The American manufacture has been making a luck selling its equipment for decades — whether fighters or air defense. Now the money rush can get twisted. If Trump wants to impose his will, Europe talks about "beating on the face" and reasoning about extremist change — Resigning orders from the US to defend home production.
It would surely irritate Trump, who, however, knows perfectly well that he has an ace up his sleeve. It can blackmail the countries of the Old Continent and force a change of decision. Europe underestimates this, calling it "mystification". However, dragging the line continues, and the first test is soon.
Although no extremist decisions have been made, informing lights are on in the capitals of allies. Both Portugal and Canada are delaying ordering Lockheed fighter Martin F-35 Lightning II, while France is again expanding its conventional force on European governments to buy more weapons in Paris.
Wednesday The European Commission has presented a 150 billion EUR weapons acquisition plan (about PLN 629 billion). It mostly excludes the United States.
— The sale of F-35 or U.S. systems will surely become more complicated for American companies, says Gesine Weber, an worker of the transatlantic think tank German Marshall Fund based in Paris.
— An crucial origin in the acquisition of the F-35 by European governments was the thought that the European defence would be built on a transatlantic basis in terms of strategy, institutions and capabilities, adding that "the Trump administration is in the process of disbanding the transatlantic link and so The acquisition of American systems will no longer have any added value for Europeans‘.
Repeated Trump's threats of taking Greenland and Transforming Canada into the 51st State of America; his question of whether the United States will fulfill its NATO commitment to come with the aid of allies; abrupt suspension of military assistance by his administration and exchange of intelligence data with Ukraine — all this has stirred Europeans.
“ 1 of the Western European defence officials says anonymously.
The stakes are advanced besides for American industry, and erstwhile US Ambassador Greg Delawie called Portugal and Canada's concerns about the F-35 "a gigantic political and economical red flag for our country".
Foreign sales are not just a bonus — it is essential to keep the American defence manufacture on the surface. In 2024, the full abroad military sales and direct commercial sales reached $317 billion (1 trillion PLN 225 billion).
If Washington allies start turning elsewhere — even gradually — this could yet weaken the wider American defence ecosystem. The F-35 is mounted in Texas, a state supporting Trump, while the MIM-104 air defence strategy The Patriot is produced in Florida, another red state.
"The change of views on the F-35 and wider views on the credibility of the United States as a defence partner and arms supplier reflect a possible change in global defence trade patterns," said Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners on Monday in a paper to investors.
— Even if it introduces quite a few uncertainty in relations, American platforms are inactive the best choice, and Europeans just can't get around that now, says anonymously elder head of the American defence manufacture in a conversation with POLITICO.
“ Europeans are not helped by buying worse systems,” adds the director. “This is not like imposing duties on Jack Daniels whisky, this is for their own national security.
Indeed, there is no fast solution to end purchases of American weapons, and any European capitals even reject concerns about the direction Washington is heading. "We want to strengthen transatlantic relations," said the Minister of National Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz to journalists in Paris this month.
Questions about future sale
Denmark will be the first test of Europe's readiness to reduce procurement with the US — a country which is now becoming the mark of Trump, which threatens Greenland, an autonomous part of the Kingdom of Denmark.
Copenhagen plans to choice 1 of the 2 air defence systems — the French-Italian SAMP/T NG and the American Patriot — under an agreement to be signed later this year.
The result of these talks will be a solid indication of whether Europeans are willing to support non-American alternatives.
W Canada — a country to which Trump is regularly threatened — the fresh Prime Minister Mark Carney referred to the F-35 in London, saying: "Taking into account the geopolitical environment ... prudent and in Canada's interest it is to review these options". about 16 jets from the 88 ordered by Canada have already been paid, but Ottawa can buy the remainder elsewhere, namely from the Swedish Saab, whose JAS-39 Gripen finished second after F-35 in a national fighter tender.
In Europe, the area for manoeuvre enjoyed by governments depends on whether the contracts have already been signed, the money spent and the weapons delivered.
The capitals of the associate States will find it hard to retreat from existing agreements, in peculiar in the case of F-35. any European countries, specified as the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, have already ruled that out.
Meanwhile, searching for another options would be very long and costly, talks about the American jet departing chief of the Swiss Air Force Peter Merz. Belgium fears the cost of the fleet with 2 different combat aircraft, the Minister of defence of Theo Francken states.
However, future sales are open.
Earlier this month, Portuguese defence minister Nuno Melo, whom country considering buying F-35, said: "We cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our elections", questioning Washington's credibility.
When asked whether the additional hundreds of billions of euros allocated by Germany for defence would be spent on American weapons, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius called for a "good balance between American and European equipment", adding that "we are learning, at least for now, that we should trust more on ourselves."
The sinister button of Americans
European officials and politicians underestimated specified concerns, and Belgian Francken called it "mystification".
However, the actual on/off button is not needed to importantly impede the usage of American military equipment. — There are 24 million lines of code, continuous updates are necessary, explains 1 European manufacture representative. — In the case of HIMARS and Patriots, the real problem is not software, but ammunition. Control is obtained by supplying ammunition and spare parts,” he stresses.
There are precedents in which the U.S. nullified arms sales agreements due to political change — specified as in Iran after the muslim Revolution, with Pakistan and erstwhile Turkey has decided to acquisition Russian air defence system.
“ Historically, this is what we do, but did we do it with allies? No, says an authoritative of the American defence industry. “But we are in unprecedented times, in which our credibility as an ally is questioned. So this is simply a reasonable conversation, he adds.
Europe wants to compete with the US. There is 1 “but”
A number of European diplomats say privately that Trump's actions prompt Europeans to reconsider procurement policy. However, they besides did not quit that the United States would stay a key partner.
“the Dutch defence minister Ruben Brekelmans told journalists this month.
The European Commission is presently in the process of financing and stimulating the European defence industry, bearing in head the long-term nonsubjective of independency of the continent from the United States. Capitals besides effort to fill key capacity gaps, specified as maneuvering missiles, sixth generation fighters, air defence and tanks.
European contractors are convinced that the Old Continent produces state-of-the-art weapons and has "technical capabilities" and "brains" to compete with the US, Eric Beranger, CEO of European rocket maker MBDA, told French radio.
American arms companies are afraid about EU action, including efforts to prioritise European suppliers. The Aerospace Industries Association, an American commercial group of 300 companies, asked the Washington Commercial Authority to retreat from this strategy last week — and to support production cooperation agreements and stronger transatlantic ties.
American companies besides emphasize that the quality of American weapons will keep them in play.
"European industrial base provides very good opportunities," says Vice president of Aerospace Industries Association for global Dak Hardwick. “But it is the Americans who supply the best opportunities,” he adds.
Meanwhile, the American defence manufacture warns American decision-makers to be aware of the risks if European allies effort to become independent of American weapons.
"We all request to remember that abroad partners straight support the U.S. defence manufacture base," concludes Hardwick.
