Lebanon has been an arena of regional rivalries and cultural disputes for decades. Source: Wikimedia Commons. licence – Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic. Author – Mary MadiganDespite the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the chaos in the mediate East continues. Israel's conflict with Hamas in Gaza continues. Iran's opposition satellites coordinate actions to destruct the ‘Zionist regime’. At the head of the United States, Israel's most crucial ally, Donald Trump is about to become. The global Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for the leaders of Israel and Hamas. What could happen in the mediate East? Will peace come, or will a large war begin?
For over a year, Israel's war with Hamas and Hezbollah terrorist organizations has attracted the attention of the world's public. As of October 7, 2023, erstwhile Hamas (from the Arabic: Muslim Resistance) began to invade Israel, tens of thousands of people, mostly civilians, died. The vast majority of victims are Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. At the same time, the Israeli-Lebanese border has been plagued by Israel's army since the outbreak of the war and has extended influence in Lebanon by the Shiite terrorist organization Hezbollah (Arabic: God's Party). As of 1 October, Israel's invasion to the south of Lebanon managed to weaken the structure of Hezbollah, but did not bring the conflict to an end.
An anxious truce in Lebanon
On 26 November, a ceasefire agreement was concluded between Israel and the Government of Lebanon. Mediators in the negotiations were the United States and France. Under the agreement, Israel is to retreat its forces from Lebanon within 60 days. At the same time, Lebanese troops are to gradually enter the area between the Litani River in the north and the border with Israel in the south. The Lebanon Army is to be, alongside UN UN peacekeeping mission troops UNIFIL, the only armed formation authorized to reside in the Lebanese-Israeli border. France and the U.S. are to guarantee that both parties respect the rules of truce.
Although intense fighting in the south of Lebanon is over, both Israel and Hezbollah accuse each another of breaking the truce. The Lebanese authorities say that the Lebanese army is not strong adequate and well armed to warrant peace on the border. France and the United States, as guarantors of the ceasefire, are to supply Lebanon's army with training and supplies of equipment that would let them to exercise control over the erstwhile parent of Hezbollah. The destabilising origin in the ceasefire is cultural and spiritual conflicts in Lebanon. In the eyes of many of the borderline residents of the Arab-speaking Shiites, Hezbollah is simply a group of freedom fighters. In turn, the army of Lebanon, which includes soldiers from many another spiritual and cultural groups, is seen as an occupier. The situation in the Israeli-Lebanese border is inactive uncertain, and an open conflict may erupt at any time.
The War Nightmare of Gaza
Gaza is inactive a battlefield between the Israeli army and Hamas members. Although Israelis have a immense advantage in the air and control the main arteries of Gaza and the surrounding area, Hamas has not been completely broken. His militants are inactive able to ambush Israeli soldiers, hiding among civilians. At the same time, the coming winter, with temperatures below 10 degrees Celsius and frequent rainfall, is likely to aggravate the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.
On November 21, the global Criminal Court (ICC) issued warrants for the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Binjamina Netanyahu, erstwhile Israeli Minister of defence Jo’awa Galant, and commander of the military structures of Hamas Muhammad Daif due to suspicion of work for war crimes and crimes against humanity. This is simply a blow to Israel's global reputation. Firstly, the ICC decision de facto evens Israel's work for war crimes in Gaza with Hamas. Secondly, Israel is the first democratic country in past to be prosecuted by arrest warrants of the ICC. Although the United States does not recognise the jurisdiction of the ICC, the arrest warrants themselves for Netanyahu and Galanta may lead to weakening the support of average Americans for Israeli politics. In addition, the Prime Minister of Israel will not be able to be certain of his safety during visits to 125 countries recognising the ICC. This may importantly narrow down his abroad policy manoeuvre.
What will the future bring?
Conflicts in the mediate East are confusing, but knowing is crucial to maintaining global stability. Israel's military successes call into question the effectiveness of Iran's strategy. There are doubts as to how much Iran is able to escalate tensions with Israel and the United States." Iran is weak and strong. It was akin with Russia in the first phase of the war in Ukraine. Iran has a unchangeable power structure, a very strong root. The government will not make a mistake from the times of the monarchy erstwhile the hand trembled at the time of the revolution. Iran has managed to weaken its global isolation in fresh years, including through cooperation with Russia. However, this does not translate into an increase in his real strength," noted prof. UAM Dr. Radosław Fiedler. Prof. UAM, Dr. Przemysł Osiewicz, notes that – the Iranians do not presently have the anticipation of wider competition either with Israel or with the United States. This is due to economical problems, i.e. US sanctions extended to exports, which work for Iran. In the past, Iran could transfer more resources to non-state actors specified as Hezbollah or Hamas. Today, these opportunities of Iran are less..
It will be crucial for the region to return Donald Trump to the White House. The American president-elect has repeatedly declared unconditional support for Israel's actions. However, both experts believe that Israel and the United States can search deescalation in the region. "There are hopes that the truce with Hezbollah will bring Israel closer to a akin agreement with Hamas. I realize that this is besides the intention of president Biden's administration. The aim may besides be to limit the scope of manoeuvre for escalation actions against Iran, which Trump could take in conjunction with Prime Minister Netanyahu, says prof. Osiewicz. In turn prof. Fiedler points out the interior conditions in Israel itself: "Israeli society is tired of war. It's not like Israel's soldiers have a technological advantage and the Hamas are on the plate. Israel notes the painful social failure of soldiers. Missiles fall on Israeli towns. It's not like this war is painless for Israel. Netanyahu appears to be trying to halt war on favorable terms.
The investigator emphasizes that the future Trump administration does not gotta give Netanyahu a free hand. Trump won't want a full-scale war with Iran. He will support Netanyahu, but will not support the fresh escalation. Trump creates himself as an efficient negotiator who ends various conflicts and disputes in a beneficial way for America. Others start conflicts, he ends conflicts. This is simply a communicative built during an election run around his abroad policy vision. Trump will search to exert maximum force on Iran with sanctions, avoiding armed confrontation," he explains.
The mediate East conflict is entering a fresh phase. Although the truce in Lebanon and the weakening of Iran may give hope of ending the fighting in Gaza, another areas of the mediate East stay restless. Inherited in civilian wars, Syria and Yemen may be the origin of fresh crises. In addition, the most crucial regional players inactive have conflicting interests. surely the situation in the mediate East requires constant attention. Only 1 incorrect decision can divide the planet from disaster.
Oskar KMAK
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