The Atlantic Council, a think tank subsidised from the US national budget, asked a number of experts to measure the presidential elections in Poland.
Daniel Fried, a diplomat who spent many years in European institutions, erstwhile US Ambassador to Poland from 1997 to 2000, a peculiar U.S. envoy to Guantanamo and associate of the Atlantic Council, answered the question. He felt that Nawrocki "is in a good position to encourage Trump to support Ukraine and European security". He besides stated that the unsuccessful (actually "exaggerated") election in Poland was presented as "fights between democracy and autocracy or between pro-Trumpian and pro-European candidates". The challenge for the fresh president will be to establish appropriate relations with the government of Donald Tusk, and so Nawrocki must consider whether, in the face of the threat from Russia and in order to guarantee the safety of Ukraine and Europe, he should not effort to find a "common language" with the government of Tusk.
Fried adds that "there are crucial grounds for at least any cooperation over organization divisions in Poland to aid Ukraine defy Russian aggression and to this end cooperate with key European allies specified as the UK, France and Germany, as well as with the United States". He besides noted that unlike Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, "Polish nationalists and outgoing president Andrzej Duda mostly support Ukraine and powerfully argue Russian aggression". He besides recalled that at the beginning of 2022 the leader of the PiS organization Jarosław Kaczyński publically broke up with Orbán as he did not support Ukraine and for the PiS the expansion of the armed forces began, which is continued under the regulation of the Tusk coalition. Both political camps support NATO and strong relations with the United States.
However, Nawrocki may have a problem working with the European Union. In the opinion of the erstwhile US Ambassador to Poland, strong cooperation with Brussels should continue, as the EU "is inactive the origin of crucial backing for Polish improvement and is trying to support the expansion of the armed forces in Europe, the nonsubjective which Poles from all sides of the political scene support". Therefore, he adds that the fresh president "will besides gotta halt anti-German rhetoric, common among a large part of the Polish nationalist right". – Nawrocki would do well to (...) cooperate with Germany to counter the threat from Russia facing both countries – he argued.
American politician besides believes that Nawrocki "must find a way to balance strategical and political orders to support Ukraine" in the context of the reluctance of parts of society to proceed generously supporting Ukrainians and Kiev politics.
Aaron Korewa, manager of the Atlantic Council office in Warsaw, which is part of the Europe Center suggests that "Poles have shown their discontent with the current government and political establishment". Nawrocki's exhibition as "outsider" paid off due to the fact that "he managed to attract voters who selected utmost right-wing candidates in the first round, while Trzaskowski failed to mobilise adequate voters who supported Tusk's coalition on 2 October".
– For Europe this may mean that Poland will become more self-centered. At the same time, Tusk has previously signaled that he believes that defeating populism requires addressing any of the problems that drive him. Poland is expected to turn to law on issues specified as migration and the European Green Deal He said.
Korewa pointed out that "Nawrocki was the only candidate to visit U.S. president Donald Trump at the White home and to receive his support", and "In late May, the Conservative Political Action Conference, known as the CPAC, besides organised a rally in Rzeszów, attended by U.S. Secretary of interior safety Kristi Noah". – Nawrocki's people consciously made contact with the US administration. In Poland, the movement, which supports Nawrocki, is very pro-American and pro-Pronate, unlike respective another parties in Europe that advocate conservative nationalism. The optimistic script is that as president Nawrocki will make contact with Trump, preventing any plans to retreat American troops from Poland. At the same time, the Tusk Government will proceed to establish a partnership with another crucial European countries, specified as France and the Nordic and Baltic countries," commented a associate of the Atlantic Council in Warsaw.
Marek Magierowski, erstwhile Ambassador of Poland to the USA and Israel, at the same time analyst of Atlantic Council’s Europe Center and manager of the Polish program strategy at the Freedom Institute in Warsaw, points out that Nawrocki “cannot be fooled by hysterical labels”. He is neither a ‘populist’, nor a ‘aggressive Eurosceptic’, nor a typical of ‘the utmost right’; he is not ‘pro-Putinowski’ or ‘trumpowski’.
– Nawrocki is undoubtedly a staunch conservative who skillfully utilized the nature of broad groups of Polish electorate, who, contrary to European trends, remained – politically, socially and emotionally – attached to the thought of freedom, sovereignty, traditions and Christian values. The candidate supported by the Law and Justice besides mostly exploited the increasing unpopularity of the Tusk government, especially among young voters (Nawrocki won among cohorts of people aged 18 to 29) said Magierowski. He besides pointed out that the erstwhile boxer managed to scope the working and agrarian environment. Magierowski expects to conduct a conservative policy.
Danuta Hübner, a associate of the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center and was the first EU Commissioner, a staunch supporter of federalization and centralization of power in the EU was asked if the fresh president would overcome polarization in our country.
The erstwhile commissioner doubts whether the president who has just been elected. "He understands what is good for Poles in these uncertain times".
The erstwhile left-wing trade commissioner stressed that "polarized society is easy to manipulate and is an easy mark of Russian misinformation". "The biggest challenge for the fresh president" is "understanding the importance of building bridges between Poles". Hübner considers that "the President-elect derives from a political tradition which has a low tendency to search compromise". Furthermore, in her opinion, the fresh president "must support the government in building a democratic Poland where everyone can live".
– Poles request a president who will realize that isolation has never brought any benefits to Poland, that the European Union is our place and that it is crucial that Poland assumes part of the work for Europe. Will the fresh president support European efforts to build its defence capacity and based on the safety of economical competitiveness? Will he work for peace on our continent? "The fresh president will work to keep the unity of the United States and Europe".
Mark Scott, an worker of the Digital Forensic investigation laboratory (DFRLab) Democracy + Tech Initiative under the Atlantic Council Technology Programs was asked about the function of social media in the election. Let us add that DFRLab is an organization that has taken an unsavory place in US past due to its commitment to building a global censorship system. It belongs to the Industrial Complex of Censuria, blamed by a powerful committee of the judiciary in an American congress. It creates tools to combat alleged mis-, mal- and misinformation in the US and worldwide.
Scott was asked what function social media played in the elections in Poland.
His task, "Nawrocki's tiny triumph in the presidential elections in Poland is the latest example of why it is hard to straight link the election consequence in any country with the way voters interact with candidates, political activists and another people on social media".
It suggests that “a large number of hyperparty attacks on social media from both sides occurred before the Sunday vote in Central Europe. There was besides evidence – including the Atlantic Council survey – that abroad governments were trying to influence the results of the vote, but it is "almost impossible to estimation the effectiveness of these efforts, as well as the ongoing intervention of social media companies in order to possibly limit the impact of specified content".
– Given the fierce race, slight changes in voters' behaviour – possibly caused by what people could see in their online channels – could have played a role. But at this stage, it's more of a explanation than a confirmed reality. He said.
Although the expert admitted that the election run conducted on social media is becoming increasingly common in modern democracies, it is hard to estimation its impact.
Source: Atlantic Council.org
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