As the war in Ukraine drags on, a increasing communicative in certain western circles suggests that exhaustion will yet force Kyiv to the negotiating table. The logic follows that as the West’s political will wanes, and military support slows, Ukraine, starved of resources, will be compelled to accept whatever terms Russia dictates. specified assumptions, however, miss the reality on the ground. Ukraine has proven over the past 2 years that it will not yield. The country’s sheer size, its fierce resolve, and its remarkable ability to innovate under utmost duress have transformed it into Europe’s premier land power. The question is no longer whether Ukraine can survive, but how the West, and especially the US, will choose to engage it.
A nation transformed by war
In just under 2 years fighting a genocidal invader, Ukraine has emerged as 1 of Europe’s most capable military powers. Far from being a fragile, dependent state, Ukraine now possesses 1 of the most battle-hardened and innovative land forces on the continent, and surely the largest. The Ukrainian military has absorbed and adapted to western weapons and tactics, and expanded an already robust indigenous defence manufacture that is now capable of producing drones, missiles and armoured vehicles in volume. It has besides developed expertise in asymmetrical warfare, mastering fresh technologies and concepts of operation that have inflicted grievous losses on invading Russian forces.
Ukraine has not just survived. It has shown its teeth and an uncanny capacity for adaptability and ingenuity in a conflict of historical scale and intensity. Outnumbered and outgunned, the Ukrainian armed forces have nevertheless outperformed the Russian military consistently. And they have done so while creating fresh warfighting doctrines on the fly, with an unusual assortment of kit, and aligning themselves more closely with NATO standards than many Alliance members themselves. The velocity with which Ukraine has integrated a multitude of weapon types and tactics is something many European armies could only aspire to achieve.
Historic miscalculation
The actual issue now is not whether Ukraine can last without western support, but whether it will stay a partner of the West, peculiarly the United States. While Europe, despite its limitations, is looking to step up, it is the US that remains the eventual deciding factor. The increasing ambivalence in Washington toward Ukraine’s plight is not just a tactical mistake; it is simply a historical miscalculation.
Short of either full Ukrainian capitulation or Russian collapse — neither of which look peculiarly likely — Ukraine will appear from this war challenged but mostly territorially intact, fiercely anti-Russia, and in possession of Europe’s largest and most lethal land force. If it has western backing, it will become a powerful, battle-tested ally, profoundly integrated into the western safety architecture. But if forced to fight alone – abandoned by the US and left to its own devices – Ukraine will inactive survive, but carrying a sense of betrayal from the West and emerging not as a cooperative ally but as a self-sufficient, militarized garrison state. It will view the West (particularly Washington) as unreliable, even duplicitous, shifting its focus to prosecute a more narrow conception of its national interests. This not only undermines transatlantic cooperation, but it will besides represent the final collapse of American influence in the region — a region where Washington erstwhile held unmatched sway.
Irreplaceable
Ultimately, Ukraine’s future as a European military power is not contingent on western support alone. The real origin driving Ukraine’s success – and its future strength – is the country’s own resolve. Ukraine is not just a battleground between global powers; it is simply a nation of 40 million people with a singular determination to defend its sovereignty. Ukraine has done more to degrade and destruct Russian combat power than any NATO associate always has. It has consistently challenged Moscow’s military on the battlefield, and its forces are now battle-hardened, seasoned, and capable in ways that fewer would have predicted at the start of the war. This is simply a country that will dictate its own future, with or without Washington.
Ukraine’s military innovation and adaptability should not be underestimated. It has shown that it cannot only withstand but actively counter Russian advances. The Ukrainian military’s usage of drones, long-range fire, and another cutting-edge technologies has been a game-changer, inflicting crucial losses on Russian forces. No another European country, including NATO members or even the US itself, has been tested to this degree in modern warfare. Ukraine has adapted faster and more effectively than any nation on the continent. And in doing so, it has demonstrated that it can proceed to fight, regardless of US or western oscillations.
If Washington continues to drag its feet or entertain unrealistic peace talks without Ukraine’s full participation, it risks pushing the country away. A Ukraine that feels betrayed or abandoned will not simply vanish – it will change. With military strength unmatched in Europe, prodigious natural resources, and an advanced defence industry, Ukraine will prosecute its own strategical interests, seeking fresh alliances and developing its own defence and safety policies. This shift could mark the beginning of a more fractured and unstable European safety environment, 1 in which the US no longer holds sway.
Ally or fortress?
Ukraine’s trajectory is now set. Whether with or without the West, Ukraine will stay a military power in Europe, capable of containing Russia’s ambitions on its own. The only question now is whether the West – primarily the US – wants to engage with Ukraine as a partner and ally, or whether it will let it to transform into a sceptical garrison state.
If Washington wants Ukraine and its considerable power to stay on its balance sheet, much little integrated into the European safety framework, it must admit the country’s agency and autonomy. The days of assuming that Ukraine will always request western lifelines are over. The US must decide, and the consequences of miscalculation are dire. The US must act decisively, or hazard losing Ukraine – and possibly Europe – entirely.
Ukraine does not request approval to fight for its survival. It has already proven that it will do so with whatever means it has. The choices made present will form European safety and the future of global leadership for years to come. Time is moving out for Washington to make the right decision. If it fails, the consequences will be felt across the continent for generations.
Kerel Dysler is simply a veteran European defence analyst with over 20 years of experience conducting defense-technical assessments regarding Euro-Atlantic safety requirements and operations. He most late served as a requirements officer with the Joint Operational Capabilities and Posture Review Group.
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