Along with a reminder of the character William McKinley, 25th president of the United States (1897-1901), Donald Trump vacuums the old imperialist motives of American power policy, reaching for annexation and business of abroad territories, customs wars and protectionism.
Understanding geopolitics through the prism of rivalry of powers in space, it reminds, on the 1 hand, the glorious era of American conquests (Hawaii, Philippines, Cuba, Guam, Puerto Rico), and on the another hand, it compensates for defeats and humiliations, felt in fresh years in rivalry with China.
Even erstwhile the fresh U.S. administration focuses on restoring the image of the uniqueness of the U.S., it does, however, put it into the old railways of war rivalry. It reaches out to a "force policy", based throughout American past on the expansion of influence, the imposition of control and the usage of dictatorship through coercion. For many observers, there is nothing amazing about this, as from the beginning of the global Pax Americana the U.S. has never knocked the “god of war” off the pedestal of their abroad policy, nor have they given up ruthless economical competition. Militarianism, geoeconomics and mass culture are pillars of their imperial power and global imperialism. Only naive apologists of American protection now fall into the trap of “retory of surprise and surprise”.
However, we would be incorrect if the American power were to be judged only by the ability to enforce listening by military and economical means. In addition to them, the motivational force plays a immense role. As more and more states have begun to show the power aspirations and leadership ambitions, even of a regional extent, the U.S. is faced with a powerful challenge not to be pushed distant from the position of global leader. Therefore, the Trump presidency – regardless of all objections – should be looked at through the prism of large determination, which is to reconstruct America's causal power.
Geopolitics Renaissance
One of the measures that can aid accomplish these objectives is to return to conventional geopolitics. Sometimes it sounds alternatively comical due to the President's rhetorical appearances, causing confusion with listeners, tromtadration and mine parades, but grotesque bravado is included in the full script of the changes Trump and his administration plan to bring about. In the weak political leaders of friendly countries, as in the case of Canada, specified a policy gives emergence to fear and fear, in others embarrassment and decision-making paralysis, as in the leaders of Germany or France, and in the top opponents, as in the case of China and Russia, curiosity and even preventive retaliation.
Among critics, returning to rhetoric from the time of imperialist rivalry draws Trump's suspicion of the willingness to return American democracy to the tracks of authoritarian expansionism. This phenomenon is accompanied by arrogant disregard for the cultural and identity specificities of many regions and nations whose interests are to be subject to the priorities of America. so Ukraine and Taiwan have serious concerns that they will not be abandoned as much as dedicated to strategical regulations on the altar with their existential enemies, i.e. Russia and China.
It is understandable that Trump counts for the power position of his rivals and does not undermine any dimension of the greatness of the Chinese or Russian power, in the name of any phantom allies or protectorates. He realizes that alternatively of ideological confrontation, it is essential to settle according to the importance of interests and position hierarchy. It takes time for a fresh strategy (politics) America matured and saw the light of day. We are presently in a phase of speculation and speculation.
However, it can already be assumed present that in the circles of US power, it has been realised that the number of countries in the planet outside the alleged collective West (NATO and the EU) is decreasing, ready to defend the institutions and values of the global order dominated by America. As more and more countries in the Global South are ready to put economical growth ahead of the practice of democracy and respect for human rights, there is simply a tendency to rationalise their own policies by "above" dictators alternatively than crusades against them.
This corresponds to the concept of global leadership based on transactionality. The essence is to exchange any values on a commercial basis. Trump is not curious in preaching and defending the enigmatic principles that liberals operate. He doesn't care about America's moral authority either. Moralism, by the way, considers it to be unpolitical. He is aware that countries, and thus their leaders, behave cynically and ruthlessly, are not alienated from "double standards" in the assessment of interests and behaviour, and the law treats instrumentally.
Trump is so close to the thought of specified a normative order, which, thanks to its dominant bargaining power and its "hard" persuasion and manipulation skills, is the basis for advantageous transactions. However, erstwhile the bids of the dominant organization are rejected, it is possible, or even necessary, to search the means of force and coercion. Transaction is so understood utilitarianally. It is intended to bring tangible material gains to the stronger side in all areas. Any institution, including alliances, is simply a origin of profit and resource growth, not their loss.
Trumpists do not consider real communities based on values and liberal worldviews. The global game is only about national interests, or more specifically the interests of large corporations and military-industrial and innovative complexes. Relationships are not in themselves valuable. Their importance is determined by the benefits. The paradox of specified reasoning is that the most can be played where there is the largest volume of connections. Hence, allies and partners are the first victims of this approach.
