War changes everything. Ukrainian children became mobile targets for Russian rockets and drones (Made in Iran). The gold trenches on the black earth have been transformed into Europe's largest minefields. Critical infrastructure has been ground in the rubble. Known from the incorrect side, the kiboles turned into steel soldiers whose attacks are irresistible, and the defence unbreakable.
In geopolitics, the war in Ukraine obscured the boundaries between the safe planet and the fighting zone. We were best reminded of the victims in the Wire. Poland got into the war. We're the front desk. We have accepted the largest number of war refugees and the main supply artillery for the fighting Ukrainian army in defence of its freedom runs through Polish territory. The equipment is so much that you can't keep it a secret. This became Poland's global showcase. Writing that war changes everything, I was inaccurate. It did not affect Polish politicians. In front of each other, they accuse each another of who is more pro-European, and who is pro-putin, they study on each other, and this in the Euro-Parliament, and this in front of their own public opinion. They forget who is Russian onuswho's trying to be primus To planet leaders. And erstwhile the typhoon is approaching, there are only 2 exits: evacuation or community care for a safe shelter.
The sterility of political discourse does not aid solve real problems for citizens. Apart from economical issues, the direct effect of the war in Ukraine is to change Polish society from monocultural to multicultural. We have a minimum of 6% to 8% of immigrants. It's not just a sociological problem. The process of penetration of Polish social tissue with Ukrainian will increasingly divide Poles, not only due to fatigue of compassionBut above all, it has an expanding polarity due to its attitude towards war. Poles in this respect will approach the views of their western neighbours. Hence a heated dispute, whose face became 2 right-wing (sic!) journalists: Luke Warzech and Peter Zaremba. This is not a conflict of heart and mind. It is simply a cardinal difference in the effort to redefine what the Polish state is after 24 February 2022. Whether it is expressed briefly by the slogan “winning Ukraine or death” or, on the contrary, utilizing its 5 minutes, the government in Warsaw should effort to nuance diplomacy. Russia's expansion can be answered by 2 utmost and apparent ways. The first is Schmitt's militarism, the second infantile pacifism. "Golden measure" needed. We are a associate of NATO and the EU and we have the resulting obligations and limitations. There are alien but allied armies stationed in our territory. And that's different from the Ukrainians.
Armed actions have their logic and dynamics. On and off the front. For example, at the beginning of the conflict there was a communicative of "bad Putin, poor, manipulated Russian people". After a year of war, despite so many military disasters (besides the successes of occupying almost 20 percent of the neighbour's territories – which seems to escape many commentators), The Russians support their leader in the overwhelming majority. The silent hope for the Kremal coup did not come true. Equally romanticist and idealistic dreams turned out to be a slogan Clausewitz must die in the hearts of politicians. This sentence, logically without a charge, after all, war is simply a nightmare of senseless bloody sufferings of innocents – as he wrote about, for example, in his War Anthropology The dead Louis Stomma – in fact breathes naivety. In global politics, the other is true. Forgot author's rules Wars one more time proved that (as Raymond Aron wrote in his Peace and War between Nations and Think war, Clausewitz) are timeless. War as a tool of politics has returned not only to the cards of technological and public studies, but above all to the awareness of filled Europeans. In the 21st century, the Chinese commander Sun Tsu became fashionable, displacing an old, European and nineteenth-century officer. I have an irresistible feeling that – paraphrased by Toynbee's expression – the moving communicative synthesizes in front of our eyes a reactivated Clausewitz with an oriental kind Art of War Sun Tsu.
You can see it in the Chinese Sea. Beijing has understood that the model of joining the Hong Kong peculiar Administrative Region to the People's Republic of China is unrepeated for Taipei, so it is reaching for a force solution. Whether it's fact or just pressure, we'll find out in the close future. Apparently, Washington is helping Kiev in a limited way, due to the fact that he must consider the request to aid Taiwan and cannot completely strip his magazines. If that's true, it would mean that China without 1 shot is not just a silent partner of Moscow, but a real coalition building a second, unburdening, though only a possible front. This reminds me of the situation of planet War II, erstwhile from all German armies operating on the east front from Murmansk to the Caucasus, there was 1 call for general staff in Vinnytsia: give us 1 battalion, 2 squadrons of aircraft, and we will complete the task. But there were no reserves. Stop. They were, and of course, blocked in France, where the “D” Army Group units were stationed and celebrated the triumph of drowning in blood and in the Atlantic landing under Dieppe. Russia may 1 day rematch itself to China by blocking Japan, defrosting the inactive unfinished conflict over the Kuril Islands erstwhile the time comes.
