A poll knockout for the government. KO loses the Sejm, opposition in attack

If parliamentary elections were held today, the composition of the Sejm would have changed substantially – this is the consequence of a series of studies conducted by the Studio Opinion24 commissioned by Radio ZET. It is clear from the data that the current ruling coalition loses the majority and the regulation game includes Law and Justice and the Confederacy.

Survey: KO down, Confederate up

The survey was conducted in 3 waves – in January, April and late May. In each of them there was an increasingly unfavourable trend for parties forming the current government – civilian Coalition, 3rd Way and fresh Left. The last measurement, taken just before the 2nd circular of the presidential election (23–26 May), shows a serious reshuffling of election preferences.

Support for the party: differences are not large but matter

The latest survey shows that:

• Civil Coalition wins 32 percent support,

• Law and Justice – 30 percent,

• Confederation – 16 percent,

• Third Road and New Left – after 6 percent,

• Total – 4 percent,

• Other groups – 1%,

• Undecided – 5 percent.

Although the differences in support seem small, it is crucial to exceed the electoral thresholds. The 3rd Road, as a coalition, does not get the required 8%, and the parties together deficiency 1 percent point to enter the Sejm. That excludes them from the allocation of tickets.

Seismic Simulation: KO with Left no chance of most

After voting on parliamentary seats, the agreement of forces is as follows:

• PiS – 182 mandates,

• KO – 179 seats,

• Confederation – 84 mandates,

• New Left 15 tickets.

The 3rd Road and Together do not enter the Sejm. This means that the ruling majority (KO + Left) can only number on 194 places – is not adequate to hold power.

The Confederate may tip the scales. Bosak comments

The possible cooperation of law and justice with the Confederation gives them 266 mandatesWhich is the unchangeable majority in the Sejm.

Leadership can play a key function in this arrangement. Krzysztof Bosak made it clear:

"We will vote against the vote of assurance for Donald Tusk's government, but ideas for the creation of a method government are irrelevant due to the fact that there is no majority for them in the Sejm".

Poland on the threshold of political solstice?

Although it is only a survey, the repetition of the trend indicates that the situation may be moving towards a serious political shuffle. If the trend continues, the Law and the Confederacy will face a real chance of regaining power. In order to survive, KO will request not only support, but besides allies that – at this minute – are missing.