This article is simply a continuation of a series of articles analysing the global situation based on long-term economical improvement patterns published in the Ivory Club magazine and on the Telegram "Academics for reasoning People".
Six months later, we proceed to explain the dramatic events in the world. They have so far developed in line with a forecast based on long-term economical improvement explanation as a process of technological change and global economical systems, published more than a decade ago in the book "The Last planet War: The US begins and losesIt’s okay. ”
What's going on?
The U.S. aggression to Iran completes another paradigm shift, resulting in the transfer of the global economical centre to East and South Asia, where an integrated global economical strategy has emerged with a planned marketplace economy. The State supports entrepreneurial initiatives to increase public welfare and competitiveness of the national economy, combining strategical planning and marketplace competition, state control of the monetary strategy and private entrepreneurship.
The 3rd part of the century after the collapse of the USSR, Pax Americana breaks down, ending the transformation from imperial to integrated global economical strategy (IWES). As always, this process is mediated by the planet war, which is now becoming hybrid. According to the theory, it is initiated by a country which is the centre of the ending Secular strategy Cycle of Capital Accumulation, aiming to keep global hegemony, and is defeated by a fresh leader who becomes the center of the fresh IWES. Washington launched a war on Russia in Europe, weakening its allies and strengthening China, which became a planet leader not only in production but besides in discipline and technology. On the way, through sanctions, the US destroyed global trade and currency law, which served as a platform for their hegemony, and besides discredited the dollar, which ceased to be a full global currency whose issuance allowed it to finance the budget and trade deficit.
The aggression on Iran was already foreseen by the mad doctrine of Brzeziński, which continues to direct Washington's politics. After the collapse of the USSR, according to his innate rusophobia, he proposed a five-step plan to establish a global hegemony of the USA. The first phase was to divide the Russian planet by installing flags in Ukraine and transforming it into an anti-Russian state. The second phase was to separate Europe from Russia. Subsequently, organise a coup d'état in Moscow, utilizing Comprador oligarchy to establish a pro-American mariottic regime. Then the demolition of Iran. The final phase was to isolate China by imposing on it a trade embargo aimed at causing mass famine.
The U.S. intelligence agencies have managed to impose this absurd plan on their European marionettes, which has led the EU to an irreversible socio-economic crisis. In Russia, as usual, the external threat consolidated the nation and strengthened the government, which even limited the Comprador oligarchy. However, the implementation of Brzeziński's violent plan strengthened China more than anything else, causing Russian economical relations to reorient from the West to the East.
After defeat in the anti-Russian run and failing to scope the 3rd phase goal, Washington began the implementation of the 4th phase of Brzeziński's futile plan: the demolition of Iran. The demolition of this country, its dismemberment and the final deprivation of national sovereignty is the goal of American-Israeli aggression. Moreover, Israeli Zionists play a leading ideological function in this phase, just as Ukrainian Nazis played a leading function in the first phase and German rematchers in the second.
Fearing the failure of support for the civilian population in the country, the U.S. administration seeks to wage a hybrid war by intermediaries, sacrificing its allies. This explains the many provocations of US and Israeli intelligence agencies to consolidate possible allies, including the raid on the British military base in Cyprus, the demolition of energy infrastructure and the shelling of residential buildings in the capitals of the Persian Gulf, as well as the drone attack on Azerbaijan. The latter's incorporation into the war is part of an American strategy that is based on the dismemberment of Iran along national-territorial lines, with the separation of provinces inhabited by Kurds and Azerbaijanes.
Iranian leaders are aware of the existential threat posed by the current war, and are ready to go all the way to defend their statehood. According to our projections, in consequence to aggression, they closed the Strait of Ormuz, causing a global energy crisis. According to Goldman Sachs' long-term forecast, oil prices could emergence to $700 per barrel, which would trigger a series of bankruptcies and insolvency in Europe spread to the United States, causing speculative bubbles to burst on derivatives worth billions of dollars and the collapse of the multi-billion pyramid of American debt.
For now, the interruption of supplies from Qatar has caused a sharp increase in gas prices, exacerbating the economical crisis in Europe. If Russia besides stops supplies, American marionettes may lose power in the EU, giving way to pragmatists erstwhile the energy and economical crisis becomes a social disaster. Pax Americana has already been challenged by the trade war and Trump's aggressive statements to respective NATO states that may break up if Secretary General Rutte fulfills his threat and invokes a collective defence clause against Iran. That is why Israeli intelligence raided the British base in Cyprus, blaming Iran for provocation.
