The words quoted above were spoken in February, which is on the threshold of the global trade war that Donald Trump had already full spread. At that time, the fresh American administration threatened with duties against Mexico and Canada, announcing them to press the brake and suspend them for another month. For the Mexican City rulers, this attitude was no surprise at all, in the end Trump's duties and even the complete suspension of bilateral trade with Mexico threatened already in his first term. But no 1 took this seriously — to the point that the NPR radio and the Los Angeles Times journalThey mostly wrote that without Mexican avocado, American supplies would end after 2 weeks.
Now, after the celebrated "Liberation Day", during which Trump released the blockade of a work draw device and practically blew up the post-war global economical system, it is known that even these most absurd threats, especially economical ones, must be taken seriously.
Claudia Sheinbaum is going to the White House.
On April 2, Mexico was spared — but only due to the fact that Trump had already announced a 25% work on products from this country and Canada. He then agreed to exemptions to products which are regulated under USMCA . It is NAFTA's successor, reformed just by Trump in his first word free trade region between the US, Canada and Mexico.
Associated Press/East News / Pool via AP / East NewsDonald Trump
According to CNN, zero duties proceed to apply to transactions in food products, electronics, industrial chemistry, clothing and textiles, pharmaceutical products and medical equipment. This is all crucial sectors, but not the most important. They cannot be compared to the production of steel, aluminium or, above all, the automotive industry, which accounts for almost a 3rd (30%) of all Mexican exports to the United States. According to the Washington Post, Claudia Sheinbaum He is going to the White home in April, in order to convince Trump to further customs exemptions.
The discussion of duties and their long - word consequences cannot, however, be held outside the local contexts — and Mexico’s example shows this most clearly. This was well explained in an interview with Gideon Rachman of the Financial Times by Luis de la Calle, a lawyer and economist dealing with competitiveness and global trade, 1 of the main negotiators active in the talks from which NAFTA emerged in the 1990s. He explained that comparing the impact of customs on the economies of Mexico and Canada — although nominally equally advanced — is simply a perceptive error. erstwhile Rachman pointed out to him that Mexicans are poorer than Canadians as a society and so a larger number of workers can feel the negative impact of customs due to the fact that they have no financial cushion — de la Calle countered, stating that it was not a problem, but an asset.
In his opinion, a shorter distance between Mexicans and poorness makes them more resilient, capable of seeking fresh solutions, creative. Besides, the economist added, The economies of both countries are so closely linked that any decision made by the White home — good in effect or bad — will shortly affect the Mexicans. Greater industrialisation and increase of production in the US will yet give the same effect on the confederate side of the border. Therefore, he concluded de la Calle, and Mexico may have reason for a delicate optimism — greater than the remainder of the world.
But if you look for the origin of this optimism — you should start with Claudia Sheinbaum, elected last year as president of the first female in Mexico history.
"Hard" President
This election, without depreciating her individual success, was just a plebiscite for her home party, Moren, and her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. As the outgoing president pointed to Sheinbaum as his successor, and himself finished his word with advanced public support and the country's modernisation label, he gave the candidate an excellent starting position. The vote for it in practice simply marked the continuation of the direction which was designated by the six-year word of Lopez Obrador, which began in 2018.
Carl de Souza / East NewsClaudia Sheinbaum
And although her ability to argue Trump's aggressive authoritarianism is evidently admirable — Even the president of the United States himself appreciated it, calling Sheinbaum "hard" — It is not said that her political course is simply a universal recipe for combating the American conservative phrase. For now, the president of Mexico is evasive of planet trends, as stressed by Ezra Klein, a writer at the fresh York Times opinion department. He pointed out that last year the remaining power of the option that ruled during or just after the coronavirus pandemic was bordered on a miracle. akin observations were made by dozens of another commentators and publicists due to the fact that the trend was painfully obvious.
The long-term effects of pandemic recession, social isolation, technologically uneven improvement and forced isolation only began to be felt now. They blew up politicians from the left and right sides of the stage, young and experienced. Sheinbaum, considered to be a continuation of the power of the pandemic era, is 1 of the fewer exceptions — a reason for praise, but besides evidence of the specifics of the Mexican political market.
But this image is not flawless — and well shades of grey in the résumé of Mexican policymakers described another fresh York Times journalist, Michelle Goldberg. She recalled that Sheinbaum is inactive a left-wing populist — so, let us be clear, a typical of intellectual power, of which we know small about in Europe, due to the fact that she did not appear here. While the evil of European intellectuals in fresh years has been right-wing, nationalistic, disfellowshipping populism, many of them have forgotten its Latin, pro-social variety.
To mention here is the French historian Pierre Rosanvallon or Dutch political scientist Casa Mudde, a well-known expert on right-wing radicalism. Their publications became textbooks for the explanation of populist phenomena — but the left did not mention a word.
