During the session of the Verkhovna Rada on October 16th, the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his “Victory Plan”, which will become the main tool of Ukrainian diplomacy and complements the country’s overall approach to ending the war. This paper should be considered as a consistent continuation of the “Peace Formula”, which was discussed in the framework of erstwhile consultations and global summits. How will it work?
The expression provides a clear imagination from Kyiv on the model of peace and specifies Ukraine’s intentions for each individual component of the political settlement – from guaranteeing economical and environmental safety to restoring territorial integrity. The plan is simply a “road map” for how to accomplish the goals of the formula, a list of solutions and resources that are needed to guarantee the final consequence and win the war next year. Both papers are basic elements of a single strategy.
Their contents and the president’s speech in the parliament let us to draw respective crucial conclusions:
First of all, Ukrainian political and military leaders believe that there is the anticipation to end the war in 2025, but only through the full implementation of the triumph Plan. another options – which affect territorial compromises and weak safety guarantees – have not been considered by Kyiv. The refusal of Ukraine’s allies to support the plan will not lead to a revision of the goals announced by the Ukrainian leadership but will bring the war into a long-term phase. The president recorded the refusal of Kyiv to look at mid-term decisions or the manifestation of a “flexible position” in strategical issues, which were actively discussed in advance by the global media.
Secondly, Ukraine does not regulation out a political and diplomatic settlement but it does not see it as possible under the existing circumstances. The joint approach should be based on “inducing Russia to negociate through force and coercion”, which is based on the Ukrainian position previously presented in the Peace Formula.
The triumph plan consists of 5 fundamental provisions and 3 classified annexes, which have already been handed over to strategical partners in a confidential format. The first point is geopolitical. It provides for an urgent invitation of Ukraine to NATO, which should become an influential political signal all while establishing the trajectory of the war’s end and the subsequent safety architecture of east Europe. At the same time, Kyiv is sceptical of compromise formulas, specified as partial integration into NATO or something similar.
The second point is safety. Ukraine calls on its allies to supply everything essential for a Ukrainian triumph and forcing Russia to make peace. In another words, Volodymyr Zelenskyy expects that for the sake of a faster and fairer end to the war, the US and another partners will abandon half-measures and approaches in the format of “controlled escalation or regulated volumes of military-technical support”. Instead, they will hopefully decision on to much more decisive actions.
Among the applicable elements of the public paper and the president’s speech, the following crucial points should be highlighted:
The timely supplying of the Ukrainian armed forces. We are talking about the transfer of the essential weapons that will let Kyiv to inflict defeat on the Russian troops on the battlefield. According to various estimates, Ukraine is preparing a large-scale military reserve consisting of 10 to 12 brigades, which can be effectively utilized in the 2025 campaign. However, they request appropriate armament.
Investments in the Ukrainian military industry. Conditions request to be created for the financial stimulation of arms production within Ukraine.
Continuing the operation in the Kursk region. The successes achieved in establishing control over Russian territories request to be supported by plans that do not support maintaining them indefinitely. Instead, they should be utilized to encourage the Russian government to end the war.
Granting long-awaited approval to usage long-range military objects across the operational and strategical depth of Russian territory. These should be able to be utilized in operations that are mostly offensive in nature.
Developing an effective air defence system, with the provision of fresh systems and ammunition for them.
Strengthening coordination at the level of information exchange, primarily concerning satellite data. This would let Ukraine to more effectively hit Russian military targets.
Making a decision regarding the impact of Russian missiles or drones over Ukrainian territory by NATO forces. In fact, Ukraine hopes that it will be possible to find a solution that would let neighbouring countries to aid defend themselves against uncontrolled Russian aerial targets by striking them within the defined limits of Ukrainian territory.
The 3rd point involves deterring Russia. This envisages a crucial strengthening of Ukraine’s non-lethal military capabilities and the transformation of the country into a powerful military outpost, which will prevent any hazard of repeated escalation by Russia.
The basis for the implementation of the 3rd point could be memorandums on cooperation, which were previously signed by the president of Ukraine in a bilateral format with another leaders of NATO countries. They include both military and method support for Ukraine, as well as the financing of programmes for the improvement of the military manufacture on Ukrainian territory. This will supply the Ukrainian economy with opportunities to make a production infrastructure that will meet the needs of the armed forces.
The 4th point is economic. Ukraine has strategical reserves of fertilizers worth tens of trillions of dollars, which will be of fundamental importance to the economy of the future (lithium, titanium, uranium, etc.). Their joint usage will supply an effective impetus for the recovery of Ukraine, as well as a resource base for economical growth in the US, the EU and their partners.
Ukraine is curious in reaching agreements on the reliable protection of assets of strategical importance. There is simply a subjective feeling that the engagement of certain countries in Ukraine’s reconstruction programmes will depend on the level of their integration into the implementation of the triumph Plan.
The 5th point is safety after the war. The president of Ukraine emphasizes that after victory, Ukraine will have a strong and experienced army that has undergone real combat operations. As part of coordination with partners, the Ukrainian side is ready to offer the deployment of its own forces on the territories of another NATO countries, including to replace the American military. It is worth remembering that the plan has 3 secret appendices to the second, 3rd and 4th points, which contain clear details of those weapons and applicable military solutions that Kyiv will discuss with its partners.
Thus, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has presented a clear strategical framework concerning how Ukraine sees triumph and how it can be achieved. another options are inactive off the table. In Kyiv, they are not ready to quit their erstwhile goals and will not surrender to Russia.
After the presidential elections in the US, Ukrainian diplomacy will make more efforts to persuade the incoming Trump administration that supporting of Ukraine is not a burden, but an opportunity. In the case of the US and a Trump administration – to assist it in pursuing American global interests and to counter the anti-western coalition which includes the Russian Federation, Iran and North Korea.
In the case of the EU – this would mean building a fresh effective safety shield and modernizing military capacities to become more influential and capable to safe itself from real threats.
Anton Naychuk is the manager of the East European Council, a think tank and public diplomacy club established to investigation and discuss current political, economical and social processes in east Europe and Central Asia.
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