Tomohiko Taniguchi — a erstwhile peculiar advisor to the nipponese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's office. He is simply a specially appointed prof. at Tsukuba University and peculiar advisor to Fujitsu Future Studies Center. He was a guest of the Impact’25 event held on 14-15 May in Poznań.
IMPACT / pressmateProf. Tomohiko Taniguchi
Turkish Kamil: No cases. There are only signs. Is that a description of the planet changing in front of us?
Prof. Tomohiko Taniguchi: There will only be more. Worse times are coming.
Worst of the worst?
No, worst not, but worse.
Today, we are consumed mainly by wars in Ukraine and Gaza Strip. But the main events of the 21st century, or at least parts of it, will not take place in Europe. So what do you mean by the European dimension of the global chessboard?
Europe must look at China. perceive to me. It's the biggest economy in the world. If not now, soon. And that's gonna change a lot. A lot. Beijing already surpasses the number of US submarines, 5th generation aircraft, and so on. It will be a full fresh kind of power that no 1 has always seen in history.
Civilizations grew and fell.
But this is where the Leninist government uses digital technologies. It wasn't there before. any have even begun to call it digital laziness. That's a good word.
China's cunning plan for Taiwan
Americans have seen the threat in China for a long time, but the first individual to approach it so unequivocally and personally is Donald Trump. Will his decisions be ultimately, which may sound paradoxical, beneficial to China, or unfavorable?
The customs confrontations between China and the US have 1 goal: to show Beijing who will be the master of the situation. It's not you, Xi Jinping, but it's me, Donald Trump. I think it was a political message that Donald Trump wanted to convey to the Chinese regarding the function of the United States from the position of the Indo-Pacific region.
All countries but China, Russia and North Korea are curious in the continued strong engagement of the United States in the region.
What are the consequences?
The United States already has the top military advantage in the Indo-Pacific region, and soon, sooner alternatively than later, it will be further reinforced by cooperation with allied countries, especially Japan and Australia.
The planet is presently wondering if China will attack Taiwan. But does Beijing request to invade the territory that it considers to be rebellious to gain full control of it?
Military invasion is the final option.
So what will be expected? Not without reason the Communist organization of China stresses 2027 as a year of full readiness for final action towards Taiwan.
Xi Jinping looks at this word due to the fact that in 2027 he will gotta face another fight for leadership. Xi must so show the nation that he is simply a greater leader than even the founding father of Mao Zedong. However, they do not necessarily gotta make military invasions. There are many another options that I think Xi Jinping is considering almost all day.
Like what?
We are dealing with a immense tyrant in the global system. We observe the tyranny of Filipinos, the tyranny of Japanese, Taiwanese, Indian and Australians. And it will be even more visible. That's why we request to build a network of partnerships and alliances.
Taiwan will have its own presidential election. I think Chinese cyberwar experts are already trying to confuse Taiwan's public opinion. So they'll start with a soft game. After all, there are already plans to connect the island with the continent with 2 or 3 bridges. From an engineering point of view, building a bridge connecting Taiwan to China is not specified a hard task. The perfect script for the Chinese would be if the Taiwanese themselves decided that this might not be a bad thought or even a good one.
"Europe is more crucial than it might seem"
How should Japan respond to the reshuffling of geopolitical chessboards?
The position quo of Taiwan is of large importance. The worst script would be to include Taiwan in China, which would limit freedom of expression and thus the strategical space of Japan, as the confederate areas of Japan are maritime areas. This is of large economic, political and intellectual importance.
The possible partial withdrawal of Donald Trump from Central and east Europe can be received by Japan and South Korea as a signal to search for fresh allies.
Once the United States was so powerful that they were able to face 2 wars simultaneously on 2 fronts. Now it's impossible. The recently appointed Undersecretary of State for Defence Policy testified before the United States legislature that the US could afford only 1 war and small more.
Therefore, they focus the remaining resources on the center of the stage. From a U.S. perspective, it is an Indo-Pacific region. Japan, as the country where the largest U.S. military base is located outside their territory, will play an even greater function in the future.
What is Europe's function in this scenario?
I think that many people in Japan would like Europe to stay a guardian of crucial values, specified as human rights.
Is that enough? In technology, we are the mediocre and humiliated sister of China and the United States. At your request.
I think that, politically, Europe is more crucial than it might seem. Human rights, democracy and the regulation of law. These universal values have become universal thanks to many European countries that have chosen to adhere to these principles. So I would like the European countries to proceed showing their attitude and telling the Chinese that their strategy strangles people, that their strategy is not good. To innovate, you must keep an open system. specified interventions can be carried out by Europe at no cost.
Aren't you afraid of specified a script that, due to the actions of Donald Trump, Europe will even grin at China?
Some people can do that. Even in the Indo-Pacific region. There are people who would like to respond to the charm of the Chinese. But we gotta think long-term, due to the fact that in little than 2 years there will be mid-term elections in the United States.
If past is any clue, and sometimes the United States goes to extremes, then the pendulum can tilt the another way around. I think that given the fact that the United States is inactive an open country and their democratic strategy is functioning, it is besides early for anyone to delete the United States.
Two countries will decide our future
What about Poland?
Poland flourishes, achieving results far above its capacity, if you can say so. I think we have a lot to learn from Poland in this regard. I mean the Japanese. The nipponese economy is twice the size of French and 3 times the size of Russian, and the nipponese budget itself is as large as the economy of Saudi Arabia. Japan is so known as a country which achieves results far above its capacity.
The possibilities were peculiarly visible in the 1990s. For example, in the electronics industry.
That's true, and if you want to grow, you can either increase your labour or capital, which is investing in factories, or increase your productivity. The 3rd way remains for countries specified as Japan, whose society is rapidly ageing.
How do you imagine a planet this age?
The United States is the central point and the second is China. So these are 2 functions that will find the future of all of us in the world. China is now stable, but only on the surface. We must be prepared for a very bumpy way in China's future due to the fact that Xi Jinping is ageing, the Chinese population is already decreasing, and the economy is only doing well, not increasing as it has in the past.
For the United States, I fear divisions. The society will be even more divided. individual must come and heal the nation. I would very much like to see individual who could cure the United States to make them more balanced. And this will bring relief to the another democratic communities. I'd truly like to see that. Japan must stay vigilant, sober and reasonable, as it is adjacent to the most unstable countries: Russia, North Korea, China and the United States. Japan itself can do little. The way forward is narrow. We request allies and partners.
