Why the Democratization of Caracas matters
The modern planet is characterised by a deep interdependency between states. Political crises in distant regions can have real effects in Europe and another parts of the globe. 1 specified case is Venezuela, whose close relations with Russia are of concern in the context of European security.
Since Hugo Chávez took power and later Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela has undergone deep autocratization and has become an crucial ally of Russia in Latin America, meaning that Moscow has gained a strategical foothold in the region that can be utilized to task strength and influence on the western hemisphere. Russia's cooperation with Venezuela covers both military and economical issues. Moscow provides Caracas weapons, military equipment and provides intelligence and strategical advice. Reports of ammunition factories and the presence of Wagner Group mercenaries show that despite sanctions Russia inactive maintains its ability to support Venezuelan government in military activities. This is not a local problem: Venezuela's stableness and orientation affect global security, including Europe. Why? due to the fact that autocratic states in an alliance with Russia act in a way that increases the threat to the continent. Russia's aggression towards Ukraine shows that Moscow is ready to usage military force against its neighbours. Having a friendly country with weapons and military know-how in another hemisphere gives Russia the chance to test technology, train staff and keep global coverage, expanding the hazard to European countries. The demographicisation of Venezuela could importantly change this situation. A democratically ruled state is little likely to operate as a front for actions threatening Europe. unchangeable and open institutions in Caracas would limit the space for Russian influence, which would in turn weaken Moscow's position in the region and reduce its ability to exert force on the global forum. The benefits of the democratisation of Venezuela are not limited to military security. Venezuela could re-enter regional economical structures specified as Mercosur, and in the position of working with the European Union under the EU-Mercosur agreement. This would open fresh markets for European companies and reduce Europe's dependence on authoritarian natural materials suppliers, including oil. unchangeable Venezuela would besides mean the anticipation of greater energy diversification and reducing the continent's strategical vulnerability to external pressures.
