Baltic gambling. Will Russia hit Polish ports? Let's connect the dots.

Something's going on in the Baltic. It's not just 1 message, 1 incidental or 1 policy statement. The point is, if we combine the events of the past weeks, the image that emerges is hard to minimize.

On 10 March 2026, Poland introduces the EP region R130 – new, tighter limits on airspace, officially continuing earlier sharpens. 2 weeks later, Ukrainian drones effectively paralyze Russian ports in the Baltic – Ust-Ługa and Primorsk are hit for the first time in 4 years. Coincidence? Maybe. But clearing civilian skies is besides an perfect veil for drone rallying flying along the edge of NATO airspace. The Ukrainian drone that hit the chimney of the Auvere power plant in Estonia suggests that this edge was not only close – it could have been crossed.

The Kremlin didn't wait long to interpret. Russian politicians officially accused Poland of complicity in attacks. For Moscow it is no longer a question of conjecture – Poland in their communicative has ceased to be a neutral country. This gives Putin a ready-made excuse for a "symmetrical answer", which sounds dangerously all the more so that the targets are obvious. Especially due to the fact that Poland has not condemned attacks on ports in the Baltic, even though it is attacks on civilian infrastructure and deepening the global oil crisis.

Russia doesn't gotta hit Warsaw. 2 points is enough. Naftoport in Gdańsk, through which almost all oil flows present for Polish refineries. And a gas port in Świnoujście, liable for about half of the national gas demand. An attack on both objects would mean an energy knockout in just a fewer twelve hours. The Polish economy would fall into a deep crisis – not metaphorically, but physically. deficiency of oil supply is downtime at refineries, advanced prices and restrictions on the sale of petrol and diesel. Gas shortages are downtime in manufacture and power plants.

This is the consequence of the alleged "diversification" of supply sources over the last 2 decades. Moving distant from our own natural materials – mainly coal for imports of gas from exotic countries (Qatar, USA) and oil from Saudi Arabia to make Russia angry, on which the natural materials can yet be condemned.

Here is simply a question that hurts the most: does individual in Warsaw truly calculate it? due to the fact that Poland 2026 is simply a country with increasing debt, administrative and judicial chaos, hard to hide situation with the NFZ and the government, which has political reasons to direct public attention elsewhere. There is no more grateful script for power in problem than the external threat that explains everything – price increases, fuel shortages, the request to reduce civilian liberties. Putin's communicative is simply a political reset that covers national problems and silences opposition under the umbrella of a state of emergency.

And the US? From the White home comes voices without beating around the bush: if Poland is attacked, “we can talk if we have time to help”. Below is an accurate quote from Marco Rubio:

"If Europe does not let us to usage the bases we cast and finance, to defend them erstwhile we request them, we should close them and retreat our troops from Europe. If they are attacked by Russia, we can talk about whether we have time to aid them.”

The translation from diplomatic to human is brutal – since you did not aid us defend the Persian Gulf, in which you besides have business, we will not rush to defend your Baltic Gulf. Americans will be able to proceed selling their liquefied gas – only not straight to Świnoujście, but through German terminals. With an additional margin for Berlin, which will besides strengthen its energy intermediary position in the region. For Tusk's top ally – rather a deal.

One more component must be added to this image – Ukraine itself. A country in war for 4 years, bled out demographically and economically, increasingly desperate to find ways to change the strategy of forces. The attacks on Russian Baltic ports are not accidental escalation – it is an effort to attract NATO, specifically Poland, to face Russia directly. Ukraine has an apparent interest in this. Poland not necessarily.

Let us add that Russia can copy Iran's thought of war on Israel and the US. alternatively of attacking Israel, Iran attacks Israel's allies – US bases and oil installations in the Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain or United arabian Emirates. Russia, like Iran, can accomplish greater effects by attacking and paralyzing an ally.

Meanwhile, Washington is clearly changing course. Trump does not hide that he prefers to talk to Putin than to wage war by proxy. The United States has mostly achieved its objectives – a negotiated agreement giving the US a share of gross from Ukrainian natural resources deposits is simply a concrete, measurable profit from years of support. Further military engagement is no longer worthwhile for Americans. Ukraine can be gradually left to itself – and look for the last leverage where it can, that is, on the Baltic. In Ukraine, society has had adequate of war, and especially capture by military and sending unprepared, sick men to the front as cannon meat, while elites play discos in Europe. This is no longer a war of the Ukrainian people, this is simply a war of the Zelenski squad – to last and benefit from power due to the fact that as long as there's a war, there's no election.

There is besides another element, which Poland prefers not to talk out about. Nord Stream 2 was blown up in 2022. Russia points to Poland as an accomplice – according to this version, divers competed from the Polish coast. Was Poland active in this? Given that since the beginning of the war Poland has been 1 of Ukraine's most committed protectors – the airport in Rzeszów serves as the main hub for arms and military assistance – this version is not abstract for anyone. The facts substance to the world, and the facts are simple: the pipeline went up, Poland actively supports Ukraine, and now Ukrainian drones paralyze Russian Baltic ports.

No 1 will wait for the results of the investigation. In the eyes of the Kremlin – and not only the Kremlin – the image is already closed. Any Russian retaliation against Polish energy infrastructure would have an iron justification in this narrative. The 1 who fights with the sword dies with the sword.

Poland in this script is simply a convenient tool – engaged adequate to bear the consequences, and tiny adequate not to be intercede for it.

Against this background, the behaviour of any Polish politicians is harmful to pain. erstwhile the United States talks to Moscow, Turkey has been moving business with Russia for years ignoring sanctions, Hungary blocks EU decisions aimed at the Kremlin and Slovakia openly questions the sense of further support for Ukraine – the Polish political class inactive scares Putin like a mantra. Not as part of a real defence strategy, but as a tool for mobilising electorate and jamming national problems.

Everyone around – including our formal allies – gets along with Russia, does business, seeks to leave. Above our heads, without asking us. And Poland is in the communicative of 2022, as if time stopped, and exposes itself to a hazard that no 1 else wants to bear.

It's not politics. That's a sucker.

The question that remains after all is simple and unpleasant: are the Polish authorities consciously playing a game in which our energy safety is at stake and the reward is political endurance in power? Data says what they say. You can justice the remainder yourself.

I wrote about Gasoline in Świnoujście as a possible mark already in 2022:

I besides wrote about the stupid continuation of the war in Ukraine in the context of fuel supply in 2022: