Now. previously mentioned, dating back to the 18th century. W This will fuel cultural conflicts and play the function of a afraid peacemaker through diverse policiesForeign and economical ticks in this area.
Second, of fear of this, that conflicts in the region, crises in Mountain Karabach, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, could possibly escalate. Crisis in Mountain Karabach, It's kind of a ticking bomb that was with the uporem multiple times frozen. Possible transfer of conflict to further areas Despite the low probability, no is small, so also control of this region is for Russia so important.
After third, nonsubjective Moscow is inclusion the full South Caucasus and first of all Azerbaijan – to Russian integration formats. Russia would then gain full control of the region and prevent its future integration with the European Union. Therefore, Russia carefully tried to incarnate in 2016-2017 Azerbaijan to the Eurasian economical Union.
Fourth, Middle east proximity as well as fresh crises in Syria and Iraq, have a crucial impact on the region. Since the announcement au United States The fight against terrorism Russia is active in the fight against extremist groups. This has become peculiarly evident, since the attention of the muslim State to the Caucasus region.
The above-mentioned reasons apply whole The area of the Caucasus, however, influences individual parts This region. Even so, that Mountain Karabach is the bone of disagreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia is successful behind the scenes, she oversaw this conflict. utilized to This Your policy foreign, which it adapted to the events taking place.
Foreign policy of the Russian Federation against the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh According to Wojciech Górecki can be distinguished three The Russian conflict policy (and indirectly Armenia and Azerbaijan):
The first to had place from the birth of the Karabak movement and making demands to join the GKOA to Armenia to the beginning of the Caribbean War (1987– 1992)26. Then President Russia Boris Jelcin applied pro-Western politics, building close relations with European countries and the United States.Authorities in Moscow at the time they adopted tactics of not engaging in conflict. Despite planted in them by Armenians hope, opposed the changing borders of the republics and actually supported Azerbaijan.
Second, which was from the beginning of the war to the signing of the ceasefire, terminating regular Fights (year 1992-1994). Then Russia almost openly supported the Armenian-Armenian side. The reason for this, was the fall of Mutalibov and access to the power of the People's Front of Azerbaijan (LFA).
Third, from ceasefire to present (1994–)31. This phase started signing a truce that officially ended military activities. W The function of Moscow here is different. No. No. is already present as a organization or associate in a conflict (and does not support any party, Come on. Allied ties link her to Armenia), But as mediator, from the beginning very important, and for any time the most important.
The most crucial component of Russia's abroad policy in the South Caucasus is maintaining dominance in this area. This is done by controlling the energy transmission routes and maintaining the monopoly on energy transmission to Europe. How already mentioned, Russia besides applies a fuelling policy cultural conflicts and The Caribbean conflict is an perfect example of this. W His last installment Russia retained a passive attitude at first despite alliance au Armenia, explaining that the fights were fought in the mountainous Karabach, formalnot being part of Azerbaijan.
Government Russian during the conflict repeatedly intervened in purpose reduction tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Reason This is thisthat Russia wanted to be liable for the diplomatic settlement process, to keep your own interests.. Any engagement of others actors, and especially the United States in process Peaceful could endanger Mediator position Federation Russian. Therefore also She tried to become addicted to two sides of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. W This nonsubjective was balanced in military relations with both parties, selling both Azerbaijan and Armenia Military equipment and weapons.
Since the beginning of the war au Ukraine, Federation Russian picked However, distanced An approach to the Caribbean conflict. His question went further. The plan. It proves it., e.g.. Russian peacekeeper approach to closure the czyczyński corridor referred to in the first part of the article. The Russian Federation focused on carrying out war activities against Ukrainian troops, which forced her to minimize her presence in the Caucasus.
Despite Russian diplomacy in the gathering of Prime Minister of Armenia and president of Azerbaijan in Moscow on 22 May 2023, it did not have a crucial impact on the conducted negotiations. Z Common because of the designation of Mountain Karabach as part of Azerbaijan by Armenia, cannot be regarded as Russia's merit. It is. This effect joint efforts of Armenian and Azerbaijani diplomacy.
A simplification in impact FR on the course of Azerbaijan-Armia talks, indicates reorienting the moderation of the peace process from Moscow to Brussels. Despite erstwhile complications in including the European Union in the Caribbean negotiations currently Brussels assisted by Washingtonconstant becoming a more preferred mediator, than Moscow. Therefore also, in Brussels on 15 July 2023 another year of talks were held to resolve ongoing conflict, where with help European Union and United States Baku and Yerevan, trying to negociate a peace agreement. Russia, so as not to lose current control, proposed to hold a gathering among abroad ministers and to sign a future treaty The peacekeeper was Moscow.
Azerbaijan is not bound by the degree of commitment Russia into the peace process. Especially shows, to comment no: 393/23 of the Ministry of abroad Affairs Azerbaijan to a message by the Ministry of abroad Affairs of the Russian Federation of 15 July 2023, in which it states that the message MFA FR is contrary to the Declaration on Allianceary Interaction between the Republic of Azerbaijan a Russian Federation and statements by Russian Federation president Vladimir Putin supporting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan, in this region of Karabach. Azerbaijani MFA noted, that Azerbaijan was faithful to completing the tripartite declaration signed au Azerbaijani leaders, Armenia and Russia and was involved to regulate relations with Armenia and take applicable steps to velocity up the peace treaty. According to The Azerbaijani Russian side did not guarantee full implementation of the agreement under its commitments and did nothing, to prevent Armenia from supplying military equipment to separatist forcesin the enclave.
It's getting more noticeable. au the fact, that Armenia is increasingly disappointed by Russia's futile negotiations. Despite being formal Allied FR, Moscow does not treat Armenia Fair enough. Armenian Disappointed between other deficiency of assistance from Moscow during the war in 2020 years and subsequent escalations, of the highest, of September 2022, when they were attacked Objectives in the territory of Armenia itself.
Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pasynian started showing a pro-Western turn of his dislike for Moscow's actions in September. W interview with Italian newspapers La Repubblica accused Russia of None ensuring the safety of Armenia in the face of – in his opinion – aggression from neighbouring Azerbaijan in separatist region of the mountainous Karabach and determined Armenia's dependence on Russia ‘strategic error? The Kremlin responded by condemning his nominal ally and declaredthat does not consider the activity Federation Russian South Caucasus Weak and that Russia continues to be considered a safety guarantor in the region. On these statements the Armenian Prime Minister announced, that Armenia ratify Statute Rome establishing the global Criminal Court, That'll get you arrested. President Russia, If he was on the territory of Armenia. In mid-September, Prime Minister Paszynian again criticised Moscow's actions in Nagorno-Karabakh: ‘Peacekeepers Federation The Russian failed in their task. But no I can say, that if the Russian peacekeeping forces hadn't was in Mountain Karabach, the situation would be better now”
When Azerbaijan attacked Mountain Karabach, Russian forces stationed there did not engage in any level of defence of the territory. The Kremlin explained, is that Azerbaijan worked ‘de juure in its territory“, if Armenia recognised the GK as part of Azerbaijan. Also proposed, That peacekeepers FR actively cooperate au each of the conflicts active Party and do everything they can to guarantee the safety of the residents. By press service President The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh reached an agreement between Armenians with GK and Azerbaijan by mediation Russian peacekeeping forces. But misunderstanding became that to these talks no representatives of Armenia were invited. W Relationship au An anti-government protest broke out with the surrender of Mountain Karabach in Yerevan. Although Russia is an ally of Armenia under the ODB (Organization of the Agreement) o Collective Security), Cremovian propaganda portrayed failure Armenia as a ‘natural punishment’ for the alleged betrayal of Russia by Paszynian and desire Getting closer to the West. Prime Minister Nikola Paszynian's chief of law accused Russian media o running a hybrid war against Armenia. Then the Armenian Prime Minister again criticized publically the Kremlin for ineffectiveness ODB. Prime Minister Paszynian and the abroad Minister of Armenia Aarat Mirzojanna besides refused to take part in the summit of the Heads of State in early October Communities Independent States, where by Russian news agencies Russian MFA He was planning on having a conversation.you between representatives Armenia and Azerbaijan. 14 October Armenia finally approved the Rome Statute, what became a circumstantial signal, that Republic of Armenia is already a friendly place for the Russian President, and thus for the Russian Federation.
Summary
Despite numerous tensions on the Armenia line–Azerbaijan since the Azera attack on Mountain Karabach on 19-20 September 2023 the year inactive may to scope peace between the disputed parties. Yerevan has declared stato conclude a peace treaty and establish diplomatic relations au Baku, what can happen in the coming months. Armenia openly shows Disappointed by the Russian Federation and Turn towards Western countries. Increasing more real realising a imagination of complete averting conflict Carabbas. However, no is This Credit for Russiaof years position herself as a mediator in this conflict. W The War on Ukraine notable constant Erosion of position Federation Russian in the South Caucasus, which in the future will be more and more likely. Her war effort, forced her to limit its presence in both conflict areas, during which Russian Strength peace only participated in the evacuation of civilians, and no defending Mountain Karabach, as well as peace talks.
Russia is now trying hard to keep its leadership position and so also performs the steps only to indicate, that he inactive thinks about the South Caucasus, Though he clearly doesn't look in his direction. The credibility of Moscow has clearly fallen in the field of compliance with allied commitments and signed declarations to Armenia, and Azerbaijan, clearly suggesting both countriesthat Russia more Depends to sustain the conflict, alternatively than on effective his solution. The anti-Russian phrase of Armenia is simply a strong example of this, that Moscow failed. so can besides be considered, that the Russian Federation's diplomacy in Nagorno-Karabakh in times of war in Ukraine compared to erstwhile actions, are neglected and are an example of the failure of its abroad policy.
The article was originally published in the quarterly “Think Sovereign. Review of Public Affairs’ No 1(11)/2023.
photo: Polish Press Agency
