Since Donald Trump's return to the White House, European leaders have spoken a lot about sovereignty and defence. The representatives of European governments have told POLITICO that they realize that the time has come to turn words into deeds, but they fear that it may not be easy.
French president Emmanuel Macron speaks of the request for "an amazing awakening", and future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz describes the situation in which Europe is located as "five minutes to midnight". However, any people are afraid that events are happening faster than Europe can handle them.
EU leaders fear not only the United States but besides any EU members. Although they declare they intend to come up with concrete solutions, They are already preparing for a pro-Russian group of leaders led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to destruct these efforts.
The number of topics discussed and the spectrum of deficiency of unity mean that this is simply a summit that may make in different directions. Leaders will wonder how they can rapidly redirect resources to strengthen national armies while trying to show support for Ukraine, for example by confirming its way to EU membership. They will besides effort to item their opposition to Vladimir Putin's government and possibly commit to another circular of sanctions.
In short, it won't be easy.
"The future of Europe is at stake"
‘Europe faces a clear and current threat on a scale that no of us have seen in our adult lives” wrote European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday in a letter to EU leaders. "The future of free and sovereign Ukraine — a safe and prosperous Europe — is at stake," she added.
Viktor Dabkowski / PAPpresident of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen at a press conference at the European Commission in Brussels, Belgium, on 4 March 2025.
The Thursday summit follows a series of groundbreaking events that took place across the Atlantic.
Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer They tried to win the American president last week.But since then things have taken a much worse turn. Following Trump's disastrous encounter with Volodymyr Zelenski in the Oval Office, the Republican decided to suspend military aid for the war-stricken country.
Military backing was not traditionally an area of EU action. However, EU leaders will gotta find a solution to this at central level.
— Defence spending becomes a constant cost said 1 European diplomat. “Every day you gotta pay for ammunition, at least for a fewer years, until Trump dies,” he said.
Europe responds to US decision
One of the first issues to be discussed by leaders is announced on Tuesday by von der Leyen plan unlocking up to EUR 800 billion (more than PLN 3.3 trillion) additional defence spending in the coming years.
This proposal assumes that the EU will lend EUR 150 billion (PLN 623.2 billion) to EU governments to finance equipment in areas specified as anti-aircraft and rocket defence, artillery systems, missiles, ammunition, drones and another needs.
The Commission besides proposes to loosen EU spending rules to enable governments to strengthen their armed forces. According to von der Leyen, allowing countries to increase defence spending by 1.5% of GDP over 4 years would translate into around 650 billion euro (more than PLN 2.7 trillion) throughout the block.
Her Tuesday press release, though planned for any time, was the consequence to the U.S. decision to suspend aid to Ukraine two EU officials informed. The European Investment Bank has besides announced that it proposes to amend its rules to facilitate the financing of defence projects.
EU diplomats and officials are inactive examining the details of these proposals, but they are mostly considered the first step in the right direction.
“ Von der Leyen tries to catch the bull by the horns, ” said an anonymous French minister. — But will the technocratic structure of the EU follow it? — he wondered.
Leaders are besides to discuss the usage of Russian assets that have been frozen since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Interest generated by assets worth EUR 200 billion (PLN 830.9 billion) is already utilized to finance aid to Ukraine. However, any countries, including France, tend to have a more controversial thought of taking over the assets themselves. Opponents of this plan say that legal obstacles will be an obstacle and that this may origin financial instability.
Hungary’s refusal
There are already discussions on sending more military support to Ukraine. Officials expected the summit message to include the plan announced last period by the head of EU diplomacy Kaja Kallas. It concerns the dispatch of at least 1.5 million artillery ammunition to Kiev this year, as well as another equipment specified as air defence systems, missiles and drones.
The latest draft document, to which POLITICO has reached, calls on ministers to guarantee that arms supplies advance. Officials admitted that Hungary would not agree to this.
The draft message stressed that the EU "will proceed to supply Ukraine with regular and predictable financial support".
In 2025, the block will supply Ukraine with EUR 30.6 billion (more than PLN 127.1 billion) of aid, with payments from the EU Kiev support instrument of EUR 12.5 billion (over PLN 51.9 billion) and around EUR 18 billion (74.8 billion) at the initiative of the G7 countries. Future funds will most likely come from the Rearm Europe plan, an initiative announced on Tuesday by von der Leyen.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials, responding to the U.S. announcement to retreat from military aid, make a good face for the bad game.
— This is very painful, but not fatal," said POLITICO a high-ranking Ukrainian official. “This will cost Ukraine unnecessary death and lost territories, but it will not lead to its failure.