It's hard to believe this explanation of savings in U.S. logistics aid. Fighting in Ukraine requires both sides to exert themselves on the part of land and air units. Resisting a possible landing in Taiwan will require primarily US Navy action. It sounds much more credible to the public that from the very beginning of the aggression, the administration of president Biden assumed that he would do anything to guarantee that the Russian bear was caught and did not conquer Ukraine, but that there was no atomic conflict at the same time. It is said that from the beginning the price for this was the failure of part of Ukraine. Of course, a careful reader of news services could note the fast and decisive dementias of the Washington administration a fewer days ago stating that Ukraine and Russia had never been proposed specified a solution. As Tsarist diplomat Aleksander Mikhailovich Gorczakov utilized to say: I do not believe in unmented information.
The war in Ukraine not only confirmed Clausewitz's doctrine in global relations. She dusted the universal rules. And so, for example, erstwhile Ukrainian troops conducted a limited counteroffensive utilizing the Russian army's breathing breath, many military experts proclaimed that they had undoubtedly crossed Dnieper and reflected the occupied areas at the hands of Moscow. Evidence was to send untrained, ill-armed recruits, supported by Wagner's group criminals straight to the front, where they became cannon meat. It's an old Russian school. All you gotta do is scope to the memoirs of German staffmen from the time of Operation Barbarossa, who, after Stalin's first gigantic defeats, wrote that erstwhile they break up 1 division of the Red Army, 3 others appear. They were not divisions in the Western sense, as they were badly exterminated, untrained, and unprofessionally commanded. They were no little and had to be broken up by wasting resources and time. Time utilized by the Soviets to decision the perfect Siberian divisions to Moscow.
The war in Ukraine has overthrown myths and cured our view of war. She has already confirmed earlier observations from Iraq about how disastrous it was to leave the armored weapons. She faked the story of east frost. After all, both Russians and Ukrainians are waiting for frost to proceed offensive activities. Just like in run 1661/1662 did the Black Army in the fight against the Moskals. It has been confirmed that fighting Moscow, you always gotta number on time playing in favour of the Kremlin. The Ukrainian Gordian node is highly hard to solve on the way of diplomacy, as Russians without Kiev and Ukraine control in their own eyes to return to Moscow. Ukrainians realize the function played by the legacy of Rusi Kiev in the past of both nations. This intellectual aspect of war is invaluable. I wrote about it in a book A Monomach bite. Conflict between the Republic of Poland and Moscow between 1648 and 1667. Sociological Studies in the Borderland of War, Literature and Politics.
The war in the East has diametrically influenced the geopolitical system. It's hard for me to accept NATO's unity without reservation. surely all of them have submitted to the U.S., but that any have done so out of comprehensibility, and others have done so out of genuine fear of the incalculable from their point of view of the atomic power, though regional. There is no uncertainty that Russia as a state is at the minute the biggest loser (recoming the place of only suffering civilian population in Ukraine) of this conflict. Her global position has fallen below China and India. Doesn't mean his fangs are torn out. The United States reminded allies who the leader of the West was. No serious individual can foretell where this will lead to. Opinions balance from casandric, like this UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, to optimistic talk about the imminent end of the fighting. They're more convinced by the former. Moscow will not voluntarily accept the free Kiev, unless it is beaten and broken internally. The possible distribution of the Russian state would strengthen the Asian player who won the most in this war, due to the fact that he practically took the seat of the USSR on a global chessboard with powerful economical influences in Euroasia, Africa and both Americas. Chinese companies are starting to match British colonial companies. utilizing North Korea, Beijing cleverly evades the economical sanctions imposed against Putin. The Chinese Army is rapidly upgrading, building not only fresh aircraft carriers, but besides aircraft, tanks, rockets etc. Well, in 1241, moving on the tiny steppes of the Mongols, they reached Legnica.
