Azerbaijan abolishes transit blockade to Armenia: a step towards lasting peace

On 21 October, president Ilham Alijew, visiting Kazakhstan, announced that Azerbaijan had abolished all restrictions on the transit of goods to Armenia. He besides announced that the alleged Zangezuri Corridor – a way through Armenia linking the essential territory of Azerbaijan with the Nachichevan exclave – could be opened by the end of 2028. He besides stressed the function of president Donald Trump in the normalization of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations, especially in the corridor arrangements (its operation is to be managed by an American company).

Baku's decision marks the end of Armenia's economical blockade established by Azerbaijan in September 1989 in relation to the beginning of the conflict around the mountain Karabach. This decision is of vital symbolic importance and brings about lasting peace between both countries. However, it will only be possible to make full usage of its economical possible erstwhile borders are opened and diplomatic relations are established. The inactive unresolved Azerbaijani-Armenian border remains closed all the time due to the fact that there is no passage and adequate border infrastructure.

Comment

• The Baku decision is of large political importance, but its economical dimension in bilateral relations will be limited in the coming months. In view of the closed borders and the deficiency of infrastructure (border crossing points, access roads) for Armenia, goods will be taken by rail through Georgia from Azerbaijan. It is known that the first cargo thus transported will be cereals from Kazakhstan, as confirmed by the Armenian side. The beginning of specified a way besides increases Armenia's import capacity, allowing it to diversify suppliers, which is crucial in the context of Erwanie's deteriorating relation with Moscow. Russia tightened migration rules, leading to protests by Armenian truck drivers who had to limit the number of courses to that country.

• Following the abolition of restrictions by Azerbaijan, Turkey may decide to do the same., which joined the blockade of Armenia in July 1992 Both states declare their willingness to normalise relations and take action in this direction, as evidenced by Prime Minister Nikola Paszynian's visit to Turkey in June this year.Paszynana's historical visit to Turkey - increasingly urgent standardisation). The Turkish side, supporting Azerbaijan from the beginning of its independence, however, announces that the condition for a formal peace with Armenia is an Armenian-Azerbian agreement (it is possible that Ankara tries to push behind the scenes on Baku to do so as shortly as possible). Aliyev's decision creates a window of chance for Turkey. In this case, the beginning of the border cannot be excluded, as the applicable border infrastructure exists there. Steps towards reducing the isolation of Armenia increase the chances of a corporate policy of normalising relations with the Turkish neighbours of Paszynana for success in the June 2026 parliamentary elections.

• The transit way through Armenia will become part of the alleged Central Corridor, linking China to Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus, and will make it more attractive. While performing in Astana, Aliyev assessed the capacity of the Zangezuri Corridor at 15 million tonnes per year. The beginning of this road will besides increase the regional influences of Turkey, which will gain a land connection with Azerbaijan, and through this country – with Central Asia. Giving management over the way to an American company reconciles Baku's interests – demanding that the merger with Nachichewan should in practice be extraterritorial – and Erwanie, for whom territorial integrity is crucial. The name of this TRIPP task (the Trump way for global Peace and Prosperity) is intended to supply Washington's political "parasol" over the undertaking, which Ankara accepts. It is expected that, with the advancement made in the implementation of the Yerevan project, he will search to reduce the presence and, in time, to retreat Russian border troops from borders with Iran and Turkey (by the end of July 2024, they were already withdrawn from the capital airport Zwartnoc).

• The current relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan can be described as “peace without peace”. The condition for Baku to sign the agreement is to amend the Armenian constitution (in its preamble there is an appeal to the declaration of independence, in which the Mountain Karabach is mentioned). Erevan accepts this, but a referendum is essential to amend the basic law, which requires preparation. However, the agreement was initialled in Washington on 8 August (by the Heads of Diplomacy) and the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and the US signed a peace declaration. There have besides been no armed incidents for many months. Further steps towards standardisation, including advancement in the delimitation and demarcation of the border, are expected.