Europe the enemy?
The biggest dizziness is due to a change in the relation between the White home host and European allies within NATO. This is expressed in the commercial approach to the US guarantees of Euroatlantic security, including the threat of a complete withdrawal of US forces from Europe. Many comfort themselves that this is just a bluff from the Trump administration. However, it may have serious consequences in the form of undermining loyalty and allied solidarity.
Trump's squad clearly aims to deprive the European Union of competitive and subjective autonomy. By focusing on political diversification of existing establishments, the Americans like to get along bilaterally with the forces of the extremist right, as has been accused for decades of the same reasons for Russia. These trends are encouraged by interior changes of a sovereign and nationalistic nature in the European Union countries which weaken this structure from the inside. fresh political deals in Germany or France will surely lead to the search for flexible adaptation to a fresh knowing of each other's interests. For example, the reset of the European energy map is not excluded, aimed at balancing the supply of U.S. media from another directions, including Russia.
There can be no illusions about the evolution of the American interior strategy under Trump. Not only due to the bizarre gestures of the 3rd Reich, in the release Elona Muska during the inauguration ceremony, but besides due to the nonsubjective conditions of symbiosis of large capital with political power. The pursuit of profits and unlimited wealth of the American ruling class has been marked by the socio-economic strategy of the United States for decades. But Trump's “golden age” of America is clearly threatening the direct seizure of government institutions by oligarch-multimillionaires, not only those present at the inauguration, as Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos or Mark Zuckerberg.
At the same time, there was a severe dissonance against the actual social base of the victorious Republicans against the background of a gathering of oligarchy representatives and members of the political establishment inside the rotunda on the Capitol. It was a clear manifestation of the “plutocrat” distance and isolation of the fresh crew from supporters and sympathizers, let alone opponents. There are no shortages of comments that specified a demonstration of exclusivity will weigh on social conflicts and chances of realization of megalomaniac announcements by Donald Trump.
There are many indications that capitalist oligarchy, which is an crucial link of the alleged deep state, comes to the surface. This is supported by the self-centered self-love of Trump as the leader of wealthy Americans, but besides the leader of the top power that can hand out cards in a game with the top allies, partners and rivals. His authoritarian thrusts make his inaugurated program focus on the superior powers of the chief of executive power, without directing any demands to legislature or even just his party. With the favored composition of the ultimate Court behind it, it can mostly decompose and disrupt a US-typical separation strategy based on the rule of checks and balances (braking and balancing). This means in practice blurring the border between democratic culture and authoritative decision-making habits.
Trump, taught by the experience of his first presidential term, attaches greater importance to the political subordination of state bureaucracy, forcing authoritative loyalty and suppressing opposition. The slogans about restoring the size of America are clearly targeted at the white population, with emphasis on anti-immigration regulations and social divisions. Liberal America is in deep defense.
Disappointment is the greater, the more Trump was treated as an anomaly. Meanwhile, another clear triumph in the November elections of 2024 showed that the return of the Republican candidate to the highest office was a symptom of a deep social crisis – rising inequality, industrial degradation, rising unemployment, migration crisis and escalation of poverty.
Trump's triumph is not considered an unfortunate accident this time. Interestingly, fewer people are looking for reasons for this triumph in Russian interference, as before. The retrospective look shows how much America has changed and how the social balance of expectations towards utmost polarisation and the anti-democratic return of the right has shifted to face the increasing interior problems and the crisis of global leadership. The consequence was anti-elitarianism, which paradoxically was effectively managed by a typical of the wealthiest oligarchic communities. erstwhile again, the "great deception" of liberal democracy has been confirmed: citizens have the right to vote, but have no real influence on power.
Referring to the messianic mission, Trump evokes a story of America's peculiar "destination" (this time in the exploration of Mars), which can besides be seen as a threat of expansion at the expense of weaker states, not only of direct neighbours. This involves a disrespectful attitude toward respect for the sovereignty of another countries. The U.S., led by Donald Trump, intends to distance itself from the most crucial global institutions, the UN strategy organizations and global law. It is worth recalling that the erstwhile Trump were not saints in this regard. Putting “force above law” America continues its massive reinforcements to increase its ability to deter its possible and real rivals.
Trump's Mystery
We observe 1 of the most intriguing moments in global politics, erstwhile the attention of observers is not so much focused on decisions and actions of global leadership, but on the personality and intentions of its leader. It's not easy to decipher the hidden intentions of power. In the light of past experiences and their prejudices, as well as the unconventional behaviour of Trump, it can be seen as a cunning makiawelist, seeking to strengthen America's position by expanding access to global markets and balancing alliance commitments. This seemingly tough and competitive strategy is intended to service a fresh premise of global players. In total, this is intended to bring proportionate benefits to all parties.
In this strategy, there may be a trap, due to Trump's unpredictability and incalculability, as well as the inconsistency of his imagination of global order, based on the revised obligations of America and the disproportionate benefits for it itself at the expense of the weaker. The essence of the demands of the fresh Washington administration is its belief that many countries have developed at the expense of the United States in fresh decades, hence the request to settle the accounts. For this reason, frightened European politicians are threatening with the "new Yalta", forgetting that the real Yalta Agreement has provided Europe, after all, with respective decades of peace. So it may be worth cooling off the burning heads and heading towards Trump with proposals for cooperative strategies, but not at the price of servillistic loyalty.
Promoting "strategic autonomy" towards Washington's urges is 1 of the answers initiated by French president Emmanuel Macron. Polish politicians of the ruling camp are besides in favour of specified a solution, while demonstrating a peculiar attachment to the "iron alliance" from the US. possibly they are aware that Europe itself will not be able to counter the Chinese-Russian power, or to defend its interests in the trade war between the US and China.
A different strategy is supported by the Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán, to which the leaders of another smaller Central European countries are seconded. It is based on individual trust and transactional arrangement with the president of the United States, without any ideology. any in this strategy find the chance to dare and strengthen utmost right forces in Europe, as the United Right camp in Poland besides hopes. In any case, European politicians are faced with painful discomfort, caused by the collapse of existing legitimacy in an interior and allied dimension.
Presenting the presidency period Joe Bidena In terms of mistake and defeat, Trump's squad shows that war interventionism not so much promotes the strengthening of American hegemony as it provokes opposition from many countries and deepens global anarchism. For this reason, pro-peaceful slogans and conciliation gestures towards Russia, with the appropriate amount of intellectual pressure, may be the starting point for building any modus vivendi. For now, however, all scenarios of developments are possible, including the escalation of the war in Ukraine.
From the Polish point of view, the most clear expectations of the initiative of the fresh American administration on the effective end of the war in Ukraine are the most clear. Apart from respective countries, including Turkey, Hungary and Slovakia, the remainder do not imagine the victorious Ukraine not joining Western structures in a predictable perspective. Meanwhile, Trump does not see it in terms of political imperative.
Ukraine and Trump
He shocks with his statements saying that he does not support this war. He considers it absurd and avoidable, including by the Ukrainian side. This greatly complicates the current communicative about the innocence of the Ukrainian side, and so implies the division of work for calling it. What is even more insulting, Trump seeks to realize Russia's principled position on the merits of defending its safety interests, protecting the Russian-speaking population and access to resources. This has already completely changed the intellectual climate among the acolytes of America.
Looking at the destructive nature of the Trump War with its business experience in acquiring profitable assets, he sees the senseless material and demographic losses of Ukraine. He is besides aware that the ideological justifications for integrating Ukraine into Western structures, including NATO, are incorrect to be in an existing conflict situation with Russia. The costs of specified an undertaking are important, not to mention the difficulties of adapting to fresh rules, rebuilding infrastructure, returning the population, or restoring effective management in post-war conditions.
Trump does not fantasize about democracy in Ukraine, due to the fact that that is not his priority. The most crucial are effective governments and credible authorities, which will base politics on rational calculations, which in a given situation is truly profitable and serves to suspend war activities, with the exception of historically accumulated pretensions towards Russia. In many allies of Ukraine, infected with rusophobia, specified expectations origin rage and helplessness.
Trump's position on ending the war is unfortunately alternatively shortsighted. It collides with the conditions of the Russian side, which demands guarantees from the West for lasting solutions, not a temporary truce. The aim is to destruct the root causes of the conflict, i.e. the breach of balance by Western countries in maintaining common and indivisible security. Trump wants to shift work for the destiny of the peace agreement to European allies. However, these in the present ideological blinding situation have neither political will nor applicable ability to wisely cut the Russian-Ukrainian war knot.
Prof. Stanisław Bielen
photo of wikipedia
Think Poland, No. 5-6 (2-9.02.2025)