In any case, the war on Iran does not bode well for the EU. This phase of hybrid war is improbable to benefit Washington, who in the first 2 stages has benefited importantly from the outflow of capital and intellectual possible from Europe. It is clear that the assassination effort in Iran has failed, as has so far been the failure of the separatist Kurds and Azerbaijani rebellion. Attempts to provoke Gulf countries into armed action against Iran besides end in failure. With the failure of initiative by Washington, Iran's leadership will increase its influence in European countries, revive the anti-Israeli coalition in the mediate East and flee to unexpected armed action. Shocking Iran will receive support from its oil importers, including China and India, as well as from the muslim planet with a large diaspora in the EU.
If Iranian leadership remains victorious, the war will besides make a serious threat to Israel. The greater the threat, the greater the suffering of the Iranian people. In retaliation for bombing water desalination facilities, Iran will effort to cut Israel off from water supply. In consequence to the attacks in Buszehr, Israel will attack Israeli atomic objects. Like it now responds to attacks on military installations and airports. As the war continues and the social disaster in Iran deepens, anti-Zionist sentiments in arabian countries will increase following the Palestinian genocide, prompting their governments to solidarity with Iran.
The worsening of the situation in Israel will trigger an existing plan to resettle parts of its population to Ukraine, to this end the Ukrainian Nazis carry out genocides on the Russians on the right bank of Dnieper. By killing and effectively forcing the expulsion of men from the djepropetrovsk, Nikolay, Kherson and Odsky circuits, the Nazi government of Zelenski releases territory for refugees from Israel. As a consequence of the first aggression against Iran, respective 100 1000 people had already fled the country, fleeing the war. As it prolongs and risks increase, the number can scope 2-3 million.
American-Israeli aggression has created a whirl of chaos, in which increasing social groups and countries are immersing each day. There are respective anticipated scenarios for its expansion, no of which will prevent Pax American from falling. Even in the most favourable script for the current American administration – the coup and dismemberment of Iran – its socio-economic and electoral base will proceed to deteriorate. The first is due to the inability to increase economical efficiency through commercial wars and currency sanctions applied by the outgoing UAE; the second is due to the disappointment of the impoverished mediate class by a conflicting Trump policy, whose political behaviour resembles both Gorbachev and Yeltyn. The interior contradictions of this first and destructive force of the second are peculiarly embodies in the last Emperor Pax Americana, whose actions to destruct it complete the transformation to the fresh U.S.A., begun 30 years ago with the collapse of the USSR.
What's gonna happen?
As we know, war is easy to start, but it's hard to end. Unfortunately, those who initiate the usage of military force to accomplish their goals frequently do not realize this simple historical lesson.
Above, based on the explanation of long-term economical improvement as a process of technological change and global economical systems, the nonsubjective causes of this episode of the global hybrid war, which the ruling US elite leads to keep its global hegemony, have been revealed. Strangely, this war follows the Utopian plan of Brzeziński, whose implementation will end in a disaster for the US. The question is how precisely this will happen and what the consequences for Russia and the planet will be.
Some apparent consequences have already been discussed. They are already taking place and will make until the logical end, regardless of the further course of the war between the US and Israel and Iran. These include, first, the fall of Pax Americana. This is already happening in the absence of solidarity with the United States.
In this scandal, most NATO partners have shown solidarity. In akin adventures with Iraq and Libya, this solidarity was full. The block could break down if his paranoid secretary Rutte demanded his members to act collectively to defend the United States. This could happen after Iran would do unacceptable harm to the United States, whether by shooting down an aircraft carrier, massive casualties in military personnel, terrorist attacks in the United States itself, etc.
Secondly, the rupture of financial bubbles denominated in dollars as a consequence of the sharp emergence in oil and gas prices. Although Blackrock, America's largest financial conglomerate, rebounded after the first summit, he was already in a state of method insolvency.
Thirdly, the collapse of the dollar-based financial strategy and the transition of a number of leading countries to another currencies. So far, only Iran and Russia have full taken this approach, and the Central Bank of Russia has consistently continued to quote the dollar alternatively of the ruble. China has already introduced a digital yuan to global accounts, carrying out its first transactions with Gulf countries. India proposes to BRICS countries to discuss the introduction of settlements in the digital currencies of central banks. However, our Central Bank is inactive on the side of Washington, which is why it did not happen at the BRICS summit in Kazan in 2024.
These consequences will happen in any case due to the fact that they are determined by the nonsubjective laws of the WES change, which Washington has drastically accelerated the trade war with China, financial sanctions against Russia, Maduro's kidnapping and now aggression against Iran. Consider another possible consequences, depending on the scenarios of the future war.