Meanwhile, Sheinbaum is simply a tradition heiress not only of its predecessor, but besides of figures specified as Nestor and Cristina de Kirchner in Argentina, Lula da Silva in his first presidential incarnation in Brazil of the early 2000s, and even of politicians who ended up outside the bracket of democracy — like Evo Morales in Bolivia.
In practice, this means that it is not specifically attached to free media and independent justice. Especially with the latter, he has been in permanent conflict since Lopez Obrador had prepared a complete and immediate improvement of justice. 1 of the last moves in his word was the preparation of a bill introducing universal and democratic elections to all state and national judges positions. In short, each of the 6,000,730 judges in Mexico must resign and stand for election — in the image of the American system, where the justice strategy has functioned so almost since the beginning of the republic. Sheinbaum supported the improvement even before winning the presidential election — and already during her word she pushed it through parliament. And despite the gigantic opposition.
According to the NPR radio, first in the autumn of last year, the full jury strategized and then 11 of the 14 ultimate Court judges resigned, announcing that the democratic elections would not take part — 1 of them even told the NPR reporter that being a justice was “not a competition for popularity”.
It didn't do much good, the elections will take place in June. Given the degree to which corruption, the violent (literally) and the shadowed fight against organised crime can be overcome by an election run in Mexico, victims can already be counted. At the same time, Sheinbaum translates the improvement "with a step towards giving power to citizens".
Like her predecessor, it happens to demonize media, especially investigative journalists. It cuts off backing to control and supervisory institutions, strengthens the repression apparatus. At the same time, it maintains a policy of direct cash transfers, which is the flagship policy of Latinist left-wing populists. What happens (often rightly) is criticised in European countries, however, on the another side of the Atlantic frequently takes the test, due to the fact that money put into hand is the most effective tool for bringing people out of utmost poverty. This is the main reason for the success of the “home zero” programme (cf. “zero hunger”), which led Lula to bring millions of young Brazilians out of poorness in particular.
The young left, frightened of Trump, takes on banners a Mexican politician. And he makes a mistake.
Sheinbaum so continues the solutions of the predecessor — state scholarships for young people in vocational education or pension support for the oldest citizens. It works because 7% of the population inactive lives in utmost poorness in Mexico, or just over 9 million citizens. With specified a social structure, it is easier than in rich countries to accomplish spectacular success — it simply starts with a lower ceiling. Doesn't mean the another countries have a chance to replicate this model.
And it is in this conviction that 1 should look for the essence of the uniqueness of Claudia Sheinbaum as a pattern of anti-Trumpian attitudes. It was in Michelle Goldberg's already mentioned text that she accurately described, citing many talks with Democratic organization congressmen and young people, frequently representing something like European socialism activists of this party. Many of them have already spoken openly about the repetition of Sheinbaum's strategy, or at least her kind of government and public statements, as the key to defeating Trump and the MEGA movement. Goldberg notes here the analogy with the erstwhile Prime Minister of fresh Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, who played a akin function among the young leftist in the first word of the current US President. The problem is that this did not translate into anything at all, due to the fact that Ardern was the head of the government of a tiny and economically not peculiarly crucial country, she was besides a victim of the above-mentioned trend of punishing the pandemic governments by voters. Today, a young left, frightened of Trump, takes on the banners of a Mexican politician — and makes a mistake.
EPA/ISAAC ESQUIVEL / PAPClaudia Sheinbaum during a press conference at the National Palace in Mexico, 11 March 2025.
Michelle Goldberg rightly notes that the idealization of Sheinbaum by today's American Democratic opposition is simply designing her own dreams and fears. Democrats in the United States, like almost all country in the world, are so dramatically thirsty for a charismatic leader who would lead their further conflict that they hold on to all lifeline.
On a smaller scale, Prime Minister Donald Tusk suffered the same effect in Europe a year and a half ago, praised for defeating populists in elections more outside Poland than in the country. The European progressive camp regarded his triumph as an impulse that would halt the cavalcade of the far right on the Old Continent — although even Tusk himself said that he had to focus mainly on doing his own country.
The same will be actual of Sheinbaum, who can besides deal with Trump, or alternatively usage him to intensify his fight against drug cartels. Therefore, bringing both politicians together is not excluded, even if they are playing hard against each other. That is why this analysis concludes as much apparent as it does at this phase of global change. Even if there are opponents of American post-liberalism in all countries, each will gotta make its own prescription to fight this phenomenon. A common, mobilizing mass, but embedded in local contexts — only then can these strategies succeed. There's no another way. Everyone has to do it on their own. And Claudia Sheinbaum seems perfectly aware of that.
