ADP Reports Biggest Drop In Service-Provider Jobs Since COVID Lockdown

Having trended weaker for the last two months, analysts expected a modest bounce back in the ADP Employment Report for June (following the mixed picture from ISM/PMI for employment and another mixed bag from Challenger, Grey Job Cuts data this morning).

BUT… The headline print saw a 33k DROP in jobs in June (and a downward revision to +29k in May) – the biggest/first drop since March 2023

Source: Bloomberg

That is a 5 sigma miss from expectations…

And the biggest miss since Aug 2022 (third monthly miss in a row)…

„Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” said Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

After losing 2k jobs in May, Goods-Producing firms managed 32k job additions in June but Services providers saw jobs drop 66k – the biggest drop since COVID lockdowns…

Source: Bloomberg

The job losses were dominated by smaller businesses…

Job gains were dominated by Manufacturing and Transportation while job losses were dominated by 'Professional and Business Services’…

„Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth.”

• Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was little changed for June at 4.4 percent compared to 4.5 percent in May.

• Pay growth for job-changers was 6.8 percent in June, down slightly from 7.0 percent last month.

Of course this will all be blamed on Trump’s tariffs but it’s hard to see how that makes any sense given the surge in Manufacturing jobs (where the tariffs 'would’ hit) while Services (which we do not import) saw major job losses.

So, will Powell consider rate-cuts now?