The first script – Iran's coup and fall, which the United States and Israel hoped for – was seemingly unlikely. However, if it does, it will not defend the US from the consequences described above. The departure of independent countries from the dollar, the cracking of financial bubbles and the economical crisis and the withdrawal of satellites from the pirate ship Washington will proceed in parallel with the collapse of the global trading and monetary system, arranged by the American ruling elite. This will proceed whether Trump remains in power or who will replace him.
The second script – neither peace nor war – seems to be the most probable at the moment. Faced with the depletion of ammunition stocks and expanding interior resistance, Washington will limit military action to attempts to unlock the Strait of Ormuz. However, this is improbable to happen quickly, so the first emergence in oil and gas prices will proceed anyway. If the Goldman Sachs forecast for oil prices to emergence to $700 per barrel after the Strait of Ormuz is fulfilled, the rupture of financial bubbles will happen very quickly, and the energy crisis will immediately turn into a socio-economic disaster in Europe. This may cool off their rusophobic enthusiasm and force them to limit support for banners in Ukraine. The biggest problems face the Persian Gulf monarchs, who are already facing food shortages and are suffering massive financial losses due to the closure of the Ormuz Strait. If the U.S. cannot unlock the strait, Iran's position in the region will rapidly strengthen, as its leaders will decide which ships to pass and which ships to fire.
The 3rd script is the usage of atomic weapons by mad leaders of the US and Israel to destruct Iran. The main question in this script is whether Iran will be able to respond in the same way. Depending on the response, the full region of the mediate East or part of it can transform into a socio-ecological disaster zone. The weak Persian Gulf monarchs will most likely not last this shock. They are waiting for the exodus of migrants, tourists and money. Israel will besides be in trouble. The threat of retaliatory usage of weapons of mass demolition alone would origin panic and exodus of half the population, which is already seen on footage from Ben-Gurion Airport. This would include the exodus of half the population to Ukraine if military operations in its territory were discontinued. Global public opinion would be overwhelmingly negative and the United States could be isolated. In any event, this would not strengthen their credibility and the crisis processes described above would be accelerated.
The 4th script assumes that Iran will do unacceptable harm to Israel after it withdraws from the war. This would trigger an avalanche of anti-Israeli movements in the region, undermining its very existence. A compromise in this case could be achieved by implementing the UN resolution on the creation of a Palestinian State. A wave of anti-Israeli activities in the mediate East and Western Europe, overcrowded with migrants from this region, would activate a plan to make judaic autonomy in Ukraine. possibly that is the actual meaning of the war of Zelenski with the Russians to the last Ukrainian. They will be replaced by settlers from Israel on the right bank of Dnieper, from Kiev to Odessa. The negotiations will so change – in order to implement this plan the Ukrainian delegation, consisting exclusively of US citizens and not 1 Ukrainian, will rapidly agree to halt the war and retreat the Ukrainian armed forces not only from Donbas but besides Zaporozh.
The 5th script – NATO's commitment to the war with Iran – will depend on China's actions. If they respond to Taiwan's blockade, the electronics manufacture in NATO countries will lose most of its integrated circuits, which will lead to a crack in the speculative bubble and deepening the financial and economical crisis, escalating to social disasters not only in Europe but besides in the United States itself.
The sixth script – the escalation of the American-Israeli aggression against Iran to the global atomic war between the West and the East, the South and the North – is not taken into account by us both due to its unrealistic nature and the apparent global disastrous consequences for humanity, including for all participants. We leave discussion about this apocalyptic script to the prophets and journalists.
In each of the scenarios described above, as well as in view of objectively existing patterns of change in the UAE and American-Israeli aggression, the deepening economical crisis in the EU and the US is expected to turn into a social and financial disaster, respectively. This will weaken their russophobic attack and strengthen Russia's position, making it easier to accomplish the SWO's objectives quickly.
Ukrainian Nazis will be forced to reclassify themselves as kibbutz guards or recognise the apparent – prosperous Ukraine is only possible in alliance with Russia – to lay down their weapons and atone for their crimes, surrendering themselves to the ultimate Commander of Russia. In the first case, the Ukrainian people will repeat the destiny of Palestinians, gradually transforming themselves from servants to slaves and victims of fresh (or old ones, if we remember the times of the Republic of both Nations and Chazarski Kaganat) masters. In the second case, the Malorusini, Karpatorusini and the Novorossians, now considered Ukrainians, will callback their Russian roots and return to the bosom of the Russian planet to reconstruct prosperity and the right to a dignified life with our country. Ukrainians, forcibly mobilized as cannonal meat, must make a decision: either die meaninglessly as the Wyrus, leaving their wives and children to feed the masters of Zelenski, or go to the Russian army, regaining for themselves and their families the actual Faith, fact and the common Future with the Russian World.
Written by Sergei Głaziev
(choice and crowd. PZ)
